Is 0.06 million or less an opportunity to buy? Looking back on Bitcoin's half-life results

Since the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June was announced yesterday, the probability of betting on September interest rate cuts has risen to close to 100% in the market. The Bitcoin price initially soared to close to 60,000 dollars, then fell, and is currently trading around 57,000 dollars.

Since bitcoins were cut in half on 4/20, bitcoins have fluctuated. Meanwhile, if you look at the 1-year trend after the past 3 Bitcoin half-lives, Bitcoin tends to rise significantly after the half-life period and fluctuates for about 4 months. If this trend continues, there is a possibility that Bitcoin will turn upward towards the end of summer.

Reasons for the decline
As a reason for this decline, some Bitcoin miners sold part of their token inventory to reinforce their finances since Bitcoin network mining incentives were cut in half in April, and there is a view that selling pressure is also being applied to the crypto market.

Furthermore, Richard Galvin, co-founder of the cryptocurrency hedge fund Digital Asset Capital Management, stated that one of the major reasons why Bitcoin is sluggish in the short term is Mt. Gox. According to multiple announcements on the MtGox exchange, the return of bitcoins (and Bitcoin Cash) will begin in July. This means that 0.14 million bitcoins, which had been “sealed” for 10 years, will be put back into circulation, raising concerns that this may lead to large-scale sales of tokens and put pressure on the market.

An opportunity to buy?
According to the CryptoQuant report, Bitcoin is at a critical crossroads, and several on-chain metrics indicate the possibility of a further decline. Despite “whales” buying at the fastest pace in over a year, BTC has been on a downward trend since its all-time high in March, and reached a two-month low of $53,500 on July 5.

The profit and loss index and the bull bear market cycle index suggest the possibility of a drastic adjustment similar to summer 2021. Institutional investors are pouring large sums of money into spot Bitcoin ETFs, but it is said that BTC must overcome the $59,000 resistance level to avoid further declines.

Also, CryptoQuant analysts said that the current Bitcoin Miner Surrender index is close to the bottom of the market after the FTX crash, and there is a possibility that it will indicate the bottom of the market. Specifically, the Bitcoin Miner Surrender index is close to the level of the bottom price after the FTX crash in 2022, and there is a possibility that it will indicate the bottom price of the Bitcoin market.

CCData's research report also concluded that Bitcoin has not yet reached the peak of its current upward cycle, and there is a possibility that it will surpass its all-time high by the end of this year. According to the report, “until the peak of the cycle is born, each halving cycle will be longer than the previous cycle due to the maturity of the asset class and the decline in volatility.”

Furthermore, in addition to plans to launch an Ether ETF in the US, similar ones are being sold around the world, and the same report states that “more capital, liquidity, and demand will be brought to this asset class.”