3047HK Iron Ore ETF wrote a post · Apr 16, 2024 14:28

Iron ore and A-share market weekly report and global capital market weekly report 20240415

Overall, looking at it.
Under the dual impact of the gradual resumption of domestic steel enterprises and the disruption of overseas supply, iron ore prices have shown a smooth bottom rebound trend. Looking ahead, the expectation for the resumption of work by steel companies remains strong. Although the shipping disturbances in Australia have temporarily subsided, the rainfall situation in the northern ports of Brazil should not be ignored, and it is expected that the supporting factors for the rebound in iron ore prices will still exist. However, the problem of high iron ore inventories is also becoming increasingly prominent and difficult to resolve effectively. $SSIF DCE Iron Ore Futures Index ETF (03047.HK)$
On the supply side
The global total shipment volume is 32.458 million tons, a weekly decrease of 1.425 million tons. The total volume of 45 harbors to harbor is 25.819 million tons, an increase of 0.206 million tons compared to the previous week.
The impact of hurricanes has subsided, and considering Rio Tinto and FMG's plans to increase shipping levels in the second quarter to achieve annual targets, we expect the future shipping volume in Australia to rebound significantly. However, for Brazil, potential disruptions from rainfall still persist in shipping ports in the northern region in mid-to-late April. At the same time, the shipping of non-mainstream mines in South Africa, India, and other countries is significantly suppressed, so it is expected that the shipping volume of these non-mainstream mines will be difficult to return to high levels.
On the demand side
247 steel mills had a blast furnace operating rate of 78.41%, a decrease of 0.6% compared to the previous week and a decrease of 6.33% compared to the same period last year. The blast furnace iron production capacity utilization rate was 84.05%, an increase of 0.44% compared to the previous week and a decrease of 7.75% compared to the same period last year. The steel mill profit rate was 38.1%, an increase of 4.77% compared to the previous week and a decrease of 9.52% compared to the same period last year. The daily pig iron production was 2.2475 million tons, an increase of 0.0117 million tons compared to the previous week and a decrease of 0.2195 million tons compared to the same period last year.
The increase in pig iron production this week did not meet expectations. However, the profitability of steel companies continues to rise rapidly, which further enhances the enthusiasm for resuming production. According to the production resumption plans of steel companies, resumption activities will still be relatively concentrated in mid-to-late April.
On the inventory side.
- The iron ore inventory at 45 ports across the country is 144.8738 million tons, an increase of 0.3511 million tons compared to the previous period; the total inventory of iron ore at 47 ports is 150.9738 million tons, an increase of 0.8011 million tons compared to the previous period.

A-share weekly report for this week:

The focus of the "New State Nine Measures" lies in emphasizing dividends and strengthening delisting. It is expected to reshape the A-share ecosystem, solidify the foundation for index bull markets, and improve the effectiveness of quality and dividend factors, which is favorable for state-owned enterprises with strong performance release and dividend capabilities.

The short-term demand rebound strengthens the trading of second-stage inflation, bringing about a volatile market for resources. Our pricing model shows that copper prices are showing signs of a slight over-rise this week (but pricing has not yet become frothy), while the deviation of international gold prices from fair value is more significant.

Performance decision period, grasp the first quarterly report and the direction of good economy - first-tier industries with both high expectations for first quarter performance and improvement in economic environment: communications, automobiles, machinery, cosmetics, and military industry; second-tier industries: sports, construction machinery, commercial vehicles, biological products, cosmetics, gas, auto parts, communications equipment, and home appliances.

The molecular end is expected to face a "decision", before the numerator and denominator form upward momentum, there is no need to rush on strategies, and it is important to remain patient and wait for opportunities. At the tactical level, it is recommended to focus on the balance of trading structure and the return of performance pricing, and to identify low crowding, high cost-effective assets with improved profit expectations, which will become the winning factor in the next stage.

Industry allocation recommendations: (1) Manufacturing industry going global + advantageous performance expectations + improved economic expectations: construction machinery, commercial vehicles, communications equipment; (2) Independent economic cycles: hog farming, oil transportation/shipping; (3) In the medium term, stable dividend assets are still the optimal choice for bottom allocation. $Value Gold ETF (03081.HK)$

Global capital market weekly report:

Retail sales exceeded expectations, with retail sales in January and February revised upwards. This raises our tracking of actual consumption for the first quarter from 2.5% to 3.0% and GDP from 2.4% to 2.7%.

Although retail sales have performed strongly, it is unclear if the growth has a broad base, as non-store retailers consolidate all online spending categories. 75% of the controlled retail sales growth this month comes from e-commerce. $Amazon (AMZN.US)$