Interest rate hikes for next week's Bank of Japan meeting are expected to advance ahead of schedule even with no change in October

At the monetary policy meeting to be held next week, only about 30% of economists expect that additional interest rate increases will be decided along with a reduction plan for government bond purchases.

Research Report: 70% maintained the status quo at the BOJ July meeting - 40% were concerned about weak consumption

　　What was pointed out as a reason to anticipate interest rate hikes being postponed at this meeting is sluggish private consumption. In the survey, 43% answered that private consumption is too weak for interest rate hikes now. Mori Shotaro, senior economist at SBI Shinsei Bank, said, “Based on the fact that consumption continues to stagnate, I believe it is necessary to determine the degree of impact of wage increases over the summer on consumption and prices in order to take additional interest rate increases.”

There are many views that the simultaneous decision with the reduction plan for government bond purchases has raised the hurdle for raising interest rates. In response to the question of whether they think the decision on the reduction plan lowered the possibility of interest rate hikes, “yes” and “no” lined up at 41%. President Kazuo Ueda has stated that simultaneous decisions are “quite possible.”

　　BNP Paribas Securities'sChief economist Ryutaro Kono pointed out that if interest rates are raised at this meeting, there is a possibility that the market will begin expecting interest rate hikes once every 4 months or so. If the economic and price situation is not drastically out of sight, we are in a state where interest rate hikes can be justified at any time, but “I think they will decide that there is no urgent need for interest rate hikes to the extent that they dare to reduce government bond purchases at the same time.”