Is Buffett's increase in buying a good opportunity for the 5 major trading companies? Each company is bullish, saying that the impact of the strong yen and interest rate hikes is "slight"! 【Summary of Financial Results】
The first quarter financial results of the five major trading companies for the fiscal year ending March 2025 (1Q, April to June)...are influenced by asset sales and exchange rate gains due to the depreciation of the yen.) showed thatandcontribute.三菱商事など３社が増益となった。通期純利益見通しに対する進捗率の高さも目立った。一方、直近では日銀の追加利上げ懸念や米利下げ観測から円高圧力が強まり、１Q期間中より円高となる１ドル147円台の水準で推移している。各社の25年3月期の想定為替レートは140〜145円。現行の水準が続く、または円高が進行すると、円安による利益上振れ期待が剥落していくことになる。ただ各社の最高財務責任者（CFO）は決算会見で足元のThe impact of the yen's appreciation and additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan is not significant, but limited.And so on, they commented.also experienced an inverted yield curve.That's it.
The early August, when the earnings announcements of trading companies were concentrated, saw a large crash in the Japanese stock market. The Nikkei Stock Average fell by about 20% from the end of July to August 5th.As a result,the valuations of the five major trading companies also dropped significantly.５大商社のバリュエーションも大きく下がったAccording to a Bloomberg article on the 8th, the renowned investor Vroom suggested earlier about increasing the shareholding ratio of Japanese trading companies.Therefore, it is pointed out that it is a good opportunity for him to increase his holdings. Check the financial results and stock prices of each company, as well as the views of analysts.During the earnings announcement period, there was a large drop in share prices! Mitsubishi Corporation has the lowest decline rate in August and is slow to decline.Summary:Famous investor Warren Buffett has hinted at further increasing his shareholding ratio in Japanese trading companies in the past. Check the financial results and stock prices of each company, as well as the views of analysts.
★During the earnings announcement period, there was a large drop in share prices! Mitsubishi Corporation has the lowest decline rate in August and is slow to decline.
<Overview>
▼1Q earnings will be announced by Sumitomo Corp. on July 31, Marubeni Corp. on August 1, Mitsui & Co., Mitsubishi Corp. on August 1, and Itochu Corp. on August 5.
▼The biggest drop since August in terms of decline rate.Mitsubishi Corp. had the lowest decline rate.Following Mitsubishi Corp., Sumitomo Corp., Itochu Corp., Mitsui & Co., and Marubeni Corp.
▼At the 1Q stage, Mitsubishi Corp. had the highest progress rate for the full-year net profit forecast at 37%.Mitsubishi Corp. had the highest progress rate at 37%.Mitsui & Co. accounted for 31%, Marubeni for 30%, Sumitomo Corporation for 24%, and Itochu for 23%.
Exchange rate sensitivity: The impact on net profit when the exchange rate fluctuates by 1 yen against the US dollar.Mitsubishi Corporation has the largest impact on net profit at 5 billion yen.Mitsui & Co. (3.4 billion yen), Itochu Corporation (2.6 billion yen), Sumitomo Corporation (2 billion yen), and Marubeni (1.6 billion yen) follow.
▼The largest deviation from the analyst average target stock price from the closing price on the 8th is Mitsui & Co. (53.14%).Followed by Marubeni (47.44%), Sumitomo Corporation (42.78%), Mitsubishi Corporation (36.6%), and Itochu Corporation (31.8%).
Major domestic securities analysts say that some trading companies had a decrease in profit in the April-June quarter excluding the weakening of the yen. The company's March 2025 fiscal year planIt can be said that Mitsubishi Corporation is the only financial estimates that are conservative enough to have a high possibility of exceeding expectations. It was pointed out.
▼Only Sumitomo Corporation has a PBR of less than 1.is turning out to be.
▼1Q earnings will be announced by Sumitomo Corp. on July 31, Marubeni Corp. on August 1, Mitsui & Co., Mitsubishi Corp. on August 1, and Itochu Corp. on August 5.
▼The biggest drop since August in terms of decline rate.Mitsubishi Corp. had the lowest decline rate.Following Mitsubishi Corp., Sumitomo Corp., Itochu Corp., Mitsui & Co., and Marubeni Corp.
▼At the 1Q stage, Mitsubishi Corp. had the highest progress rate for the full-year net profit forecast at 37%.Mitsubishi Corp. had the highest progress rate at 37%.Mitsui & Co. accounted for 31%, Marubeni for 30%, Sumitomo Corporation for 24%, and Itochu for 23%.
Exchange rate sensitivity: The impact on net profit when the exchange rate fluctuates by 1 yen against the US dollar.Mitsubishi Corporation has the largest impact on net profit at 5 billion yen.Mitsui & Co. (3.4 billion yen), Itochu Corporation (2.6 billion yen), Sumitomo Corporation (2 billion yen), and Marubeni (1.6 billion yen) follow.
▼The largest deviation from the analyst average target stock price from the closing price on the 8th is Mitsui & Co. (53.14%).Followed by Marubeni (47.44%), Sumitomo Corporation (42.78%), Mitsubishi Corporation (36.6%), and Itochu Corporation (31.8%).
Major domestic securities analysts say that some trading companies had a decrease in profit in the April-June quarter excluding the weakening of the yen. The company's March 2025 fiscal year planIt can be said that Mitsubishi Corporation is the only financial estimates that are conservative enough to have a high possibility of exceeding expectations. It was pointed out.
▼Only Sumitomo Corporation has a PBR of less than 1.is turning out to be.
◆ $Mitsubishi (8058.JP)$
・1Q net profitA 12% increase compared to the same period last year.354.3 billion yen,Exceeded market expectations.
- The profit was boosted by the sale of part of a coal mine for ironmaking coal in Australia and the weakening of the yen.
- CFO Yuuzou Nochi analyzes the exchange rate, saying that it is likely to move slightly in the direction of a stronger yen due to the narrowing of the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States. However, he said that there is no need to significantly revise the assumed exchange rate of 1 dollar equals 143 yen at this point in time.- CFO Yuuzou Nochi analyzes the exchange rate, saying that it is likely to move slightly in the direction of a stronger yen due to the narrowing of the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States. However, he said that there is no need to significantly revise the assumed exchange rate of 1 dollar equals 143 yen at this point in time.- CFO Yuuzou Nochi analyzes the exchange rate, saying that it is likely to move slightly in the direction of a stronger yen due to the narrowing of the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States. However, he said that there is no need to significantly revise the assumed exchange rate of 1 dollar equals 143 yen at this point in time.
- Foreign analysts in the report commented on the company's full-year forecast, stating that it does not include gains from the sale of companies such as Japan KFC Holdings.It can be expected that there will be upward revisions and additional shareholder returns at the time of the previous fiscal period's earnings announcement.It was pointed out.
・1Q net profitA 12% increase compared to the same period last year.354.3 billion yen,Exceeded market expectations.
- The profit was boosted by the sale of part of a coal mine for ironmaking coal in Australia and the weakening of the yen.
- CFO Yuuzou Nochi analyzes the exchange rate, saying that it is likely to move slightly in the direction of a stronger yen due to the narrowing of the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States. However, he said that there is no need to significantly revise the assumed exchange rate of 1 dollar equals 143 yen at this point in time.- CFO Yuuzou Nochi analyzes the exchange rate, saying that it is likely to move slightly in the direction of a stronger yen due to the narrowing of the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States. However, he said that there is no need to significantly revise the assumed exchange rate of 1 dollar equals 143 yen at this point in time.- CFO Yuuzou Nochi analyzes the exchange rate, saying that it is likely to move slightly in the direction of a stronger yen due to the narrowing of the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States. However, he said that there is no need to significantly revise the assumed exchange rate of 1 dollar equals 143 yen at this point in time.
- Foreign analysts in the report commented on the company's full-year forecast, stating that it does not include gains from the sale of companies such as Japan KFC Holdings.It can be expected that there will be upward revisions and additional shareholder returns at the time of the previous fiscal period's earnings announcement.It was pointed out.
◆ $Mitsui (8031.JP)$
・1Q net profitmarket expectations.。
・Increased profits due to the sale of shares in Indonesian coal-fired power plants and Brazilian freight transportation companies, etc.
・Tetsuya Shigeta, CFO, stated that in the future, the yen will move in the range of around 145 yen to 150 yen against the dollar, and that the yen will gradually appreciate. This is the best case scenario.The impact of the current yen appreciation and the Bank of Japan's additional interest rate hikes on performance is not significant.Indicated by Bloomberg on the 1st.
Foreign analysts have a rollover funding framework since the previous mid-term plan.Expectations for continued dividend increases, share buybacks, and profit expansion through implementation of growth investments with room to spare."JP Morgan sees potential'",
The assumed exchange rate is 1 dollar145 yen.。
・1Q net profitmarket expectations.。
・Increased profits due to the sale of shares in Indonesian coal-fired power plants and Brazilian freight transportation companies, etc.
・Tetsuya Shigeta, CFO, stated that in the future, the yen will move in the range of around 145 yen to 150 yen against the dollar, and that the yen will gradually appreciate. This is the best case scenario.The impact of the current yen appreciation and the Bank of Japan's additional interest rate hikes on performance is not significant.Indicated by Bloomberg on the 1st.
Foreign analysts have a rollover funding framework since the previous mid-term plan.Expectations for continued dividend increases, share buybacks, and profit expansion through implementation of growth investments with room to spare."JP Morgan sees potential'",
The assumed exchange rate is 1 dollar145 yen.。
◆ $ITOCHU (8001.JP)$
・1Q net profitfell below market expectations。
・North American iron & steel operations are struggling. The decrease in performance was also due to the backlash of a one-time profit in the battery business in the same period of the previous year.
・CFO Tsuyoshi Hachimura commented on the slowing U.S. economy, stating that "In our U.S. operations, there are slowdowns in leasing and housing-related businesses, but it may be premature to determine if it will lead to a real economic downturn.""Is it not too early to determine if it will really lead to an economic downturn?"He also mentioned, in regards to the sudden drop in stock prices, that "There are also aspects that could have a positive impact on the acquisitions we are considering in the future." (Nikkei Shimbun, 5th)
- The average exchange rate for this period is 1 dollar is equivalent to 145 yen. , and the end of the period is140 yenAssumed to be.
・1Q net profitfell below market expectations。
・North American iron & steel operations are struggling. The decrease in performance was also due to the backlash of a one-time profit in the battery business in the same period of the previous year.
・CFO Tsuyoshi Hachimura commented on the slowing U.S. economy, stating that "In our U.S. operations, there are slowdowns in leasing and housing-related businesses, but it may be premature to determine if it will lead to a real economic downturn.""Is it not too early to determine if it will really lead to an economic downturn?"He also mentioned, in regards to the sudden drop in stock prices, that "There are also aspects that could have a positive impact on the acquisitions we are considering in the future." (Nikkei Shimbun, 5th)
- The average exchange rate for this period is 1 dollar is equivalent to 145 yen. , and the end of the period is140 yenAssumed to be.
◆ $Sumitomo (8053.JP)$
- Decrease in current profit due to the reaction decrease of the part of the profit from the sale of the US business recorded in the previous period.Decrease in current profits due to recoil reduction。
- At a press conference, CFO Reiji Morooka stated that the impact of rising interest rates on funding costs is limited in the short term.As for the rise in interest rates, he stated that the impact on funding costs is limited in the short term.and explained that even if interest rates were to rise by 1%, the increase in debt costs would be around several billion yen.
- According to a report by a foreign securities firm, the progress rate for the annual net profit plan is 24%, even though there is no profit from the South African iron ore business in the current period.- A fairly strong start."JP Morgan sees potential'",
- The assumed exchange rate is 1 dollar.140 yen.
- Decrease in current profit due to the reaction decrease of the part of the profit from the sale of the US business recorded in the previous period.Decrease in current profits due to recoil reduction。
- At a press conference, CFO Reiji Morooka stated that the impact of rising interest rates on funding costs is limited in the short term.As for the rise in interest rates, he stated that the impact on funding costs is limited in the short term.and explained that even if interest rates were to rise by 1%, the increase in debt costs would be around several billion yen.
- According to a report by a foreign securities firm, the progress rate for the annual net profit plan is 24%, even though there is no profit from the South African iron ore business in the current period.- A fairly strong start."JP Morgan sees potential'",
- The assumed exchange rate is 1 dollar.140 yen.
◆ $Marubeni (8002.JP)$
・The net profit for the first quarter was 142.6 billion yen,below market expectations (145.4 billion yen)。
・At the earnings conference, Takayuki Furuya, CFO of Marubeni, stated that the impact on funding costs from the stronger yen and interest rate hikes is limited.He noted that the company will monitor the continuation and pace of interest rate hikes, and indicated that under the proper inflation accompanying interest rate hikes, there would be positive effects on the company's domestic operations. (Bloomberg, 1st)Stated that. While keeping a close eye on the sustainability and pace of future interest rate hikes, the company expressed a view that if economic growth progresses under appropriate inflation accompanying the interest rate hikes, it will have a positive impact on the company's domestic business. (Bloomberg on the 1st)
- Foreign analysts in their report seem particularly pessimistic about the underperformance of the main agribusiness. - Impression of an overreaction. "JP Morgan sees potential'",
- Assuming an average exchange rate of 140 yen per dollar for this fiscal year. - 1 dollar is assumed to be 140 yen. -
- The aircraft leasing business was profitable, and the negative goodwill due to additional investment in Mizuho Leasing also boosted profits. The profit increase effect due to depreciation of the yen is approximately 9 billion yen.
・The net profit for the first quarter was 142.6 billion yen,below market expectations (145.4 billion yen)。
・At the earnings conference, Takayuki Furuya, CFO of Marubeni, stated that the impact on funding costs from the stronger yen and interest rate hikes is limited.He noted that the company will monitor the continuation and pace of interest rate hikes, and indicated that under the proper inflation accompanying interest rate hikes, there would be positive effects on the company's domestic operations. (Bloomberg, 1st)Stated that. While keeping a close eye on the sustainability and pace of future interest rate hikes, the company expressed a view that if economic growth progresses under appropriate inflation accompanying the interest rate hikes, it will have a positive impact on the company's domestic business. (Bloomberg on the 1st)
- Foreign analysts in their report seem particularly pessimistic about the underperformance of the main agribusiness. - Impression of an overreaction. "JP Morgan sees potential'",
- Assuming an average exchange rate of 140 yen per dollar for this fiscal year. - 1 dollar is assumed to be 140 yen. -
- The aircraft leasing business was profitable, and the negative goodwill due to additional investment in Mizuho Leasing also boosted profits. The profit increase effect due to depreciation of the yen is approximately 9 billion yen.
- moomoo News: Kathy
Source: IR materials from various companies, Nikkei, Bloomberg, Jiji Press, moomoo
Source: IR materials from various companies, Nikkei, Bloomberg, Jiji Press, moomoo
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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