Has the congratulatory market due to the rate cut come to an end? The decline in the yield of 10-year bonds suggests a rise in TMF!
Technical analysis (Rating: 2.8/5)
・Currently in a downtrend, transitioning to a head and shoulders formation. The recent target is being obstructed by the resistance at the 'shoulder part (around 60)' of the head and shoulders. Although there is some upward movement, caution is still needed as if rejected at the shoulder part, the head and shoulders pattern would be completed.
- Currently being tested for breakthroughs in the downtrend factors of expectation of a soft landing to concerns about a hard landing and the negative impression of rate cut width. Regarding the former two points, it seems more promising compared to last week as the US 10-year bond yield has started to decline.
・There is great potential for a short-term trend reversal, but there are no indications of transitioning to a downtrend reversal in the medium term.
===================================================
Chart pattern (Rating: 2/5)
・Transitioning from a decline to a reversal around 64, forming a head and shoulders pattern. The recent target is hindered by the resistance at the 'shoulder part (around 60)' of the head and shoulders.
Although it is currently rising, caution is still needed as the formation of a Head and Shoulders pattern would be complete if it bounces back at the shoulder part.
☆Dow Theory (Rating: 3/5)
- Due to the negative impression of the third rate cut width, there is a transition from an uptrend to a downtrend. Currently, it has fallen from the expectation of a soft landing to concerns about a hard landing, but the situation is somehow holding steady.
- Currently being tested for breakthroughs in the downtrend factors of expectation of a soft landing to concerns about a hard landing and the negative impression of rate cut width. Regarding the former two points, it seems more promising compared to last week as the US 10-year bond yield has started to decline.
☆Moving Average x Volume Moving Average (Rating: 2.25/5)
- Moving Averages: A death cross occurred with the 5/21-day moving averages. However, the candlestick chart has returned above the 5-day moving average line. (2/5)
- Volume Moving Averages: There is a consolidation phase in the short-term and medium-term moving averages. However, the volume has ended on a buying note. (2.5)
Is the momentum downward, but has it held up?
☆Ichimoku Cloud × DMI (Rating: 4.25/5)
- Ichimoku Cloud: Moving towards a positive direction. The cloud is thickening, and no sign of reversal is seen. (4.5/5)
- DMI: In a state where PDI・ADX is decreasing and MDI is increasing, showing an upward trend with PDI・ADX (4/5)
《Smart Futubull, Not Afraid of Stock Market Manipulation》There is a significant change in the short-term trend, but no indication of a shift to a downtrend in the medium term.
☆ BOLL × RSI × MACD (Rating: 2.5/5)
- Bollinger Bands: Moving towards a support at -1σ. It seems too early to return to the mean. (2/5)
RSI: It has been around 45 in the latter half of the week, showing some slightly oversold levels. (3/5)
MACD: It is declining after the death cross of 9/18. However, it is currently somewhat stagnant and a golden cross is likely to occur in the near future. (2.5/5)
There is a hint of a reversal, although the momentum is leaning towards oversold levels.It seems likely to transition to an upward trend this week.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
