Is the US inflation index a reassuring factor for the Fed, which focuses on the labor market? - CPI to be announced on the 10th

October 6, 2024 16:52 JST
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In the US, the likelihood that inflation slowed at the end of the third quarter (July-September) is high, which could be reassuring for the Federal Reserve (Fed), which is shifting its focus to the labor market.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to announce that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, released on the 10th, is expected to rise by 0.1% from the previous month, the smallest increase in three months. It is expected to rise by 2.3% compared to the same month last year, showing a slowdown for the sixth consecutive month and is forecast to be the slowest increase since early 2021.

The core index, excluding volatile food and energy, is expected to rise by 0.2% from the previous month and by 3.2% from the same month last year.

In the September US employment statistics released on the 4th, the growth of non-agricultural employment exceeded market expectations. If inflation continues to slow down slightly, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may choose a relatively small rate cut at the next meeting scheduled for November 6th and 7th.