Is it a demand correction or a real trend reversal?

It is past 10 o'clock on the 13th, and it has suddenly dropped. Futures fell below 38,500.
Now, as for the Nikkei VI during this period, it has not risen while staying negative compared to the previous day.

Because it was high in the morning... but even after a rapid decline of over 300 yen, the VI hardly rises.
Therefore, I feel that it is only the excessive supply and demand in the short term that has been resolved, rather than a fundamental downward trend.

In fact, the arbitrage buying position has been rapidly resolved across the SQ.

As of March 1st, the outstanding amount of buying was over 2 trillion yen, and by March 6th, it should have exceeded 2.1 trillion yen.
Currently, an amount of 2 trillion yen or more and a share count of 0.75 billion shares or more are overheated points, and it was a situation that had clearly gone too far just before the SQ. Following that trend, 0.2 billion shares were resolved across the SQ.

Therefore, I think that the decline since the day before the SQ is mainly due to the resolution of excessive supply and demand. The Bank of Japan's elimination of negative interest rates in March played a role in inducing it.

Therefore, if the supply and demand improves this week and falls below 38000, and stops falling around 37000 yen, it would be good to consider buying.
On the other hand, if the negative interest rate in March is not lifted, there is a possibility of returning close to 40000 yen, considering the progress in supply and demand improvement.

I still don't think it has become a fundamentally bearish market. The semiconductor stocks haven't fallen much either.