Iron Ore and A-share Market Weekly Report and Global Capital Market Weekly Report 20240129
Overall
• The supply and demand side of ore continued to decline in the supply and demand side of the pre-holiday season and the improvement in iron and water production. However, it is expected that demand for replenishment of steel mills will gradually come to an end, and the upward support for ore will weaken. At the same time, the recent rise in mineral prices also depends on renewed efforts on the policy side, but as the Spring Festival approaches, the probability that further policies will be introduced has declined. There is a possibility that ore prices will rise and fall, but the overall trend continues to fluctuate at a high level. $SSIF DCE Iron Ore Futures Index ETF (03047.HK)$
On the supply side
• Global shipments were 26.29 million tons, a year-on-month decrease of 650,000 tons, of which Australia shipped 1.588 million tons, a decrease of 650,000 tons, Brazil shipped 6.442 million tons, 690,000 fewer tons, and non-mainstream shipments were 4.761 million tons, an increase of 690,000 tons over the previous month.
• In addition to the slow recovery of FMG shipments, shipments from other mines remained normal or high during the same period. Among them, shipments from non-mainstream mines remained high, and in the later stages, FMG shipments continued to resume. The impact of the weather in Australia and Pakistan will be weak in the next week. Global ore shipments are expected to pick up. Domestic arrival levels are expected to remain high and fall back to Hong Kong based on the decline in Australian shipments in the previous period.
Demand side
• The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 76.82%, up 0.59% from last week, up 0.13% from last year; blast furnace iron production capacity utilization rate was 83.5%, up 0.52% from month to month, down 0.65% year on year; steel mill profit ratio was 26.41%, flat month on month, down 6.06% year on year; average daily iron and water production was 2.23,800 tons, up 13,800 tons year on month, down 32,800 tons year on year.
• The increase in iron and water this week is in line with expectations. It is mainly reflected in the increase brought about by the resumption of production by steel companies in central China and southern China. Overall production will not resume much in the next week. It is expected that iron and water production will increase slightly. However, after entering February, there will be another wave of concentrated resumption of production by steel companies. It is expected that there will be a significant increase in iron and water.
In terms of inventory
• The total stocks of iron ore imported from steel mills across the country were 105.2359 million tons, an increase of 2.7971 million tons; the current daily consumption of imported ore in the sample steel mills is 2,727,500 tons, an increase of 19,400 tons over the previous month, and inventory consumption ratio was 38.58, an increase of 0.75 days over the previous month.
This week's A-share weekly report:
February is the month with the highest TMT win rate. As the annual report pre-disclosure season at the end of January comes to an end, the market will usher in a performance vacuum of about 2 months. At the same time, February is also the stage with the highest TMT win rate in history. At that time, TMT is expected to outperform the market again.
TMT still has a booming advantage. In the first quarter, which is an important stage to look forward to profit growth in the new year, the TMT sector, especially the TMT sector, which has an advantage in profit growth rate and marginal changes this year, is worth focusing on.
Overseas AI giants have reached new highs, which is expected to map the A-share AI industry chain. Subsequent global industrial chain catalytic events will continue to emerge, which will continue to drive the TMT sector.
TMT congestion is already low. From the perspective of trading congestion, the current level of congestion in the TMT sector is also low, and it is expected to be more flexible in the future during the market recovery phase.
TMT may set sail again in February, with the “five golden flowers” on the left: optical modules, consumer electronics, games, optical components, and semiconductors.
The “Chinese letter” is an extension in the direction of low dividends. In the future, we can focus on current cement, insurance, operators, construction, and steel, etc. where transactions are not crowded and valuations are still low. $East Money Information (300059.SZ)$
Global Capital Markets Weekly Report:
A strong Q4 2023 GDP report lays the foundation for an impressive 3.1% (fourth/fourth quarter) growth in US GDP. Analysts have updated our 2024 forecast to reflect recent growth momentum and changes in financial conditions, as well as our latest views on consumer spending, business investment, housing, and inventory cycles. We adjusted our GDP growth tracking forecast for the first quarter of 2024 to 2.8%, partially reflecting the upward trajectory of consumer spending in the fourth quarter of 2023, and raised the 4th/fourth quarter 2024 GDP growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 2.4%, far higher than the 1.0% forecast for the fourth quarter of 2023. $Apple (AAPL.US)$
• The supply and demand side of ore continued to decline in the supply and demand side of the pre-holiday season and the improvement in iron and water production. However, it is expected that demand for replenishment of steel mills will gradually come to an end, and the upward support for ore will weaken. At the same time, the recent rise in mineral prices also depends on renewed efforts on the policy side, but as the Spring Festival approaches, the probability that further policies will be introduced has declined. There is a possibility that ore prices will rise and fall, but the overall trend continues to fluctuate at a high level. $SSIF DCE Iron Ore Futures Index ETF (03047.HK)$
On the supply side
• Global shipments were 26.29 million tons, a year-on-month decrease of 650,000 tons, of which Australia shipped 1.588 million tons, a decrease of 650,000 tons, Brazil shipped 6.442 million tons, 690,000 fewer tons, and non-mainstream shipments were 4.761 million tons, an increase of 690,000 tons over the previous month.
• In addition to the slow recovery of FMG shipments, shipments from other mines remained normal or high during the same period. Among them, shipments from non-mainstream mines remained high, and in the later stages, FMG shipments continued to resume. The impact of the weather in Australia and Pakistan will be weak in the next week. Global ore shipments are expected to pick up. Domestic arrival levels are expected to remain high and fall back to Hong Kong based on the decline in Australian shipments in the previous period.
Demand side
• The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 76.82%, up 0.59% from last week, up 0.13% from last year; blast furnace iron production capacity utilization rate was 83.5%, up 0.52% from month to month, down 0.65% year on year; steel mill profit ratio was 26.41%, flat month on month, down 6.06% year on year; average daily iron and water production was 2.23,800 tons, up 13,800 tons year on month, down 32,800 tons year on year.
• The increase in iron and water this week is in line with expectations. It is mainly reflected in the increase brought about by the resumption of production by steel companies in central China and southern China. Overall production will not resume much in the next week. It is expected that iron and water production will increase slightly. However, after entering February, there will be another wave of concentrated resumption of production by steel companies. It is expected that there will be a significant increase in iron and water.
In terms of inventory
• The total stocks of iron ore imported from steel mills across the country were 105.2359 million tons, an increase of 2.7971 million tons; the current daily consumption of imported ore in the sample steel mills is 2,727,500 tons, an increase of 19,400 tons over the previous month, and inventory consumption ratio was 38.58, an increase of 0.75 days over the previous month.
This week's A-share weekly report:
February is the month with the highest TMT win rate. As the annual report pre-disclosure season at the end of January comes to an end, the market will usher in a performance vacuum of about 2 months. At the same time, February is also the stage with the highest TMT win rate in history. At that time, TMT is expected to outperform the market again.
TMT still has a booming advantage. In the first quarter, which is an important stage to look forward to profit growth in the new year, the TMT sector, especially the TMT sector, which has an advantage in profit growth rate and marginal changes this year, is worth focusing on.
Overseas AI giants have reached new highs, which is expected to map the A-share AI industry chain. Subsequent global industrial chain catalytic events will continue to emerge, which will continue to drive the TMT sector.
TMT congestion is already low. From the perspective of trading congestion, the current level of congestion in the TMT sector is also low, and it is expected to be more flexible in the future during the market recovery phase.
TMT may set sail again in February, with the “five golden flowers” on the left: optical modules, consumer electronics, games, optical components, and semiconductors.
The “Chinese letter” is an extension in the direction of low dividends. In the future, we can focus on current cement, insurance, operators, construction, and steel, etc. where transactions are not crowded and valuations are still low. $East Money Information (300059.SZ)$
Global Capital Markets Weekly Report:
A strong Q4 2023 GDP report lays the foundation for an impressive 3.1% (fourth/fourth quarter) growth in US GDP. Analysts have updated our 2024 forecast to reflect recent growth momentum and changes in financial conditions, as well as our latest views on consumer spending, business investment, housing, and inventory cycles. We adjusted our GDP growth tracking forecast for the first quarter of 2024 to 2.8%, partially reflecting the upward trajectory of consumer spending in the fourth quarter of 2023, and raised the 4th/fourth quarter 2024 GDP growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 2.4%, far higher than the 1.0% forecast for the fourth quarter of 2023. $Apple (AAPL.US)$
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
3047 is a team specializing in the research of commodities and smart beta. We like to exchange investment strategies.
61Followers
2Following
190Visitors
Follow