3047HK Iron Ore ETF wrote a post · Apr 23, 2024 11:16

Iron ore and A-share market weekly report and global financial market weekly report 20240422

Overall, looking at it.
In addition to the gradual production resumption of steel enterprises and fluctuations in overseas supply, this week, positive expectations for industry end demand were once again released at the policy level, driving further rise in ore prices. Looking ahead, as supply disruptions gradually stabilize, the logic of production resumption brought about by the repair of steel enterprise profits remains the main driving force for the upward trend in ore prices.
On the supply side
Global shipping total volume is 23.92 million tons, a weekly decrease of 8.54 million tons, with 45 ports receiving a total of 25.28 million tons, an increase of 0.92 million tons compared to the previous week.
The impact of the Australian cyclone has temporarily subsided, and global ore shipping is gradually recovering due to the resumption of Australian shipments. Currently, apart from FMG, the four major mines have all released financial reports for the first quarter. It is worth noting that the remaining three mines have not adjusted their annual shipping targets, so we expect these three major mines to maintain their previous shipping plans, thereby driving the overall shipping volume in Australia to rise. However, in Brazil, due to Vale's control over the shipping pace and continuous rain disturbances in the northern ports, it is expected that its shipments will be somewhat limited.
On the demand side
The blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel mills was 78.86%, a increase of 0.45 percentage points compared to the previous week and a decrease of 5.73 percentage points compared to the same period last year; the ironmaking capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces was 84.59%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points compared to the previous week and a decrease of 6.91 percentage points compared to the same period last year; the profit rate of steel mills was 48.48, an increase of 10.38 percentage points compared to the previous week and an increase of 6.06 percentage points compared to the same period last year; the daily average output of molten iron was 2.2622 million tons, an increase of 0.0147 million tons compared to the previous week and a decrease of 0.1966 million tons compared to the same period last year.
The profitability of steel companies has been further restored recently, not only surpassing the level of the same period last year, but also continuously driving the production recovery pace in the current and the next two to four weeks.
On the inventory side.
- The import iron ore inventory of 45 ports nationwide was 146.57 million tons, an increase of 1.69 million tons compared to the previous month; the total iron ore inventory of 47 ports was 152.23 million tons, an increase of 1.26 million tons compared to the previous month. $SSIF DCE Iron Ore Futures Index ETF (03047.HK)$

A-share weekly report for this week:

In terms of market performance, low valuation and dividend index continue to be strong, with household appliances/banks/coal leading the gains. In terms of profitability, April beauty care 24-year Wind profit expectations have been raised. In terms of economic conditions, real estate financing and investment remained weak in March, and second-hand housing transactions in 14 cities in the past two weeks were close to the same period last year; the old-for-new automobile initiative continued to promote, and exports continued to grow; statistics from the Statistics Bureau showed that the inventory turnover of breeding sows accelerated in March, and short-term pig supply remained sufficient. In terms of valuation and trading activity, the heat of dividend-bearing assets has clearly increased. $Midea Group Co., Ltd (000333.SZ)$

Global capital market weekly report:

We predict that total cash spending for the S&P 500 index in 2024 will increase by 9%, reaching 3.7 trillion US dollars, with cash mergers and acquisitions (+15%) and buybacks (+13%) as the main focus. The rise in CEO confidence indicates that companies will be more willing to deploy capital compared to last year. M&A activity will increase, but high valuations and soaring interest rates mean that companies will prioritize stocks; in the trades announced in the first quarter, the cash portion has decreased to only 42% (down from 58% in 2023). Driven by AI investments, by 2023, only 10 companies account for 29% of the total capital spending. When economic growth accelerates, investors typically reward investment in growth stocks. $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$