Interest rate cuts optimistically, inflation pessimistically

The market rebounded strongly over the past week. The main factors are that the July CPI report was calm and interest rate cuts in September were almost confirmed, and concerns about a recession were diminished due to strong economic data.This has generated positive feedback on the stock market.

The sharp decline in the market around 8/5 was due to position adjustments, and there were no basic changes in the economy, but the macroeconomic impact on the rebound is significant.

Also, it is interesting that long-term government bond yields are stable.

Debates about the American economic recession have come to an end, and some investment banks have lowered the probability of a recession.

Next week's focus isChairman Powell's speech at Jackson HoleIt is.

The market is expecting interest rate cuts in September, and Powell mentioned economic growth rates and inflation rates,Show signs of interest rate cutsYou can think of it.