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J_M_RIN commented on a stock · Sep 13 19:04

A sense of turmoil in the short term, is it a move by the Federal Reserve?

Article at 8:10 am on the 13th.
A sense of turmoil in the short term, is it a move by the Federal Reserve?
As far as the economic indicators are concerned, it seems that there is no economic downturn yet, but Nick's article came out during the blackout period when the FRB members cannot speak before the FOMC. Due to the impact of the article, 0.25 was largely factored in, but after the article...
A sense of turmoil in the short term, is it a move by the Federal Reserve?
0.25 was 55% and 0.5 was 45%, and there was a significant change in the discount rate. Knowing this, was yesterday's market reaction mostly risk-on? Do you find anything suspicious?
The rise in the 0.5 fold increase prompted concerns about economic recession, and I thought it wouldn't be surprising if the market moved to risk-off.
As a straightforward response, if the possibility of 0.5 increases, the price of gold is likely to rise, the dollar index is likely to decline, and bonds are likely to be bought. It can be determined.
Despite the article that could cause concerns about an economic downturn to resurface, small-cap Russell rose significantly, and other sectors also saw a mostly overall increase.
Is the market favorable to the possibility of a 0.5 basis rate under the condition that it does not fear an economic downturn? Or is it because they expect a significant sell-off due to concerns about an economic downturn when the FOMC actually raises the rate to 0.5? It is difficult to determine.
The most important thing is to use the nick before the FOMC, why did you write this article? If there are no economic concerns, I think 0.25 is appropriate. It is normal to think that if the market sees the possibility of 0.5, it would confirm what kind of reaction it would have. In that case, it means that the FRB is seriously considering the possibility of 0.5. What do you all think?
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  • ごとくん : Who benefits[undefined]
    It would be nice if it was burnt out 🙆‍♀️

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  • J_M_RIN OP : I think there is a possibility that the Federal Reserve (FRB) considers preventing the early overheating of the stock market and continuing the Goldilocks situation as the best for the current US economy, considering the risk of inflation resurgence in my mind. The market is not factoring in the risk of inflation resurgence at the moment, and I believe that what the FRB is truly concerned about is the resurgence of inflation, not employment.[undefined]There is a strong possibility that they were asked to write articles that hint at concerns about an economic downturn in order to maintain that balance.

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  • J_M_RIN OP ごとくん : FRBが物価の安定、雇用の最大化を目指して真面目にやってるだけだと思いますよ[undefined]

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  • ごとくん : I feel relieved. After receiving the vaccine, I had shingles, severe back pain, and then developed colon cancer, which made me very suspicious.

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  • J_M_RIN OP : ✨My analysis result✨ Considering the risk of inflation resurgence, I determined that 0.25 is appropriate, as a measure by the FRB to prevent the overheating of stocks.[undefined]At the moment...

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  • HONDA N-ONE : Doesn't this count as market manipulation?
    Spreading rumors and such?

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  • codeOZ(家長) : The Federal Reserve is doing well so far. I think it's amazing that they can maintain the status quo with only well-adjusted data. If there were no financial crisis, it might be more of a risk-on due to inflation concerns rather than an economic downturn.[undefined]Even with SOXL, it's certain that the 10% to 20% weekly movement is driven by speculators.

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  • J_M_RIN OP HONDA N-ONE : Nick's articles have always been a tool that the FRB has used skillfully, of course, we also need to consider the possibility that they are seriously considering 0.5.[undefined]

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  • tena0623 : I was interested in this article. I feel like there was also news from the Bank of Japan around the same time, such as considering raising interest rates in December and January, and I thought that's why the yen strengthened.[undefined]I also realized that the United States does things like political ad-balloons similar to Japan.[undefined]In the short term, individual investors who are swayed by this article may experience declines, but I understand that a stable uptrend will continue.

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  • J_M_RIN OP tena0623 : Please take a moment to consider the future direction of the dollar-yen exchange rate in the medium to long term, assuming it was factored in yesterday. If it is 0.25... If the Bank of Japan does not raise interest rates... If it does happen... and so on, please think flexibly.[undefined]

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J_M_RIN
SOXL、TSLL、マイニング株で中長期でまずは資産1億目指しているものです┏○ﾍﾟｺｯ 鋼のメンタルは客観的データに基づくもの
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