3047HK Iron Ore ETF wrote a post · Apr 22 22:16

Iron Ore and A-share Market Weekly Report and Global Capital Market Weekly Report 20240422

Overall
• In addition to the gradual resumption of production by steel companies and fluctuations in overseas supply, the policy level once again released positive expectations for terminal demand in the industry this week. Together, these favorable factors contributed to the further rise in ore prices. Looking forward to the future, as supply-side disturbances gradually stabilize, the logic of resuming production brought about by steel companies' profit recovery is still the main driving force behind the rise in ore prices.
On the supply side
• Total global shipments were 23.92 million tons, a weekly decrease of 8.54 million tons, and a total of 25.28 million tons arrived at 45 ports, an increase of 920,000 tons over the previous week.
• The impact of the Australian hurricane has temporarily subsided, and global ore shipments have gradually picked up due to the recovery of Australian shipments. Currently, with the exception of FMG, all four major mines have announced financial reports for the first quarter. Notably, the remaining three mines did not adjust their shipping targets for the fiscal year, so we expect these three mines to maintain their previous shipping plans, thereby driving up the overall shipment volume in Australia. However, on the Brazilian side, shipments are expected to be limited due to Vale's control over the shipping pace and the northern port continues to be plagued by rainfall.
Demand side
• The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 78.86%, up 0.45 percentage points from last week, down 5.73 percentage points from last year; blast furnace iron production capacity utilization rate was 84.59%, up 0.54 percentage points from month to month, down 6.91 percentage points year on year; steel mill profit margin was 48.48, up 10.38 percentage points month on month, up 6.06 percentage points year on year; average daily iron and water production was 2.262,200 tons, up 14,700 tons month on month, down 196,600 tons year on year.
• Steel companies' profit levels have recently been further restored, not only exceeding the same period last year, but this positive trend continues to drive the current and next two to four weeks to resume production.
In terms of inventory
• Imported iron ore stocks in 45 ports across the country were 146.57 million tons, an increase of 1.69 million tons; the total imported iron ore inventory of 47 ports was 152.23 million tons, an increase of 1.26 million tons over the previous month. $SSIF DCE Iron Ore Futures Index ETF (03047.HK)$

This week's A-share weekly report:

At the level of market performance, undervaluation and dividend indices continued to be strong, with household appliances/banks/coal showing the highest gains. At the profit level, Wind's profit forecast for beauty care in April was raised in line with 24. At the economic level, the real estate investment and financing side was still weak in March. Second-hand housing transactions in 14 cities in the past two weeks were close to the same period last year; the automobile trade-in action plan continued to advance, and exports continued to increase rapidly; data from the Bureau of Statistics showed that in March, the short-term supply of pigs was still sufficient. At the level of valuation and transaction popularity, the popularity of dividend assets is clearly rising. $Midea Group Co., Ltd (000333.SZ)$

Global Capital Markets Weekly Report:

We forecast total S&P 500 cash spending to grow 9% to $3.7 trillion in 2024, with cash mergers and acquisitions (+15%) and buybacks (+13%) dominated. The rise in CEO confidence indicates that companies will be more willing to deploy capital than last year. M&A activity will increase, but high valuations and soaring interest rates mean companies will prioritize stocks; the cash portion of deals announced in the first quarter has dropped to just 42% (58% in 2023). Driven by investment in artificial intelligence, only 10 companies will account for 29% of total capital expenditure by 2023. When economic growth accelerates, investors usually reward investing in growing stocks. $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$