Interest rate trends continue to focus → focus on CPI and FOMC minutes/select inflation/Japan-US summit theme stocks, AI semiconductor stocks

The non-firm payroll announced last Friday was as expected, and the content was strong, exceeding market expectations. The unemployment rate also fell to 3.8% from 3.9% the previous month, showing the strength of the US employment situation. Received the same statistics,The probability of interest rate cuts at the FOMC in June fell below 50%, and “leave interest rates unchanged” prevail. In the market, interest rate cuts were moved backwards from June to July, but the impact on Friday's market was limited. The US Benchmark 3 indices all rebounded, and above all, the Dow rebounded for the first time in 5 business days.Buybacks to AI semiconductor brands were supporting the market, and the inflow of funds into the industrial consumer goods sector was clearIt's there.

In fact, the US FCI-G (the Fed is an index that measures the US financial environment, and financial environment impulse for economic growth) has once again turned into a negative zone since November last year, and it seems that the accommodative US loan environment has led to a recovery in the rice river industry (resources, etc.) and the manufacturing industry. This was also read in recent increases in ISM manufacturing index supply and copper prices.As the US manufacturing industry recovers, it is likely to lead to an increase in PPI, etc., and the focus may once again be on the inflationary environment. In addition to resource stocks, the inflow of funds into inflation-related stocks such as agricultural machinery Deere (DE) and the membership-based supermarket Costco (COST)I can think of it. This week's market will continue to search for clues to interest rate trends, and the focus is on the CPI and FOMC minutes on the 10th, and attention is being paid to bank accounts such as City and Wealth Fargo starting on Friday.

As a strategy for this week, first follow the buyback trend for AI semiconductors,Is it AI brands that continue to have upward momentum, or major semiconductor brands that have undergone slight adjustmentsI would like to list them. As for AI-related stocks, there is a high probability that Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) will continue their upward momentum, and there are developments that are further upward, but I would like to expect Service Now (NOW) to break through the 800 dollar mark. Note, in addition to wanting to implement middle stocks such as NVDA (NVDA) and ARM (ARM), which have been adjusted for semiconductor stocks, support is visible for Astella Labs (ALAB), which recently completed listing, at 70 dollars, and the trend of push buying at the current level is increasing.

Another important event this week is Prime Minister Kishida's visit to the US. There is also a presidential election year,Strengthening cooperation in Japan-US defense, semiconductors, etc. with China in mind was the main topic at the summitIt is expected that it will be taken up as As a direct benefit, there is a high possibility that Low Kid Martin (LMT) will be selected due to additional purchase predictions to F35, etc., and it is expected that the 500 dollar mark, which is currently at the upper price milestone, will be tested. Also, there is a possibility that production enhancements in Japan will be mentioned in the semiconductor field,In addition to equipment manufacturers such as AMAT and KLA, the importance of arm architectures under the umbrella of SoftBank is expected to attract attention again. Above all, they predicted an upward trend in Taiwanese cicada (TSM) stocks, which were reported to be about 1.2 trillion yen in subsidies from the Japanese government, and they also tried updating the high price of ASE Technology (ASX)I can think of it.