iPhone 16 series production data update: shipment plans for 3Q24, 4Q24 and 1Q25, EMS order allocations, etc

1. The 2024 shipment forecast for the iPhone 16 series increases slightly from 87–88 million units to 88–89 million units (compared to the 2023 iPhone 15 series of around 91 million units), mainly driven by higher demand for the iPhone 16 standard version. iPhone 16 standard version, iPhone 16 Plus, iPhone 16 Pro, and iPhone 16 Pro Max account for approximately 26%, 6%, 30%, and 38% of iPhone 16 series shipments in 2024, respectively.
2. iPhone 16 series shipments for August and September are around 9 million and 16 million units, respectively. Based on Apple’s new product announcement schedule, it’s estimated that Apple prepares 15–17 million units for iPhone 16 pre-orders.
3. 3Q24 iPhone 16 series shipments are expected to grow about 10% YoY compared to 3Q23 iPhone 15 series. This growth isn’t due to better demand for the iPhone 16 series but because the iPhone 15 Pro Max, the best-selling model, had weaker shipment momentum in 3Q23 due to lower production yields of its tetraprism camera in the early stage.
4. 4Q24 iPhone 16 series shipments are projected to reach around 63 million units, representing a 5–7% YoY decline compared to 4Q23’s iPhone 15 series.
5. 1Q25 iPhone 16 series shipments are expected to decline significantly by 53–55% QoQ, primarily due to the seasonality and the potential cannibalization impact of the new iPhone SE4.
6. Strictly speaking, the only iPhone EMS providers are now Foxconn and Luxshare ICT. Since July this year, Luxshare ICT has become the largest shareholder in Pegatron’s iPhone manufacturing business. Foxconn and Luxshare ICT are responsible for 55–60% and 40–45% of iPhone 16 series shipments, respectively.
7. The pre-order of the iPhone 16 series could influence production plans for the second half of 4Q24 and 1H25, making the pre-order result the next point to watch closely.