Until the employment statistics are released, interest rates and USD/JPY are high against the yen.
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新div OP : Although the economy is strong, the movement of the exchange rate has been volatile in 22. At the end of the year, there was a rise in interest rates.
In December, the FOMC, the Bank of Japan's policy meeting on the 18th and 19th followed by the Fed's policy interest rate outlook for next year and 25, if it remains high, attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's policy interest rate next year.
Particularly in 25, employment statistics and the unemployment rate need to be watched out for, and it is doubtful whether the correct data has been properly presented under the Biden administration.
新div OP : By the way,
From December of 22 to January of the following year
From December of 23 to January of the following year
The yen is declining
It might be a good idea to convert the dollar as much as possible at the lowest point of the dollar/yen.
If the exchange rate is near 140-160 dollars, buy on a high yen
Sell on a weak yen
新div OP : Need to see how far the yen appreciation will go.
新div OP : The downtrend of the candlestick chart is like a falling knife. Probably. The focus is downwards.
新div OP : On November 15th, the price dropped by 6 yen from 156 yen in two weeks from the ceiling. Be prepared for a range of 145 yen to 140 yen.
新div OP : In 2022 and 2023, especially towards December to January, the intentions of the FRB's policy interest rates have a significant impact. In December 2022, there was considerable selling pressure due to concerns about economic downturn at the beginning of the year, as it was suggested that rate hikes would continue. In December 2023, although rate hikes were paused, the 3 rate cuts within the year were quite different from the market's anticipation of 6. Rate cuts are being delayed while observing economic indicators. Given that December's outlook on the FRB's future policy interest rates has a significant impact on interest rates and USD/JPY, there may be a good buying opportunity depending on USD/JPY and interest rates from the end of the year to the beginning of the year.
新div OP : At the end of 2022, over the course of two years until the end of 2023, if the Nikkei average declines from December to January, it will likely rise significantly in February. Especially in February 2024, it was amazing.
Currently, there is considerable attention on the monetary policies of the central banks of Japan and the United States for December, similar to last year.
Considering Trump's inauguration after January 20th, there is no expectation for the Nikkei average to reach a new high by the year-end. There is no expectation for Ishiba and Ueda's combination to lead to a new high. With the upcoming House of Councillors election next year, it will likely drop by then.