Is there a temporary decline in the yield of U.S. 10-year bonds? What will happen in the future?
Technical analysis (Rating: 2.2/5).
- After the announcement of a rate cut in the United States, it broke below the support line of the upward trend from July. In addition, concerns about the formation of a head and shoulders pattern have emerged due to this decline. Even if it rises, there is a possibility that the support line will act as a resistance line in the future. If it is bounded by the rise and resistance, it will take a step towards the formation of a head and shoulders pattern, and there is room for a decline to around 55.
- Currently, it is in a state of being blocked by the bearish trend factors "(2) Soft landing expectations -> Hard landing concerns (around 60)" and "(3) Negative impression of the extent of the rate cut", and a trend reversal strong enough to negate (2) and (3) is necessary for a new high update. Regarding (2), it seems to have been resolved by Mr. Howell's remarks, but regarding (3), it still seems that the rise in the yield of U.S. 10-year treasury notes is lingering. It is advisable to judge based on the yield of U.S. 10-year treasury notes in the future. (The rise in the yield of U.S. 10-year treasury notes is believed to be temporary, so it is better to wait and judge for a while).
- It is certain that it is in an upward trend, but the momentum seems to be changing rapidly.
・米半導体大手エヌビディア(NVDA.O), opens new tabは２８日、第３・四半期（８─１０月）の売上高が３２５億ドル（プラスマイナス２％）になると予想した。市場予想（３１７億７０００万ドル）とほぼ一致する水準にとどまり、株価は引け後の時間外取引で６％下落した。
・Candlestick chart (Evaluation: 2/5)
・米半導体大手エヌビディア(NVDA.O), opens new tabは２８日、第３・四半期（８─１０月）の売上高が３２５億ドル（プラスマイナス２％）になると予想した。市場予想（３１７億７０００万ドル）とほぼ一致する水準にとどまり、株価は引け後の時間外取引で６％下落した。
・Candlestick chart (Evaluation: 2/5)
•- Since the decline on 8/30, there have been consecutive positive candles, but since 9/18, there have been many long shadow negative candles, leading to a decline.
Is it becoming somewhat heavy on the upside?
Chart pattern (Rating: 2/5)
- After the announcement of a rate cut in the US, it broke below the support line of the upward trend from July.Also, concerns about the formation of a head and shoulders pattern have arisen due to this decline.
Even if it rises, there is a possibility that the support line will act as a resistance line and weigh on the upside in the future.If the rise is confined by resistance, there is room for a decline to around 55.
☆Dow Theory (Rating: 2/5)
- From the downward trend material "① Concern about rising unemployment rate due to downward revision of employment statistics", the trend changes from rise to fall. However, due to the outflow of funds from risk assets and the decrease in the unemployment rate, the trend changes from fall to rise, exceeding the level of ①. However, there was a temporary negative impression about the cut in interest rates in the United States, and it temporarily fell below the level of "② Expectation for a soft landing → Concern about a hard landing" at a low level.
- Currently, it is in a state where it is blocked by the downward trend materials "② Expectation for a soft landing → Concern about a hard landing (around 60)" and "③ Negative impression about the extent of interest rate cuts", and a trend reversal that cancels out ② and ③ is required to update the high. Regarding ②, it seems that it can be resolved by Mr. Howell's remarks, but regarding ③, it seems that the rise in the U.S. 10-year bond yield is still lingering.
- In the future, it seems that it would be better to determine by looking at the U.S. 10-year bond yield. (It would be better to wait for a while to make a determination, as the rise in U.S. 10-year bond yield is considered to be temporary.)
☆ Moving average line × Volume moving average line (Rating: 1.75/5)
- Moving averages: The candlestick chart is below the 5-day and 21-day moving averages, and the downward momentum is starting to emerge. Will a death cross occur at the 5/21-day moving averages? (1.5/5)
- Volume moving averages: A death cross occurred in the short-term and medium-term moving averages. The volume is also gradually decreasing. (2/5)
- Is the downward momentum gradually increasing?
☆一目均衡表×DMI(評価: 3.5/5)
- Ichimoku Cloud: The three lines are improving. The lagging line is pointing downwards, but there is no twist in the cloud or reversal of roles. (4.5/5)
- DMI: Cross occurred with MDI/ADX at 9/10. However, the distance between PDI/ADX is narrowing. (2.5/5)
《Smart Futubull, Not Afraid of Stock Market Manipulation》As a trend, it is upward, but there are some signs of decline.
☆BOLL × RSI × MACD (Rating: 2.5/5)
- BOLL: Rapid decline from +2σ to the baseline line since 9/17. (1/5)
- RSI: Moving from 64 to the lower half of 55. Slight overbought condition transitioning to a moderate level. (3/5)
- MACD: Dead cross occurred due to U.S. rate cut on 9/18. The decline has continued since then. (1/5)
The momentum is rapidly tilting towards a sharp decline.Has the overbought level also reached the appropriate value, with room for further decline?
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