Will the Nikkei Average fall below 30,000 soon? Concerns are growing about the movements of foreign investors and the Jackson Hole meeting.

According to the investment trends announced by the Japan Exchange Group on the 24th, foreign investors sold 741.5 billion yen of physical stocks last week (14th-18th). This is the first time in 8 weeks that foreign investors have been selling, and caution is spreading. Market insiders who strongly indicate that the Nikkei Average stock price will fall below 30,000 soon can be seen from technical indicators.

In a report on the 22nd, Shoichi Ide, Chief Equity Strategist at Nissay Research Institute, points out that he expects the Nikkei Average to fall below 30,000 soon, considering the weakening of foreign investors' buying momentum since late June and the risk of the 'AI bubble' bursting in the United States.

Shoichi Ide also calls for caution regarding the speech by Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, at tonight's (25th) Jackson Hole meeting. At last year's Jackson Hole meeting, under the hawkish stance of Powell, US stocks fell nearly 15% until they hit a low in October. If market expectations for interest rate policy go against Powell's intentions this time, it is emphasized that the decline in US stocks, which are more expensive than at that time, could exceed 15%.

Katsuhiko Nakamura, Market Strategist at Mizuho Securities, also predicts that the Nikkei Average may fall below 300,000 yen in the next three months. He focuses on the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX), which is more resilient than the Nikkei Average, and if it falls below 2,221 points and completes a trajectory called a 'double top', it is expected to provide momentum for selling Japanese stocks.

In the Nikkei Average, the short-term 5-week moving average has already crossed below the 13-week moving average, which is called a 'mini dead cross'. Eiji Kinouchi, Chief Technical Analyst at Daiwa Securities, has also noted that a chart similar to the signals seen before historical major market crashes, such as the 'inverted cup with a handle', is appearing in addition to this dead cross.

Masayuki Doida, Senior Market Analyst at Rakuten Securities Economic Research Institute, also warns of a further decline. In an interview with Bloomberg, he mentioned that if the Nikkei Average cannot surpass the 13-week moving average, the 13-week moving average could become a resistance level, accelerating the downward movement.

On the 25th, the Tokyo stock market experienced a significant drop in the Nikkei average, with a decrease of 662 yen (2.1% decrease) compared to the previous day, canceling out the rise of high-tech stocks from the previous day following good earnings from U.S. semiconductor company Nvidia, as the market anticipated the Jackson Hole meeting in the evening. On the other hand, the correlation between the TOPIX index and high-tech stocks was low, resulting in a modest decline of 0.9%.