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-- 79.040 Will 2025 be a surge? Or a crash? The Year of the Snake calls for vigilance against 'heavyweight' events! Check the anomalies of the past five occasions.
2025 is the year of the Snake. As a reference to predict the future of stock prices, we have summarized the movements of the Nikkei average stock prices in the past five Snake years. What becomes visible from there is,Both rising and falling, the movements have a wide range.This significantly influences the movement of stock prices.Many "Heavy" class events also occur.is in effect.
In 2025, politically, Mr. Trump will make a comeback as the US president, and domestically, the government will continue to be operated by a minority ruling party. In the domestic industry, particularly in the key industry of automobile manufacturing, $Honda Motor (7267.JP)$and $Nissan Motor (7201.JP)$Merger negotiations are underway, and the retail giant $Seven & i Holdings (3382.JP)$is facing a series of uncertainties, such as receiving acquisition proposals from counterparts in Canada, prompting structural reforms. Before entering the stock market in the new year, it may be good to prepare mentally by referring to the anomaly of the Snake Year.
In 2025, politically, Mr. Trump will make a comeback as the US president, and domestically, the government will continue to be operated by a minority ruling party. In the domestic industry, particularly in the key industry of automobile manufacturing, $Honda Motor (7267.JP)$and $Nissan Motor (7201.JP)$Merger negotiations are underway, and the retail giant $Seven & i Holdings (3382.JP)$is facing a series of uncertainties, such as receiving acquisition proposals from counterparts in Canada, prompting structural reforms. Before entering the stock market in the new year, it may be good to prepare mentally by referring to the anomaly of the Snake Year.
In the past 5 Snake Years,the average stock price movement was 3 wins and 2 losses.So,The simple average of the rise and fall rate is a 15.25% increase.From 1960 to 2023, the simple average of the rise and fall rate is 8.38%, so when looking at the average value, "compared to usual...However, the situation is not that simple.Out of 5 instances, only 1 year falls within a 15% range compared to the previous year, whether it was an increase or decrease.
However, the situation is not that simple.Out of 5 instances, only 1 year falls within a 15% range compared to the previous year, whether it was an increase or decrease.The previous heavy year, 2013, saw a significant 56.75% increase, marking the second-largest increase since 1960. In the past 3 heavy years, the range of rise and fall has all exceeded 20%.「ヘビ年は株価の値動きが大きい」というアノマリーがあるようだ。
過去5回のヘビ年の出来事を振り返ると、株価を動かすさまざまなビッグ・イベントが発生していたことが分かる。However, the situation is not that simple.Out of 5 instances, only 1 year falls within a 15% range compared to the previous year, whether it was an increase or decrease.The previous heavy year, 2013, saw a significant 56.75% increase, marking the second-largest increase since 1960. In the past 3 heavy years, the range of rise and fall has all exceeded 20%.「ヘビ年は株価の値動きが大きい」というアノマリーがあるようだ。
【過去5回のヘビ年の主な出来事をチェック！】
前年の年末に第2次安倍内閣が発足し、「アベノミクス」が本格的に始まった。3月に就任した黒田東彦・日銀総裁による「Unconventional easingWith the "active fiscal stimulus", the Japanese economy surged, and the Nikkei Stock Average rose by 56.72%. This growth rate is the second highest since 1960, following the 91.91% surge in 1972 during the "Remodeling Archipelago Boom" in the final year of high economic growth.The second highest since 1960updating their record highs since listing earlier this year, with some stocks soaring by more than 1.6 times in stock price over the last 3 months.
In the USAContinuing the collapse of the Internet bubbleIn SeptemberSimultaneous terrorist attacksoccurred, and the Nikkei Stock Average fell below 0.01 million yen for the first time since 1984.In December, the Enron scandal unfolded, leading to the bankruptcy of the major US energy company Enron, known as the Enron scandal.In this year, the Nikkei Stock Average experienced a decline of 23.52%, the fifth largest decline since 1960.The Nikkei Stock Average has only dropped by over 20% six times.Since 1960, this is the fifth largest decline.There have been only six instances where the Nikkei Stock Average fell by 20% or more.
The era changed from Showa to Heisei.Peak of the bubble economy.year. The Nikkei average stock price rose by nearly 30%, and the closing price of 0.03 million 8915.87 yen at the year-end was the highest in the past 34 years until it was broken in 2024.This was still the highest in the past 34 years, until it was broken in 2024.Berlin Wall's collapse.The Berlin Wall collapse.やThe declaration of the end of the Cold War between the USA and the Soviet Union at the Malta Summit.It became a historic turning point on a global scale. By the way, in this year, in April,the consumption tax (3%) was introduced for the first time.in 1977:
It would probably be 1977 which had the fewest events in the past 5 heavy years. Between the two oil crises of 1973 and 1978, there was a global economic recovery, but Europe was also experiencing a sense of stagnation. This was due to the 'concentrated heavy rainfall export' by manufacturers.concentrated heavy rainfall exportassociated withTrade surplusbecame significant, and Japan and former West Germanyfaced criticism over trade imbalancesIn this year, the dollar-yen exchange rate shifted from the upper 290 yen range to the upper 240 yen range, leading to a rapid strengthening of the yen.The yen appreciated sharply.Although the Nikkei Stock Average experienced a minimal movement with a decline of -2.51%,from 1975 to 1989, over a span of 15 years, this was the only year where it recorded a negative change, which can be considered unique.in terms of its performance.
Due to the aftermath of the previous year's Tokyo Olympics and a decline in demand.The Showa 40 Recession (Securities Recession).The year when the government and the Bank of Japan's economic measures that continue to this day were established, such as rescuing the struggling former Yamaichi Securities with Bank of Japan's special funding and deciding on the first-ever issuance of deficit national bonds for a limited period of one year.Bank of Japan's special fundingrelief, leading to the first-ever issuance of deficit national bonds for a limited period of one yearFirst-ever issuance of deficit national bonds"16％超の大幅上昇を達成。後に「The Izanagi economic boom became the year when the prosperous era called " Izanagi Economic Boom " began.
moomoo News Mark
Source/Reference: Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Cabinet Office / Bank of Japan HP, NHK, Jiji Press, ETC.
Source/Reference: Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Cabinet Office / Bank of Japan HP, NHK, Jiji Press, ETC.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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184295026 : At the beginning of this year, on the start date of trading at securities companies (including telephone reception, internet, and apps) at the beginning of the year, a huge amount of investment funds received by the new Nisa along with applications by the end of 2023 all moved at once, and that swiftly flowed into the markets of Japan and the USA like a flood. As a result, a powerful market rise continued throughout January, which was incomparable to the beginning of 2022. However, the next beginning of the year will not see a mass movement of new Nisa funds into the market like this year. It's not like everyone will collectively make a lump sum purchase of 2.4 million yen in the growth investment framework of new Nisa on the first trading day of the Japanese market in the new year. So it's not going to happen!!! Indeed. Therefore, there won't be a huge amount of buying frenzy in the Japanese market at the beginning of the year in 2025. And within the first two weeks of the beginning of the year, while the Japanese market is going about its business, the new Trump administration will commence on January 20th. It's already known that Trump will sign 25 presidential decrees on the first day and put them into effect immediately. Beyond that, the clear movements of the world are no longer predictable. Hence, there is no way to understand the psychology of everyone participating in the "soaring, don't be left behind, fear buying" leading up to the end of the year in the Japanese market today on the 27th (Friday) and yesterday. Once January 30th (Monday) passes, the Japanese market will be closed for 6 days, while markets around the world, including the USA, will continue to operate except on New Year's Day. Therefore, Japanese stocks won't be able to cope with market crashes due to unexpected risks, wars, or disasters. Furthermore, as the New Year's mood transitions to vigilance towards the start of the Trump administration on the 20th, market psychology will shift rapidly towards "no longer actively buying." There will still be some buying frenzy for a day, but the momentum won't be the same as it is now. The market surpassed 0.04 million on the 27th (Friday)!!! Many people are excitedly tweeting about it, but aren't they the ones participating in today's soaring and buying at high prices? They are captivated by the desire for extra gains from the market that keeps rising, adding more purchases. But since the market value has already exceeded 0.04 million, isn't that considered a "high entry"? It would be funny if the Japanese market crashes early in the new year, wouldn't it?
Since I fundamentally don't hold stocks but invest differently, I can only profit from the upside even if there's a crash, unlike those holding physical stocks, so I'm still at ease 
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