Is it an opportunity for the five major trading companies to buy more for Mr. Buffett? The impact of yen appreciation and interest rate hikes is “minor” and each company is bullish! [Summary of financial results]
Financial results for the first quarter of the fiscal year ending March 25 of the five major trading companies (1Q, April-June) isExchange gains due to asset sales and depreciation of the yen contributedThenThree companies, including Mitsubishi Corporation, increased profitsIt became. In relation to the full-year net profit forecastHigh progress rateIt also stood out. Meanwhile, recently, pressure on the yen has intensified due to concerns about additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and observations of a reduction in US interest rates,The level of the 147-yen range of yen per dollar, which is higher than during the 1Q periodIt has been moving at Expected exchange rates for each company for the fiscal year ending 25/3140 to 145 yen. If the current level continues or the appreciation of the yen progresses, expectations of an increase in profit due to the depreciation of the yen will fall. However, the chief financial officers (CFO) of each company are currently at the earnings conferenceThe impact of the appreciation of the yen and the Bank of Japan's additional interest rate hike is “not significant” and “limited”They are commenting on things like thatA bullish attitudeThat's it.
A major crash in Japanese stocks occurred in early August when trading company financial results announcements were concentrated. The Nikkei Stock Average by 8/5 compared to the closing price at the end of JulyA decline of about 20%Then togetherThe valuations of the five major trading companies have also dropped drastically. In an article on the 8th, Bloomberg invests in famous investorsWarren Buffett previously suggested a further increase in Japanese trading company stock ownership ratiosFrom what I was doing, “For himWhen it's an opportunity to buy more” it is pointed out. The financial details of each company, the position of stock prices, and analysts' views were confirmed.
★There was a big crash during the financial results announcement period! The rate of decline in August was the lowest, and it is Mitsubishi Corporation that is reluctant to decline
＜Overview＞
▼1Q financial results were announced by Sumitomo Corporation on July 31, Marubeni, Mitsui & Co., and Mitsubishi Corporation on 8/1, and ITOCHU Corporation on the 5th.
▼The one that first came in August when there was a crashMitsubishi Corporation had the lowest rate of declineIt continues with Sumitomo Corporation, ITOCHU Corporation, Mitsui & Co., and Marubeni.
▼ In response to full-year net profit forecasts on the 1Q stageMitsubishi Corporation had the highest progress rate of 37%Mitsui & Co., Ltd. was 31%, Marubeni 30%, Sumitomo Corporation 24%, and Itochu 23%.
▼ Exchange rate sensitivity: when it rises or falls by 1 yen against the dollarMitsubishi Corp. had the biggest impact on net profit at 5 billion yenIt continues with Mitsui & Co. (3.4 billion yen), ITOCHU (2.6 billion yen), Sumitomo Corporation (2 billion yen), and Marubeni (1.6 billion yen).
▼Mitsui & Co. (53.14%) has the largest divergence from the closing price on the 8th to the analysts' average target stock priceMarubeni (47.44%), Sumitomo Corporation (42.78%), Mitsubishi Corporation (36.6%), and ITOCHU Corporation (31.8%) continue.
▼ An analyst at a major domestic securities company said, “Excluding the effects of the depreciation of the yen, there were trading companies that saw a decline in profit in the April-6 fiscal year. Of the company's plan for the fiscal year ending 25/3The only company that can say that there is a high possibility of an upturn is Mitsubishi Corporation, whose forecasts are conservative” he pointed out.
▼Only Sumitomo Corporation's PBR split by 1 timesIt has become.
▼1Q financial results were announced by Sumitomo Corporation on July 31, Marubeni, Mitsui & Co., and Mitsubishi Corporation on 8/1, and ITOCHU Corporation on the 5th.
▼The one that first came in August when there was a crashMitsubishi Corporation had the lowest rate of declineIt continues with Sumitomo Corporation, ITOCHU Corporation, Mitsui & Co., and Marubeni.
▼ In response to full-year net profit forecasts on the 1Q stageMitsubishi Corporation had the highest progress rate of 37%Mitsui & Co., Ltd. was 31%, Marubeni 30%, Sumitomo Corporation 24%, and Itochu 23%.
▼ Exchange rate sensitivity: when it rises or falls by 1 yen against the dollarMitsubishi Corp. had the biggest impact on net profit at 5 billion yenIt continues with Mitsui & Co. (3.4 billion yen), ITOCHU (2.6 billion yen), Sumitomo Corporation (2 billion yen), and Marubeni (1.6 billion yen).
▼Mitsui & Co. (53.14%) has the largest divergence from the closing price on the 8th to the analysts' average target stock priceMarubeni (47.44%), Sumitomo Corporation (42.78%), Mitsubishi Corporation (36.6%), and ITOCHU Corporation (31.8%) continue.
▼ An analyst at a major domestic securities company said, “Excluding the effects of the depreciation of the yen, there were trading companies that saw a decline in profit in the April-6 fiscal year. Of the company's plan for the fiscal year ending 25/3The only company that can say that there is a high possibility of an upturn is Mitsubishi Corporation, whose forecasts are conservative” he pointed out.
▼Only Sumitomo Corporation's PBR split by 1 timesIt has become.
◆ $Mitsubishi (8058.JP)$
・1Q net profit12% increase compared to the same period last year354.3 billion yen ofIt surpassed market expectations.
・The sale of part of Australia's coal (coking coal) coal mines for steelmaking and the depreciation of the yen boosted profits.
・Chief Financial Officer Yuzo Nouchi (CFO) analyzed the exchange rate as “I think there is a high possibility that the yen will rise slightly” due to the shrinking trend of interest rate differences between Japan and the US. However, as of MayRegarding the estimated exchange rate of 1 dollar = 143 yen, he said, “I don't think there is a need for a major review at this time” I said. (Bloomberg on the 1st)
・Since profits from sales of Japan KFC Holdings etc. are not factored into the company's full-year forecast, foreign analysts reported,”An upward correction at the time of the first half settlement and the presentation of additional shareholder returns can be expected” he pointed out.
・1Q net profit12% increase compared to the same period last year354.3 billion yen ofIt surpassed market expectations.
・The sale of part of Australia's coal (coking coal) coal mines for steelmaking and the depreciation of the yen boosted profits.
・Chief Financial Officer Yuzo Nouchi (CFO) analyzed the exchange rate as “I think there is a high possibility that the yen will rise slightly” due to the shrinking trend of interest rate differences between Japan and the US. However, as of MayRegarding the estimated exchange rate of 1 dollar = 143 yen, he said, “I don't think there is a need for a major review at this time” I said. (Bloomberg on the 1st)
・Since profits from sales of Japan KFC Holdings etc. are not factored into the company's full-year forecast, foreign analysts reported,”An upward correction at the time of the first half settlement and the presentation of additional shareholder returns can be expected” he pointed out.
◆ $Mitsui (8031.JP)$
・1Q net profitExceeded market expectations。
・Profit increased due to partial sales of Indonesian coal-fired power and Brazilian freight forwarding company shares.
・CFO Tetsuya Shigeta expressed the view that the yen will move “between 145 yen and 150 yen” against the dollar in the future, and “the appreciation of the yen will progress moderately. This is the best scenario,” he said.The impact on financial results due to the current appreciation of the yen or additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan is not significantIt showed recognition. (1 day Bloomberg)
・Foreign analysts have carry-over funding quotas from previous mid-term accounts,”Profit expansion can be expected through continuous dividend increases, share buybacks, and execution of growth investments with room” It was said.
・The estimated exchange rate is 1 dollar145 yen。
・1Q net profitExceeded market expectations。
・Profit increased due to partial sales of Indonesian coal-fired power and Brazilian freight forwarding company shares.
・CFO Tetsuya Shigeta expressed the view that the yen will move “between 145 yen and 150 yen” against the dollar in the future, and “the appreciation of the yen will progress moderately. This is the best scenario,” he said.The impact on financial results due to the current appreciation of the yen or additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan is not significantIt showed recognition. (1 day Bloomberg)
・Foreign analysts have carry-over funding quotas from previous mid-term accounts,”Profit expansion can be expected through continuous dividend increases, share buybacks, and execution of growth investments with room” It was said.
・The estimated exchange rate is 1 dollar145 yen。
◆ $ITOCHU (8001.JP)$
・1Q net profitIt fell short of market expectations。
・The North American steel business is struggling. The reaction that there was a transient profit related to the battery business in the same period last year was also a factor in the decline in profit.
・CFO Tsuyoshi Hachimura said about the US recession, “There are parts of our US business that are slowing down due to leasing and housing-related businesses,Isn't it too early to determine whether it will really lead to economic deteriorationIt expressed the view”. Regarding the rapid stock depreciation, it was also stated that “there are parts that work positively for acquisitions that are being considered in the future.” (5th Nihon Keizai Shimbun)
・What is the average rate for the current fiscal year145 yen per dollar, when is the end of the term140 yenIt is assumed.
・1Q net profitIt fell short of market expectations。
・The North American steel business is struggling. The reaction that there was a transient profit related to the battery business in the same period last year was also a factor in the decline in profit.
・CFO Tsuyoshi Hachimura said about the US recession, “There are parts of our US business that are slowing down due to leasing and housing-related businesses,Isn't it too early to determine whether it will really lead to economic deteriorationIt expressed the view”. Regarding the rapid stock depreciation, it was also stated that “there are parts that work positively for acquisitions that are being considered in the future.” (5th Nihon Keizai Shimbun)
・What is the average rate for the current fiscal year145 yen per dollar, when is the end of the term140 yenIt is assumed.
◆ $Sumitomo (8053.JP)$
・Profit from the sale of part of the US business recorded in the previous fiscal yearProfit declined in the current fiscal year due to a decrease in reactionto.
・CFO Reiji Morooka said at the press conferenceRegarding interest rate increases, “there is an impact on financing costs in the short term, but it is limited”It showed that point of view. It was explained that even if interest rates rose 1%, the increase in debt costs would be about half of several billion yen. Also, since the effects of rising interest rates are added to income in the medium to long term, it was decided that the effects would not continue to remain. Also, it is said that there will be no change in the location of fund raising in line with the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike. (1 day, Bloomberg)
・Foreign securities are reported, and the progress rate against the full-year net profit plan is 24% even when profit from the South African iron ore business is not recorded in the current fiscal year,”A reasonably strong start” It was said.
・Estimated exchange rate is 1 dollar140 yen.
・Profit from the sale of part of the US business recorded in the previous fiscal yearProfit declined in the current fiscal year due to a decrease in reactionto.
・CFO Reiji Morooka said at the press conferenceRegarding interest rate increases, “there is an impact on financing costs in the short term, but it is limited”It showed that point of view. It was explained that even if interest rates rose 1%, the increase in debt costs would be about half of several billion yen. Also, since the effects of rising interest rates are added to income in the medium to long term, it was decided that the effects would not continue to remain. Also, it is said that there will be no change in the location of fund raising in line with the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike. (1 day, Bloomberg)
・Foreign securities are reported, and the progress rate against the full-year net profit plan is 24% even when profit from the South African iron ore business is not recorded in the current fiscal year,”A reasonably strong start” It was said.
・Estimated exchange rate is 1 dollar140 yen.
◆ $Marubeni (8002.JP)$
・Net profit for the first quarter was 142.6 billion yenIt fell short of market expectations (145.4 billion yen)。
・Marubeni CFO Furuya Takayuki said at the earnings conference in response to the appreciation of the yen and interest rate hikesThe impact on funding costs is limitedI said that. After closely monitoring the continuity and pace of interest rate hikes in the future, they expressed the view that if economic growth progresses under appropriate inflation associated with interest rate increases, there will be a positive impact on the company's domestic business. (1 day Bloomberg)
・According to reports from foreign analysts, it seems that the downturn in the agri business, which is their main force, is particularly disgusted,”Impression of an overreaction” It was said.
・What is the average rate for the current fiscal year140 yen per dollarAssume.
・In addition to an increase in profits in the aircraft leasing business, negative goodwill associated with additional investment in Mizuho Leasing also boosted profits. The increase in profit due to the depreciation of the yen was around 9 billion yen.
・Net profit for the first quarter was 142.6 billion yenIt fell short of market expectations (145.4 billion yen)。
・Marubeni CFO Furuya Takayuki said at the earnings conference in response to the appreciation of the yen and interest rate hikesThe impact on funding costs is limitedI said that. After closely monitoring the continuity and pace of interest rate hikes in the future, they expressed the view that if economic growth progresses under appropriate inflation associated with interest rate increases, there will be a positive impact on the company's domestic business. (1 day Bloomberg)
・According to reports from foreign analysts, it seems that the downturn in the agri business, which is their main force, is particularly disgusted,”Impression of an overreaction” It was said.
・What is the average rate for the current fiscal year140 yen per dollarAssume.
・In addition to an increase in profits in the aircraft leasing business, negative goodwill associated with additional investment in Mizuho Leasing also boosted profits. The increase in profit due to the depreciation of the yen was around 9 billion yen.
-MOOMOO News Kathy
Source: IR materials from various companies, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Bloomberg, Jiji Press, Moomoo
Source: IR materials from various companies, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Bloomberg, Jiji Press, Moomoo
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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