Iron Ore and A-share Market Weekly Report and Global Capital Market Weekly Report 20240311
Overall
• Ore prices have been running below $120 for two consecutive weeks, but this price drop has not been exchanged for continuous improvement in domestic steel companies' profits and failure to force global non-mainstream mines to cut production. It can be seen that the price drop did not change their weak fundamentals. Therefore, it is expected that mineral prices will decline further in the later stages to seek a new balance between supply and demand. $SSIF DCE Iron Ore Futures Index ETF (03047.HK)$
On the supply side
• Total global shipments were 31.256 million tons, with a weekly increase of 5.219 million tons; Australian shipments increased by 4.26 million tons on a weekly basis; total inbound volume from 45 ports was 23.77 million tons, an increase of 3.46 million tons over the previous week.
• The weather disturbances ended, and Australian shipments rebounded significantly, causing global ore shipments to rise back to a high level during the year. Meanwhile, shipments from Brazil and non-Australian and Brazilian mines increased, especially on the non-mainstream side. The recent correction in mineral prices did not trigger production cuts in non-mainstream mines. Looking back, Western Australia ports are expected to be disrupted by hurricanes in mid-March, while non-mainstream mines continue to pay attention to falling mineral prices and supply disruptions. Further increases in global shipping levels are expected to be limited, and it is likely that they will maintain the current high level.
Demand side
• The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 75.6%, up 0.41% from last week, down 6.4% year on year; blast furnace iron production capacity utilization rate was 83.11%, down 0.23% from month to month, down 4.92% year on year; steel mill profit ratio was 24.24%, down 3.03% month on month, down 25.11% year on year; average daily iron and water production was 2.22,500 tons, down 0.61 million tons year on month, down 142,200 tons year on year.
• After the holiday season, iron and water production declined for three consecutive weeks. At the same time, some steel companies in Northeast China, and Southwest China all increased their maintenance efforts. After a slight improvement in the profit and loss situation of steel companies last week, they once again hit a new low during the year. They also dominated the slow pace of resumption of production by steel companies in March and limited increase in iron and water production, curbing iron ore demand.
In terms of inventory
• Imported iron ore stocks in 45 ports across the country were 141.554 million tons, an increase of 2.578,600 tons over the previous month.
This week's A-share weekly report:
1. The popularity of market transactions has declined again, and the popularity of transactions in sectors such as computers, media, communications, machinery, consumer services, and automobiles is at a relatively high level; the volatility of TMT, machinery, pharmaceuticals, light industry, chemicals, automobiles, real estate and other sectors is above the 90% quantile.
2. The northbound configuration disk continues to return. The North China Investment Fund and ETFs slowed down after a brief marked return in the middle of last week.
3. After two consecutive weeks of undifferentiated recovery in the industry, the two financial markets began to diverge, and the northbound trading market clearly flowed out after frequent “back-and-forth”. $CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$
Global Capital Markets Weekly Report:
Market turbulence and risk aversion
• Markets were volatile at the beginning of the week, and investors turned to risk aversion
• Investors follow Jerome Powell's congressional speech to seek monetary policy clues
Federal Reserve policy trends
• Powell's remarks allayed market concerns about aggressive positions
• Powell hinted on Thursday that the Federal Reserve is close to the confidence threshold for interest rate cuts
• Highlight the risk of delaying interest rate cuts and confirm that interest rates may be cut within this year
Economic data and market reaction
• Friday's unemployment data showed increased employment and lower hourly wages, supporting interest rate cuts
• Bond prices have risen, and traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at the June meeting
Investor sentiment and stock market performance
• Broadcom's earnings announcement was poor, and the semiconductor solutions division's revenue fell short of expectations
• Bank of America reports record capital outflows from technology equity funds in early March
• Artificial intelligence and semiconductor stocks fell on Friday, investors fatigued, and profits settled
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
• Ore prices have been running below $120 for two consecutive weeks, but this price drop has not been exchanged for continuous improvement in domestic steel companies' profits and failure to force global non-mainstream mines to cut production. It can be seen that the price drop did not change their weak fundamentals. Therefore, it is expected that mineral prices will decline further in the later stages to seek a new balance between supply and demand. $SSIF DCE Iron Ore Futures Index ETF (03047.HK)$
On the supply side
• Total global shipments were 31.256 million tons, with a weekly increase of 5.219 million tons; Australian shipments increased by 4.26 million tons on a weekly basis; total inbound volume from 45 ports was 23.77 million tons, an increase of 3.46 million tons over the previous week.
• The weather disturbances ended, and Australian shipments rebounded significantly, causing global ore shipments to rise back to a high level during the year. Meanwhile, shipments from Brazil and non-Australian and Brazilian mines increased, especially on the non-mainstream side. The recent correction in mineral prices did not trigger production cuts in non-mainstream mines. Looking back, Western Australia ports are expected to be disrupted by hurricanes in mid-March, while non-mainstream mines continue to pay attention to falling mineral prices and supply disruptions. Further increases in global shipping levels are expected to be limited, and it is likely that they will maintain the current high level.
Demand side
• The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 75.6%, up 0.41% from last week, down 6.4% year on year; blast furnace iron production capacity utilization rate was 83.11%, down 0.23% from month to month, down 4.92% year on year; steel mill profit ratio was 24.24%, down 3.03% month on month, down 25.11% year on year; average daily iron and water production was 2.22,500 tons, down 0.61 million tons year on month, down 142,200 tons year on year.
• After the holiday season, iron and water production declined for three consecutive weeks. At the same time, some steel companies in Northeast China, and Southwest China all increased their maintenance efforts. After a slight improvement in the profit and loss situation of steel companies last week, they once again hit a new low during the year. They also dominated the slow pace of resumption of production by steel companies in March and limited increase in iron and water production, curbing iron ore demand.
In terms of inventory
• Imported iron ore stocks in 45 ports across the country were 141.554 million tons, an increase of 2.578,600 tons over the previous month.
This week's A-share weekly report:
1. The popularity of market transactions has declined again, and the popularity of transactions in sectors such as computers, media, communications, machinery, consumer services, and automobiles is at a relatively high level; the volatility of TMT, machinery, pharmaceuticals, light industry, chemicals, automobiles, real estate and other sectors is above the 90% quantile.
2. The northbound configuration disk continues to return. The North China Investment Fund and ETFs slowed down after a brief marked return in the middle of last week.
3. After two consecutive weeks of undifferentiated recovery in the industry, the two financial markets began to diverge, and the northbound trading market clearly flowed out after frequent “back-and-forth”. $CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$
Global Capital Markets Weekly Report:
Market turbulence and risk aversion
• Markets were volatile at the beginning of the week, and investors turned to risk aversion
• Investors follow Jerome Powell's congressional speech to seek monetary policy clues
Federal Reserve policy trends
• Powell's remarks allayed market concerns about aggressive positions
• Powell hinted on Thursday that the Federal Reserve is close to the confidence threshold for interest rate cuts
• Highlight the risk of delaying interest rate cuts and confirm that interest rates may be cut within this year
Economic data and market reaction
• Friday's unemployment data showed increased employment and lower hourly wages, supporting interest rate cuts
• Bond prices have risen, and traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at the June meeting
Investor sentiment and stock market performance
• Broadcom's earnings announcement was poor, and the semiconductor solutions division's revenue fell short of expectations
• Bank of America reports record capital outflows from technology equity funds in early March
• Artificial intelligence and semiconductor stocks fell on Friday, investors fatigued, and profits settled
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
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