Is long-term interest rate capped at 1.5% after the Bank of Japan's policy revisions? The Bank of Japan performs two operations to stop interest rate increases

The Bank of Japan carried out two open market operations (operations) on the 24th. Observations of YCC (yield curve control) re-revisions by the Bank of Japan surfaced, and it seems that the aim was to put a stop to interest rate increases in interest rates in response to the fact that long-term interest rates were set at 0.87%, which is a high interest rate for the first time in 10 years, on the 23rd. The long-term interest rate on the 24th fell to 0.84%.
However, interest rates in the US on the 23rd fell rapidly to 4.83% after 10-year US bonds hit the 5% mark, and it can also be seen that Japan's interest rate drop was slight compared to this. Continued observations of YCC revisions and concerns about rising interest rates associated with it have not been dispelled, and it seems that it will also have an impact on the stock market.

The effects of the Bank of Japan operation are limited
There are two operations performed by the Bank of Japan on the 24th: a temporary government bond purchase operation, which will be the third time this month, and a common collateral fund supply operation with a period of 5 years. The targets of government bond purchase operations are government bonds with a remaining period of 5 to 10 years or less and 10 to 25 years or less, and the purchase amounts are 300 billion yen and 100 billion yen, respectively. The successful bid amount for the common security fund supply operation was 1.3 trillion yen.

There are many voices that the market's reaction has cooled down regarding the two operations by the Bank of Japan. In response to the Bloomberg interview on the 24th, Director Matsukawa Tadashi of the Pine Bridge Investment Bond Management Department commented that “the sense of fear about the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting next week has abated,” while strategist Fujiwara Kazunari of Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities said,Although the Bank of Japan's positive stance on interest rate suppression has been shown, policy revision observations have not disappeared at all, making it difficult to buy the upper price” he pointed out. Naoya Hasegawa, senior strategist at Okasan Securities, is also”Since there are many investors who anticipate that the Bank of Japan will cancel negative interest rates or abolish YCC in the near future, it will be difficult for investors to move until the Bank of Japan actually makes such policy revisionsI'm talking about”.

Is the upper limit of long-term interest rates after the YCC rectification is 1.5%? interest rate rise spiral?
If the Bank of Japan actually re-revisions the YCC at the monetary policy meetings on the 30th and 31st of this month, there is a high possibility that interest rate increases will accelerate.
Senior interest rate strategist Okumura Hitoshi of SMBC Nikko Securities reports that if the Bank of Japan makes policy revisions at the monetary policy meeting at the end of the month, “if it is raised to 1.25%, there is a possibility that a YCC attack will occur,It's better to raise it to 1.5% all at once” (Bloomberg, 24th) has been pointed out. In the report, it can also be read that Mr. Okumura implicitly recommended the disfiguring YCC, stating that “if the degree of YCC obsolescence intensifies, there is almost no market impact when YCC is actually abolished in the future, so there is a possibility that the situation where investors have been excessively restrained from investing in government bonds will improve.”

In response to this, Chief Strategist Matsuzawa-naka of Nomura Securities stated that “the bond exchange rate unexpectedly reacted greatly to observation reports of Bank of Japan policy revisions,” and then make policy revisions while the turmoil in the US bond market has not subsided,”There is a high risk that Japan-US bonds will resonate and a spiral of decline (interest rates rise) will occurThe view that” (same) was shown.