NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 128.910 TSLA
Tesla
-- 440.130 QUBT
Quantum Computing
-- 25.680 MU
Micron Technology
-- 103.900 RGTI
Rigetti Computing
-- 10.6900 
Next week... depending on the FOMC meeting?
Well, it is, but there are a lot of heavy materials on the table 💦
(All in Japan time)
📅12/17 (Tue)
FOMC opens
Retail sales in November at 22:30
📅December 18 (Wednesday)
FOMC concludes
Interest rate announcement at 28:00⚠️
Updated Economic Estimates Summary (SEP) at 28:00⚠️⚠️⚠️
Chair Powell's press conference at 28:30⚠️
📅 12/19 (Thu)
GDP final figures for July to September will be released at 22:30.
New unemployment insurance claims will be released at 22:30.
Hmm, I can't let my guard down every day, can I...
Today, I've been researching and thinking about MSTR, so I was thinking about posting about it, but I'm also interested in BTC, which makes me hesitant 💦
⭐️Bitcoin⭐️
First, I was looking forward to the inverted three bottoms pattern in another post, but it seems to have been denied... It was close, but oh well... 50x long will have to wait for another opportunity 💰
↑ It's the same chart, but it seems to be heading towards forming a smaller inverted three bottoms pattern next ✨ The question here is, what about an inverted three bottoms pattern in the high price range?...
First of all, the head and shoulders pattern is formed in the low price range to indicate a trend reversal, so it's not exactly the low price range right now, is it...
There are still positive factors, as the red circle heading downward in the outside bar indicates a potential reversal, while the blue circle high exceeds it, resulting in a denial of the outside bar ✨ Although there was a slight drop from there, it seems like BTC is maintaining a solid trend 💪
MACD is also denying the death cross, suggesting a continuation of the trend, and RSI is at 59, indicating a cooling off of the overbought conditions.
💡 Conclusion: From a technical standpoint, I would like to continue buying. ✨💡
I have entered short positions for 6 stocks at the recent resistance high, with 2 stocks stopped out with a loss, while 4 stocks are currently in profit.
So why short altcoins when BTC has a positive technical outlook? This decision is based on factors outside of technical analysis.
① Until the direction of BTC is clearly determined, I consider altcoins to be in a wide range. Until one of the upper or lower channels in the image above is clearly breached, I see them being in a range 📈 So, I observed the growth stopping at the upper limit of each stock's range and reflexively placed short positions 💰
② With the rise in bond yields, considering the importance of yields to my trading strategy, I am reluctant to enter long positions with rising interest rates in mind...
The possibility of an upward revision of the SEP is the strongest 💦 CPI has stopped falling since September, and the battle against inflation has reached a difficult stage.![]()
With strong employment and the smooth progress in fighting inflation since September, there could be an upward revision. In other words, it indicates a slowdown in rate cuts 💦 By the way, as I mentioned before, I am not particularly concerned about whether there will be a rate cut this time. Probably, the market is reacting to the expectation of a rate cut, so even if there is a rate cut, it may just be a slight increase... I don't want to think about it, but if there is no rate cut, it's easy to guess.![]()
I do think there will be a rate cut though.![]()
Rather than focusing on that, I think you can see the trend of the year-end rally by observing how bond investors react to SEP. So, instead of making sudden moves now, I believe it is best to wait and see how bond investors move after confirming SEP, and then act based on the movement of bond yields. Well, that's always the case with SEP updates, haha. 💡
For now, I often don't understand things due to my lack of skills and study.
I also don't know how things will move in President Trump's inauguration speech.![]()
I also don't know how things will move in the year-end rebalancing.![]()
So, I don't know what Chairman Powell will talk about at the FOMC and how the market will react.![]()
Therefore, I want to confirm the facts and increase my understanding a little to face the market on a cold morning like this. That's all!
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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StreetLife : I think there will be an upward deviation in financial estimates due to the rush demand before the start of the tariff, so even a slight deviation should not affect the future interest rate cuts. Maybe...
J_M_RIN : I am aware that there can be significant movements from the Fundamentals Outlook to before the FOMC, but is it really so?![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
It is possible that heavy materials may have become lighter due to exceeding the CPI.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
普通のエビ OP StreetLife : It would be good if...![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
. Well, even if it drops, I only see it as a buying opportunity haha.
The previous time, Mr. Powell also mentioned in a press conference (at least as I interpret it) that they are unsure whether they will implement the policies promised and will not change their stance until they confirm the data. As there have been no tariffs or virtual currency-related bills proposed yet, I think the policy interest rate will still be determined by the already available CPI and unemployment rate. Just as you mentioned, even after the previous rate cut, interest rates were rising, so the stagnation in inflation control may already be factored in.
BTC is trending upwards now that it has just crossed the micro distance, so I also think it's promising, but it's still difficult to intervene until the FOMC meeting
普通のエビ OP J_M_RIN : Anticipation is definitely possible~ Especially with cryptocurrencies, as there are many gamblers, so it seems likely to move significantly before the FOMC! CPI has passed, but there may be mixed interpretations whether it has "safely passed." I see it quite in a grey area 🩶. Just touched the micro Support line, so BTC is worth watching! I'm paying attention to the part of the blue line in the image! It's a short-term perspective...lol
J_M_RIN 普通のエビ OP : Caution is important.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
I actually think it's quite unlikely that the rate cut will exceed 90% ahead of the FOMC next week, but the market seems to be expecting a strong US economy to be demonstrated even if inflation remains high. I don't know whether it will be realized or collapse somewhere, but I think it's still a long way off.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
普通のエビ OP J_M_RIN : So-called soft landing, right? My main scenario is there too~
I also do day trading, so I pay attention to the 4-hour chart, but it looks good to be bullish until next year!
J_M_RIN 普通のエビ OP : I also plan to make profits from bit-related in a two-stage manner by next year, and I have not been able to make any predictions beyond 2026 yet.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
普通のエビ OP J_M_RIN : Is it like selling at some point and then reinvesting on dips? Thank you for letting me refer to it.
I can't really predict how far related stocks can go, so I laugh.
J_M_RIN 普通のエビ OP : The deadline for tax returns is April 15th, so it is possible that there will be selling pressure for tax planning from mid-February to mid-March, so I will sell by mid-February. The second stage is to bottom out around July, if so, I will go pick up until November from there.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
By the way, I am generally cautious about Stocks in March, so I will keep my positions light, except for long-term ones, and plan to buy the dips heavily from April onwards.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
普通のエビ OP J_M_RIN : This year, there has been a trend change in Semiconductors and virtual Currency ETFs in the tax declaration of rice
Until I file my declaration, I am taking inspiration from the late last year to early this year rather than the 2020 bubble! +Is it related to the president?
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