Iran-Israel War Observation
1. The situation in the Middle East has always been conducted in the form of "proxy wars", with pro-Iranian forces such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Syrian government, Hamas, and Iraqi militias having had conflicts with Israel along the border.
2. Iran has the largest armed forces in the Middle East and is seen as the supporter behind these "proxy wars."
3. On April 1, 2024, Israel air-dropped bombs on the Iranian consulate in the capital of Damascus, Syria, killing some senior commanders and officers suspected of being in contact with "proxies."
4. Iran has stated that it will retaliate after the attack.
5. It is reported that the Iranian Foreign Minister informed the United States a week ago that it would respond to Israel with "moderation" and "non-escalation", and also notified allied and Western countries.
6. Last Friday, the United States stated that Israel would be attacked by Iranian drones within 24-48 hours, and Iran demanded that the United Nations condemn Israel or it would launch an attack.
If Iran attacks Israel as expected, Iran claims to have achieved the desired effect and says that the punishment for Israel has ended; at the same time, Israel also claims to have almost completely intercepted drones from Iran.
Israel and neighboring countries such as Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon have announced the reopening of their airspace.
The usa condemns Iran but does not seek to be involved in a war with Iran.
Observation:
Looking at Iran's entire military operation, the advance warnings given, along with the launch of drones and missiles, quickly stating that 'the punishment for Israel has ended,' seems like an attempt to avoid further escalation.
Iran's consulate was bombed, and as the largest military force in the Middle East, making a counterattack seems inevitable.
This Iranian counterattack did not cause any substantial damage to Israel, the level of harm was not high, but it holds significant symbolic importance.
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SpyderCall : good read.
So, do you think Isreal will retaliate?
I assumed that they would retaliate and the markets would make big swings. But I didn't know that Iran let foreign powers know that they were going to attack. I also didn't know that Iran only wanted a proportional retaliation without escalating the situation into all-out war with Isreal. This makes it seem like much less detrimental for financial markets.
I am very curious to see how futures markets will open today. Do you think some assets will have big moves? Like oil, gold, etc? Or do you think this unsuccessful barrage of missiles is a no-news event?
102502703 : there's opinion the measured attack by Iran exposed the weaknesses in Israel's defence, a learning experience event.
Iran is said to have used low cost tech to discover holes in Israel's iron dome. A brilliant strategy for an upcoming asymmetrical war.
twitter.com/Rea...
kelvinkew : An exploratory attitude. It's not like this when you actually fight. If you see something good, you probably won't be able to win it. You have to look at the face of old America no matter what. As soon as the US came, an anti-war coalition appeared all over the country, haha
_KY_ : Shouldn't have played ~
Israel also has to act like it, otherwise it will be difficult to explain to the people
AFCJAP : Israel has retaliated, now how would Iran respond? more aggressive move? will US or Russia step in? how is the prospect of commodities such as gold, metals, petroleum or even agricultural commodities be affected? but for sure, stock market will tank and tonight will be red in NYSE.
ZAzhimCJahanamGMayaN : LINAR KOYAK ISRAEL ZVAVAVK BAH YAHWEH RATA