This week's earnings and economic calendar (9/2~9/6) - a turning point for the rising market? Will the time for revenge come with the US employment statistics?
Will the Japanese stock market make progress this week? September 2nd is a holiday for the US market, but due to the sense of security that the US PCE deflator and NVIDIA's earnings announced on August 30th did not cause any turbulence in the market, 週前半は買いが優勢となる可能性がある。週後半は米雇用統計の発表を控え、投資家が様子見姿勢を強めるだろう。前回の雇用統計で市場が大きく動いたこともあり、パウエル議長も「利下げの時期と幅は今後のデータ次第」と言及し 市場は雇用市場の最新の方向性を注視している。米経済懸念が再燃すれば、日本株も売り圧力が強まる可能性がある。一方、雇用統計以外にも経済指標の発表が多く、為替が急激に円高方向に振れる場合も売りが強まる可能性があり、注意が必要。
On the other hand, this week also marks the start of the September market. With the FOMC on September 17-18 and the Bank of Japan monetary policy decision meeting on September 19-20 approaching, as the US rate cut is almost certain, it is expected that the exchange rate will be less likely to move in the direction of yen depreciation. While caution is needed against sudden foreign exchange rate fluctuations,Stocks with resistance to a strong yen are attracting attention.retail stocks (excluding department stores benefiting from inbound consumption) and emerging market stocks are candidates. The growth 250 index from last weekTherefore, the focus is on further domestic demand, particularly in retail and emerging stocks.With earnings reports coming to an end, the focus will shift back to macroeconomics. Next week will be an important week to determine if the US economy can achieve a soft landing.
This week domestically, the monthly labor statistics for July will be released on the 5th. If the results for July are maintained in positive territory, there could be a strengthening of domestic demand-related stocks. On the other hand, foreign demand-related stocks are likely to be held back as they want to assess the US economy. However, in that case, there is also likely to be an increase in speculation about the Bank of Japan raising interest rates, and if rapid yen appreciation occurs, it is expected to become a burden on the entire Japanese stock market. Also, on the same day, BOJ board member Satoru Koba is scheduled to give a lecture in Kanazawa City, Ishikawa Prefecture.
In the U.S., $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$After the announcement of the earnings, the earnings season is almost over and the focus will once again shift to the macro economy. This week, there are divided opinions about . This week's US employment statistics will be a crucial opportunity to determine the future stance on rate cuts. The sharp rise in the unemployment rate in July led to a steep decline in stock prices, so the market is increasingly cautious about employment deterioration. The unemployment rate in August is expected to be 4.2%. Additionally, prior to the employment statistics, Next week will be an important week to determine if the US economy can achieve a soft landing.There is an expectation for a soft landing, and there is a possibility that an upward market trend will continue.It will be a turning point to see if the upward market trend will continue.There is a possibility that a rate cut will be expected at FOMC, but there are different views on the rate cut range.The size of the rate cut is divided in opinions.there are divided opinions about . This week's US employment statistics will be a crucial opportunity to determine the future stance on rate cuts. The sharp rise in the unemployment rate in July led to a steep decline in stock prices, so the market is increasingly cautious about employment deterioration. The unemployment rate in August is expected to be 4.2%. Additionally, prior to the employment statistics, ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Indexsuch as ADP Employment Report,Number of job openingsIt will also attract attention, including financial policy changes in the FOMC serving as a material for judgment.Beige BookIt is also scheduled to be announced.
This week, as the market's attention shifts to the expected width of the US interest rate cut in September, it is likely that there will be fluctuations in economic indicators. In particular, the employment statistics are being closely watched as a clue to determine the rate cut in September. If there is a retreat from the expectation of a significant 0.5% rate cut, there is a possibility that the US dollar will rebound. On the other hand, on the 5th, Bank of Japan MPC member Takata is scheduled to give a speech in Kanazawa City, Ishikawa Prefecture. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Nogami stated in a press conference on August 28 that their basic stance is to adjust the degree of monetary easing if it becomes more certain that the outlook for the economy and prices will be realized, and there is no change in the Bank of Japan's tightening policy. If Takata's speech is hawkish in nature, it is likely that the yen will be more likely to be bought.
出所：FactSet、MINKABU、Bloomberg、investing、ロイター
2. Super Microstock plummets due to short-selling reports and delayed annual reports! What will happen next?
samul rule
triggered. However, the creators of samul rule and the reverse yield curve indicator state that the current economic situation is complex,
and there is a possibility of the indicator issuing false alarms
6. US GDP, breaking the prediction of economic recession! Expectations for Fed rate cuts are growing.
Due to the limited sample size, predicting an economic downturn is difficult
samul rule
triggered. However, the creators of samul rule and the reverse yield curve indicator state that the current economic situation is complex,
and there is a possibility of the indicator issuing false alarms
6. US GDP, breaking the prediction of economic recession! Expectations for Fed rate cuts are growing.
Due to the limited sample size, predicting an economic downturn is difficult
In last week's market overview,The Nikkei average rose for the third consecutive week, closing at 0.03 million 8647.75 yen, an increase of 283.48 yen (0.74%) from the previous week.
In the US market, NVIDIA's earnings did not become a market catalyst, but last week's US economic indicators supported the bullish view that the Federal Reserve would achieve a soft landing. As a result, the market has been relatively steady,The Dow ended August at an all-time high.,The S&P500 approached an all-time high.However, the seasonal headwinds continue into September.This week, the three major US indices had mixed results, with the Dow up 0.94%, the S&P500 up 0.24%, and the Nasdaq down 0.92%. In terms of monthly performance, all three indices showed gains, with the Dow and S&P500 recording their 4th consecutive monthly increase.Continues. Last week, the three major US indices had mixed performances, with the Dow up 0.94%, the S&P500 up 0.24%, and the Nasdaq down 0.92%. In monthly performance, all three indices rose, with the Dow and S&P5004 consecutive months of increase.Records.
Regarding hot stocks, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Monthly performance.2.2 times increase in revenue.The final profit is2.7 timesand exceeded expectations, as well as achieving remarkable growth in sales for data centers2.5 times. In addition, they announced the establishment of a share buyback program for50 billion dollars, but the market was disappointed as the sales forecast for the highly anticipated third quarter exceeded market expectations but did not reach the most bullish estimates.The stock price temporarily dropped by 8% after hours.On Thursday,It fell about 7%.However, the impact on the overall market is limited.Wall Street's many analysts see this as a buying opportunity.According to the quarterly economic outlook released after the September FOMC meeting, a rate hike is expected once more this year. If the rate hike is postponed as expected at this meeting, BofA's Vivek Arya reaffirmed a "buy" rating and raised the target stock price.Vivek Arya of BofA reaffirmed a "buy" rating and raised the target stock price.165 dollarsJP Morgan's Harlan Sur emphasized the potential for long-term growth. Mr. Sur stated that the Blackwell chip delay will not affect earnings in 2024 and 2025.Goldman Sachs' Toshiya Hari predicts that the strong growth of the datacenter business could push the stock price up to $230. The risk-return is attractive.JP Morgan's Harlan Sur emphasized the potential for long-term growth. Mr. Sur stated that the Blackwell chip delay will not affect earnings in 2024 and 2025.JP Morgan's Harlan Sur emphasized the potential for long-term growth. Mr. Sur stated that the Blackwell chip delay will not affect earnings in 2024 and 2025.JP Morgan's Harlan Sur emphasized the potential for long-term growth. Mr. Sur stated that the Blackwell chip delay will not affect earnings in 2024 and 2025.JP Morgan's Harlan Sur emphasized the potential for long-term growth. Mr. Sur stated that the Blackwell chip delay will not affect earnings in 2024 and 2025.JP Morgan's Harlan Sur emphasized the potential for long-term growth. Mr. Sur stated that the Blackwell chip delay will not affect earnings in 2024 and 2025.JP Morgan's Harlan Sur emphasized the potential for long-term growth. Mr. Sur stated that the Blackwell chip delay will not affect earnings in 2024 and 2025.と評価した。
AI server manufacturer $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$株は、ヒンデンブルグによる空売り報告と年次報告書の提出延期の発表を受け、バリュー株の代表格とされている。、8月全体で約38％下落Samrulsignaling a recession.The leading economic index of the World Large Enterprises Unionalso experienced an inverted yield curve.Furthermore, GDP decreased for two consecutive quarters.In July 2024, the unemployment rate in the non-agricultural sectorincreased.However, the creator of the sammururu and the inverse yield curve indicator states that the current economic situation is complex.There is a possibility that the indicator may give false alarms. $Dell Technologies (DELL.US)$the leading economic index of the World Business Leaders Association
"The god of investing", led by Warren Buffett $Berkshire Hathaway-A (BRK.A.US)$は28日、Achieved a market capitalization of 1 trillion dollars.and achieved 1 trillion dollars.It became the 9th largest company in the world.This achievement, timed to coincide with Mr. Buffett's birthday,will be the best present.There is a possibility that the indicator may incorrectly issue an alert
Stated.Due to the limited sample size, it is difficult to predict the economic recession.representative of value stocks.It is considered that.
In recent days, in opinion polls for the US presidential election, due to the impact of the assassination attempt, Trump, who was once considered favorable, is being heavily challenged by Harris. In the 7 battleground states that are expected to determine the outcome of the November presidential election, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, vice president, has a slightly higher approval rating than Republican candidate Donald Trump, former president. Furthermore, Harris's support has surged among Hispanic, black, and young voters, and overall support leads Trump by 5%. The stock, which soared to $46 in the previous assassination attempt, has been falling since Harris entered the election and the prospects for victory changed significantly, recording a new all-time low below $20 last week. Although Harris is currently in a favorable position, the presidential candidate debate on September 10th remains a variable.Since Harris entered the election and the prospects for victory changed significantly, the stock price has been declining, recording a new all-time low below $20 last week. Although Harris is currently in a favorable position, the presidential candidate debate on September 10th remains a variable.出所：FactSet、MINKABU、Bloomberg、investing、ロイターExpectations for a slight rate cut in September are increasing.The 'super core inflation' in July (excluding housing and energy in the core services) increased by 3.25% compared to the previous year, marking the lowest growth rate in over three years.
出所：FactSet、MINKABU、Bloomberg、investing、ロイター
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
