没有咖啡的吃茶店 wrote a post · Dec 12, 2024 17:32

Is a bull market that comes once in a few decades on the way? Is it over like this? 🔥?

Yesterday, the Hong Kong stock market showed weakness, with the three major Hong Kong stock indexes opening high and falling, Hang Seng Index ( $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ ) down 0.77% to close at 20,155.05 points, Hang Seng TECH Index ( $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ ) declined even more, dropping by 1.31% to 4,531.58 points.

On the market, stocks in the technology sector generally declined, JD-SW ( $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ ) fell by 2.80%, MEITUAN-W ( $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ ) fell by 2.79%, XIAOMI-W ( $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ $ fell by 1.62%, Alibaba-W (00020.HK) fell by 1.25%, moomoo ( $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ $ fell by 1.17%, NTES-S ( $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ $ fell by 0.93%, Alibaba-W ( $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ $ fell by 0.46%, TENCENT ( $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ MEITUAN-W fell by 0.34%, while Bilibili-W ( $BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ fell by 5.19%;

On the news front, the meeting of the Central Political Bureau on December 9 proposed,"To vigorously boost consumer spending, improve investment efficiency, and comprehensively expand domestic demand."In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, the enthusiasm for ice and snow tours, winter trips, and other activities continues. Many popular tourist cities are issuing cultural and tourism consumption vouchers. Sichuan will introduce a 0.15 billion yuan cultural and tourism gift package, including 95 million yuan worth of cultural and tourism consumption vouchers, which are expected to boost various consumption expenditures.

Overall, the market did not experience a downturn after hitting 10.8. This is because the fundamental expectations have indeed changed. The policy emphasizes promoting consumption vigorously and comprehensively developing domestic demand. There have been very positive changes in expectations, and these changes are real and will not disappear due to a few days of opening high and closing low.

Therefore, at least in terms of domestic demand-related directions, I tend to believe it will continue to fluctuate upward. The fact that the gap was filled yesterday indicates that the sentiment is weaker than I thought, and the rise may be slower. However, the probability of an upward trend in fluctuation remains high. For domestic demand assets, it is more of a preview than an end.

Although the Hang Seng Index opened high and closed lower yesterday, which was indeed a bit disappointing, fortunately it still held at the top of the Bollinger Bands, and the upward trend was not broken. In any case,Now is the time of "policy market", and it cannot be ruled out that the government may have some news to stimulate the stock market again.Everyone should pay close attention to the three key positions of the Bollinger Bands:

Is a bull market that comes once in a few decades on the way? Is it over like this? 🔥?

Breaking through the top of the Bollinger Bands at 20306 - $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ breaking upwards.
Pulling back to the middle axis of the Bollinger Bands at 19634 - $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ pulling back and stabilizing.
Falling below the bottom of the Bollinger Bands at 18962 - $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ changing direction downwards.