"Nightmare" coming back! Will there be a second bottom at the Bank of Japan meeting? If the hawkish sentiment strengthens towards an interest rate hike within the year, it will have a significant impact on the market. [Bank of Japan Meeting Preview]
The Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting, which is the first since the July meeting that led to the "Black Monday of Reiwa," will be held on the 19th and 20th. The decision will be announced around noon on the 20th, followed by a press conference by Governor Kuroda in the afternoon.
The previous July meeting became an unforgettable event for stock investors.In addition to the second interest rate hike since March, Governor Kuroda mentioned the possibility of further rate hikes within the year in the press conference after the meeting.Giving a surprise to the marketprompting a sharp appreciation of the yen and contributing to the "Black Monday of Reiwa" on August 5th。
It is expected that there will be no policy changes at the September meeting, but利上げペースの加速に関する植田総裁らの発言次第ではドル円相場や株価に再び大きなインパクトを与え、二番底へと向かう可能性も否定できない。米国の利下げに関する思惑で足元の為替レートが円高に振れていることも前回の“悪夢”と重なる。株式投資家も固唾をのんで見守る緊迫の重要イベントになりそうだ。
The previous July meeting became an unforgettable event for stock investors.In addition to the second interest rate hike since March, Governor Kuroda mentioned the possibility of further rate hikes within the year in the press conference after the meeting.Giving a surprise to the marketprompting a sharp appreciation of the yen and contributing to the "Black Monday of Reiwa" on August 5th。
It is expected that there will be no policy changes at the September meeting, but利上げペースの加速に関する植田総裁らの発言次第ではドル円相場や株価に再び大きなインパクトを与え、二番底へと向かう可能性も否定できない。米国の利下げに関する思惑で足元の為替レートが円高に振れていることも前回の“悪夢”と重なる。株式投資家も固唾をのんで見守る緊迫の重要イベントになりそうだ。
前回の7月会合では、事前の市場関係者の多くの見立ては、6月会合で方針を示した長期国債の買い入れ減額に関するスケジュールを決定するだけだった。実際に、7月会合では長期国債の買い入れ減額について、四半期ごとに400 billion円程度ずつ減額し、26年1～3月に3 trillion円程度へと半減させる計画を決定した。
ところが、会合はこれで終わらなかった。市場の多くの思惑に反し、3月にマイナス金利を解除した政策金利を0～0.1％から0.25％へと引き上げることを決定。さらに植田総裁は会合後の記者会見で、「データが見通し通り、あるいは見通し対比で上振れる際には、（年内の）短期金利の一段の調整があり得る」「（0.5％を超えないという壁については）特に意識していない」などタカ派的な発言And it surprised the market.
In response to this, on the day of the press conferenceThe dollar-yen exchange rate, which had reached the 153 yen level temporarily on July 31, progressed to the 141 yen level three business days later on August 5.A drastic movement where the yen appreciated by nearly 12 yen prompted the unwinding of carry trades by overseas hedge funds, leading to the largest decline in the Nikkei average and the second largest decline in history, resulting in the 'Reiwa Black Monday'.'The Bank of Japan = a risk factor for the stock market' is becoming established?!。
One of the reasons that the stock market regained some stability was Vice Chairman Shinichi Uchida's speech on August 7th.There will be no interest rate hikes in the financial capital markets in an unexpectedly stable situation."We need to continue with monetary easing at the current level in the near future."According to Bloomberg on 7th, the yen depreciated and stock prices recovered, as the Bank of Japan weakened its hawkish stance.
However, after that,Positive comments on early interest rate hikes from Bank of Japan policy board members have continued, leading to a strong yen and weak stock prices.It can be said that the Bank of Japan's perception as a "risk factor" for the stock market is becoming established.
On September 11th, Bank of Japan policy board member Junko Nakagawa stated in a speech, "The current real interest rate is at an extremely low level.""From the perspective of achieving the sustainable and stable realization of the 2% price stability target, we will adjust the degree of monetary easing." (Nihon Keizai Shimbun, 11th)In response to these statements, the USD/JPY exchange rate fluctuated from around 142 yen per dollar to a temporary low of around 140.7 yen per dollar, reaching its highest level this year for the yen. On the 12th, Bank of Japan policy board member Naoki Tamura held a press conference.It is necessary to raise short-term interest rates to at least around 1% by the end of 2026, as mentioned in the Nikkei newspaper dated 12th. There is a growing view that the US will make a significant 0.5% rate cut in September, hence the temporary return to the 139 yen range for the first time in a year and 2 months on the 16th, prompting a sense of déjà vu from the previous meeting. There are two aspects overlapping with the previous meeting before this meeting.According to the Japan Economic Newspaper dated 12th, there is growing speculation that the USA will make a significant 0.5% interest rate cut in September.For the first time in 1 year and 2 months, the exchange rate temporarily reached the 139 yen level.It reached the largest decline.
There are two aspects that overlap with the previous meeting.There are two aspects that overlap with the previous meeting.。
One reason is that the appreciation of the yen due to the US financial policy is proceeding at present.One reason is that the appreciation of the yen due to the US financial policy is proceeding at present. Prior to the previous July meeting, the prospect of a turnaround to interest rate cuts in the USA in September had grown stronger and the yen had turned higher. The impact of the Bank of Japan's meeting during the yen shift led to the black Monday of the Reiwa era. This time, the speculation is growing that the US Federal Reserve will increase the interest rate cut to 0.5% instead of 0.25%, and the dollar has temporarily reached the 139 yen level for the first time in 1 year and 2 months.
Another reason is that there is involvement of "political factors".Another reason is that there is involvement of "political factors". Last time, there were doubts in the market that voices seeking an early additional interest rate hike for the correction of the yen depreciation were affecting the Bank of Japan's decision, arising from the Kishida administration's low approval rating. Taro Kono, Minister for Digital Transformation, and Toshimitsu Motegi, Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party, who made statements, are standing as candidates for the LDP presidential election on the 27th. In addition, there are candidates such as Shigeru Ishiba, former Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party, and Katsunobu Kato, former Chief Cabinet Secretary, who have made statements supporting interest rate hikes in the past for the correction of the yen depreciation. Each candidate is scheduled to give speeches and hold campaign events in various locations ahead of the presidential election, and there is a high likelihood that their statements will be covered by the media.The LDP presidential election on the 27thThe LDP presidential election on the 27thStatements about an interest rate hike.Of course,Who is the leading candidate for the next prime minister?、Is there a high possibility that a general election will be held early?Just being reported can also have an impact on the statements of Governor Ueda, and it is not certain.
On the other hand, there is a possibility that it will be a different factor of turmoil from last time, which is the policy decision of the US FRB. Last time, the BOJ meeting and FOMC were held on the same day, and the announcement of the policy decision was earlier by the BOJ, but this time it is reversed. The September FOMC will be held on the 17th and 18th, and will be announced in the early morning of the 19th Japan time. Although it is certain that the US will turn to a rate cut, there are different views on whether the cut will be 0.25% or 0.5%.The results of the FOMC are expected to have an impact on exchange rates and Japan's stock market.It may also affect the judgment of the Bank of Japan.
Economists' estimates are divided between December of this year and January of 2025 for the timing of the third rate hike.According to a Bloomberg survey of 53 economists conducted from the 6th to the 11th, 53% answered December, 19% answered January of 2025, and 15% answered October of this year for the timing of the next rate hike. There were no responses for September (Bloomberg, dated the 13th). According to a Nikkei QUICK news survey of Bank of Japan watchers conducted from the 9th to the 11th of September, 12 out of 27 respondents answered December, 11 answered January. There were also no responses for September (Nikkei newspaper, dated the 12th).。
For now, economists seem to believe, as Bank of Japan policy board members have been saying, that the economic and price situation is progressing "on track" and that gradual rate hikes will proceed as planned.
Economists are currently of the opinion that the economic and price situation is progressing "on track," as Bank of Japan policy board members have been saying, and that gradual rate hikes will proceed as planned.
In response to this,The market does not fully incorporate additional rate hikes this year.According to Bloomberg on the 17th,The swap market has only priced in a 32% probability of additional rate hikes this year, and if the Bank of Japan hints at rate hikes this year, there is a possibility that the exchange rate could reach 135 yen per dollar by the end of the year.Some economists believe that if the yen continues to strengthen, many listed companies, which have assumed an exchange rate in the 140 yen range for this fiscal year, have not priced in an exchange rate in the 130 yen range.
We should be aware that hawkish comments from Governor Ueda and others regarding additional rate hikes this year could have an impact on the market if the yen strengthens further.We should be aware that hawkish comments from Governor Ueda and others regarding additional rate hikes this year could have an impact on the market if the yen strengthens further.We should be aware that hawkish comments from Governor Ueda and others regarding additional rate hikes this year could have an impact on the market if the yen strengthens further.
So far,Regarding the economic and price situation, it can be said that the environment is in line with the Bank of Japan's outlook (Ontrak Inc 9.50% Cum Perp Pfd Stk Series A), making it easy to make hawkish statements.It can be said.
The Consumer Price Index for Tokyo's wards excluding fresh food (core CPI) announced by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on August 30th increased by 2.4% compared to the same month last year. With rice prices rising, the increase widened from 2.2% in July.
In addition, in the Monthly Labor Survey announced by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare on the 5th, real wages increased by 0.4% from the same month last year, marking a second consecutive month of growth. The revised GDP for April to June announced by the Cabinet Office on the 9th also shows a positive trend with a 2.9% increase on an annualized basis.
However, the situation regarding personal consumption is still not considered recovered. According to the budget survey for July released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on the 6th, although real consumption expenditure (households of 2 or more persons) turned positive for the first time in three months, the increase compared to the same month last year remains at 0.1%.
- moomoo News Mark
Source: Bank of Japan HP, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications HP, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare HP, The Nikkei, Bloomberg, NHK
Source: Bank of Japan HP, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications HP, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare HP, The Nikkei, Bloomberg, NHK
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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NAOKI1116 : A rapid appreciation of the yen will cause major disruptions to the Japanese economy. Do you know how many trillion yen the market capitalization of Japanese companies jumped by after the last rate hike? Ueda-kun, Uchida-kun.
exera : I totally agree with that. If it were a gradual appreciation of the yen, it would be understandable, but this time it's too hasty. It will decrease Japan's international competitiveness and weaken Japanese companies. If salaries decline and the economy doesn't improve, it's doubtful whether they are really putting the interests of the nation and domestic companies first.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
181370556 exera : Regardless of what the people think, the role of the Bank of Japan is to ensure price stability and financial system stability. It is true that they failed to fulfill this role last time and simply had a poor approach.
182143940 : We need to be careful about raising interest rates, right?
Oh, Mr. Ueda!
TOHOHO : I want you to quit Zeta.
日々勉強 : The Hindenburg Omen has been triggered three times this month...
182493113 : I hope Ueda doesn't overdo it.
The future of the Japanese economy is at stake.
183230756 : Many ordinary people are being brainwashed into thinking that high prices are the main cause of the weakening yen. The real cause is inflation overseas.
There are also many economically illiterate members of parliament, which is why many people in Japan mistakenly believe that a weak yen is a negative thing.
Because of these kinds of politicians, Japan has been in deflation for 30 years but has implemented inflationary policies.
I hope that people who understand the concept of neighboring poverty can steer the economy.
183230756 TOHOHO : Agree
fire希望 : I'm happy with the current market, but I'm thinking that Ueda will probably pour cold water on it again
I hope that today, named tomorrow, will not pour cold water.