Is inflation making a comeback? What about stocks and bonds?
The trend of TLT over the past two days is very different from the beginning of November last year. I have already written the reason for this. The conclusion is that the probability of TLT has not bottomed out yet. If you want to participate, you can either copy the bottom in batches or wait for the right side to enter the venue like me. Buying TMF is not recommended.
After the bond market had finished falling, it was finally the stock market's turn. The big four indices are bloody and stormy, I feel like Viagra, which is rushing higher and falling $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ The increase was pretty good. Basically all other stocks are falling; at most, they are trading sideways. Viagra can't even pull up the half-fee index $iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX.US)$ 。
Energy led the decline $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE.US)$ I didn't see the signs right in the morning. I cut my positions slightly, but I still lost quite a bit. However, on the technical side, $Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$ as well $Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$ It can only be used as a pullback or a pullback; after all, it hasn't fallen. Instead, I bought a few more in the afternoon, but the stock didn't sell much in the morning. Overall, there are still quite a few positions on energy. If it actually falls below, you can only sell it. If that were the case, profits would basically have to be thrown back... Only big tech stocks are suitable for carrying and not selling; as long as they don't chase the highest point, then they will soon pay back.
Concerns about US inflation have resurfaced, and if China doesn't do well, it's time to help. The youth unemployment rate data is no longer being published; it must be because it looks so good. My conservative estimate is that it's probably around 3%, raising the US unemployment rate of 3.7%. If it were to be announced, the US would definitely say that China's data was falsified; write fewer zeros at the end![]()
Crude oil prices are starting to weaken. I don't know if it has anything to do with the series of data just released by China. But that doesn't matter.
Focus: Currently, it is still difficult to judge the trend of crude oil prices. However, if a return to the decline is confirmed, then it is time to prepare to hit the bottom of technology stocks. Conversely, if it continues to rise, bonds and technology stocks will have to continue to fall.
As interest rates on 10-year US Treasury bonds rise, interest spreads on 10-year treasury bonds between China and the US widened, and RMB depreciated. $USD/CNH (USDCNH.FX)$ It has broken through 7.3 with no resistance, and is stronger than Nvidia. When deflation and currency depreciation go hand in hand, it's really difficult to solve. Regardless, I don't currently hold any shares in China Securities. I can only mentally hope that the motherland will hold on. Not shorting China is considered my moral bottom line.
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ The more Viagra goes up, the more worried I am right now. Although production capacity is limited, if supply is in short supply, Viagra can increase profits by raising prices. But after all, the current stock price is already too high, and I'm still worried about whether the earnings report can match the stock price. But I'm afraid to gamble on financial reports.
$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ It's still the tech stock I hold the most. Currently trading sideways, this is already very good; at least it hasn't declined. Unless there's a big thunderstorm, I only sell calls, not stocks.
I have some $Intel (INTC.US)$ with $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares ETF (SOXS.US)$ . Intel, uh, is not in a hurry to sell because the technical side is still above the MA20. SOXS is used to hedge against falling risks, and positions are not large.
$VanEck Agribusiness ETF (MOO.US)$ Agriculture was out of place. I made a mistake in my judgment and stopped losing money in time. The volatility of this thing is very low, so the losses are not that big.
$The Health Care Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLV.US)$ It's relatively stable, keep holding it,
$RTX Corp (RTX.US)$ Still polishing the bottom. but $General Dynamics (GD.US)$ Today's move was so unsightly that I had to cut some of my positions.
My account is at a loss and I'm not in a good mood. Alas, let's keep working on moving the bricks.
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本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。此账号为本人唯一社媒平台。
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momoupup : Thanks for sharing!!!
Cherry Cat : Thanks for sharing! I believe many retail investors are experiencing account sluggishness![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
Ringo想买包 : It turns out that China is the only rescuer with a soft landing; a real win-win! (Just kidding
高贵的阿德莱德 OP Ringo想买包 : The American conspiracy actually succeeded. I also had a vote last year. Who gave the US the back? China had the lowest number of votes. If I were to vote one more time now, I think everyone would choose China
高贵的阿德莱德 OP Cherry Cat : As long as there are no losses from the beginning of the year to the present, otherwise it would be too miserable
Cherry Cat : OK! I hope the market will slowly pick up
股勇者 : The youth unemployment rate in the country is 3%? Just kidding!
高贵的阿德莱德 OP 股勇者 : I think so, and if it were to be published, the US would definitely say that China's data was falsified; write fewer zeros at the end