Is the AI rally back? Micron (MU) surged 15% due to strong demand! Which AI semiconductor stocks have great upside potential?
Triggered by Micron's earnings, there is a growing momentum for the resumption of the AI rally.。
$Micron Technology (MU.US)$ Consideration has begun for a collaboration with moomoo.The demand for AI semiconductor memory is strong, with a bullish performance outlook.and surged 15% on September 26.Semiconductor stocks also rose, with the SOX index up 3.5% on the 26th.While the AI semiconductor champion, Nvidia, saw a slight increase, its stock price broke through the resistance line for the first time since mid-June. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Consideration has begun for a collaboration with moomoo.remained relatively flatsince mid-June,reaching a new high.した。
This time,Check Micron's earnings reportAbove that, identify semiconductor stocks with significant upside potential from AI supply chain companiesIdentified semiconductor stocks with significant upside potential after checking from the AI supply chain company. Not as well-known as NVIDIA or Micron, also check niche top stocks.Although not as well-known as NVIDIA or Micron, also check niche top stocks.
Sparked by Micron's strong earnings report, on September 26, Micron's stock price surged, and not only that, the SOX index (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index) also rose, reversing the S&P500 index in year-to-date performance.
AI半導体王者のエヌビディアは9月26日に0.4％の上昇にとどまったが、株価は6月中旬からの上値抵抗線を初めて突破した。25日のマイクロンの決算発表では、AI半導体に使用する広帯域メモリー「HBM」の需要は好調だと示された。マイクロンは今年2月にエヌビディアのAI半導体向けに「HBM 3E」の量産を開始した。
●要約
マイクロンはスマートフォンやパソコン（PC）、自動車に使用されるDRAMから、AIデーターセンター向けの高性能HBMまで幅広い半導体メモリーを生産する。これまでHBM市場では世界首位のSKハイニックスに後れを取っていたが、今年から急速に追い上げを図っている。2月にエヌビディアのAI半導体「H200」GPUに搭載する「HBM3E」の量産を開始した。
9月25日の決算発表では、HBMが同社にとって新たな収益源と成長のエンジンになっており、スマートフォンやPCの市況低迷による影響を相殺していることが明らかになった。HBMは2024年と2025年分がほぼ完売されており、業績への貢献度は一段と高まる見通しとなった。
●2024年度4Q（6-8月期）実績：予想上振れ
◇売上高：7.75 billionドル、前年同期比で93％増、市場予想は7.66 billionドル
◇売上高：7.75 billionドル、前年同期比で93％増、市場予想は7.66 billionドル
Against the backdrop of strong AI demand, significant increases in sales of DRAM products for datacenters and HBM are leading to a substantial expansion in revenue.
◇Adjusted EPS (earnings per share): $1.18, a loss of $1.07 in the same period last year, market expectations are $1.12.
◇Adjusted EPS (earnings per share): $1.18, a loss of $1.07 in the same period last year, market expectations are $1.12.
Guidance for 1Q of fiscal year 2025 (September-November): Expected to significantly exceed estimates.
◇Revenue: $8.7 billion ± $0.02 billion, market expectation is $8.32 billion.
It is expected that quarterly revenue will reach an all-time high.
◇Adjusted EPS: $1.74 ± $0.08, with the market estimate at $1.52.
(Market estimates are based on Bloomberg's consensus).
◇Revenue: $8.7 billion ± $0.02 billion, market expectation is $8.32 billion.
It is expected that quarterly revenue will reach an all-time high.
◇Adjusted EPS: $1.74 ± $0.08, with the market estimate at $1.52.
(Market estimates are based on Bloomberg's consensus).
● Key comments from management
◇ Demand from data centers remains very strong. The growth of AI servers is expected to be strong this year and next year. The momentum of AI is expected to continue unquestionably towards 2025.
◇ The launch of HBM is going well, with improved yields. The proportion of HBM in shipments is increasing each quarter. It plans to start shipping "HBM3E 12-high" at the beginning of 2025 and increase the shipping ratio throughout 2025.
◇ Micron's "HBM3E 12-high 36GB" achieves 20% lower power consumption compared to competitors' "HBM3E 8-high 24GB" while providing 50% more DRAM capacity.
◇ There is more demand for HBM than supply, allowing for price increases and securing long-term guaranteed contracts. Many contracts related to HBM already have prices set for the calendar years 2024 and 2025 (implying nearly sold out for 2024 and 2025).
◇ They are confident in demonstrating leadership with the next-generation product "HBM 4".
From Micron's earnings, the demand for high-performance memory HBM, which is essential for AI data centers, continues to be strong. Management sees the momentum of AI undoubtedly continuing towards 2025. The benefits of the investment boom in AI data center are likely to continue into next year.
The "North American Data Center Trends (First Half of 2024)" report from CBRE, the world's largest commercial real estate services company, also supports this. According to the report, the scale of data centers "under construction" in North America has already exceeded the full year of 2023 in the first half of this year. "Many facilities being developed by hyperscalers are planned to start operating in the coming years, further driving AI demand," the report pointed out.
Micron is indeed one of the companies benefiting from the construction rush of AI data centers. In AI data centers, not only Nvidia's AI semiconductors, but also larger capacity and high-performance memory and storage are required. And, of course, many companies are involved not only in that, but also in network equipment, electrical solutions, data communication transceivers, optical devices, and more.
Many "niche top stocks" exist in these fields, and the benefits of the data center construction rush are significant. For example, a network equipment manufacturer, $Arista Networks (ANET.US)$ Provides high-performance electrical solutions based on semiconductors $Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR.US)$ As the industry leader in optical transceivers for data communications. $Coherent (COHR.US)$ , a major player in optical fibers $Corning (GLW.US)$ etc.
Among the constituents of the SOX index, the deviation rate between the stock price and the average target stock price of companies involved in AI and datacenter is as follows.
(※ Arista Networks (ANET) is not a constituent stock of the SOX Index)
Based on the deviation from analysts' average target stock prices following the future performance outlook, the company that recently announced good earnings reports with the highest upside potential is $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ Micron's upside potential is the greatest. In the case of Micron, the expected PE ratio is about 12 times, significantly lower than the SOX index's 37 times.
Next, the semiconductor manufacturing equipment maker with significant upside potential is $Lam Research (LRCX.US)$ the AI semiconductor leader $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ and the measurement and inspection tool maker for the semiconductor industry $Onto Innovation (ONTO.US)$ The world's largest foundry that handles AI semiconductor commissioned products $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ Semiconductor manufacturing measures company $Applied Materials (AMAT.US)$ Custom AI semiconductor manufacturer for Meta Platforms and Alphabet $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$ Leading optical fiber company that shipped optical connection products for AI generation this year, alongside $Corning (GLW.US)$ However, it is parallel to
However, the semiconductor-based high-performance electrical utilities solution continues to perform well. $Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR.US)$ and network equipment manufacturers $Arista Networks (ANET.US)$ As the industry leader in optical transceivers for data communications. $Coherent (COHR.US)$ The stock price of is above the average target stock price. The semiconductor design giant $Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$ is also trading above the average target stock price.
Benefiting from the AI boom, stock prices have been strong, with some stocks continuing to perform well, while others have shown investment potential after adjustments in the latter half of the year. If the AI rally resumes, stocks with relatively large upside potential are likely to attract attention.
The recovery of AI-related stocks at present is supported not only by Micron's strong earnings but also by expectations for a soft landing due to continued interest rate cuts. For the AI rally to make a full comeback, the current Goldilocks situation needs to continue. Therefore, it is important to pay attention to the pace of US rate cuts and economic trends. If concerns about a hard landing intensify, it may be necessary to reassess investment strategies (*). On the other hand, considering the construction rush of AI data centers and the solid demand indicated by semiconductor companies' earnings, it can be said that AI semiconductors offer investment potential in the medium to long term.
（※「IT bubble and since Lehman, the "initial 0.5% interest rate cut"! Can it have a soft landing? Promising investment opportunities?refer to (*)
Market analyst Julie, created on September 27, 24
Source: Company documents and Bloomberg, compiled by moomoo Securities
Market analyst Julie, created on September 27, 24
Source: Company documents and Bloomberg, compiled by moomoo Securities
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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りゅういちAI : I am confident, I will buy MU.