Is the sale of NVIDIA's shares a sign that US tech stocks have plateaued? Will US high-tech stocks continue to lead in '24
Recently, the S&P 500 has risen to a year-to-date high,Stock buybacks by US companies and insiders are becoming more activeIt has done so, but it has led the S&P 500Major US tech companies sell their holdings to determine profitsDoing it. Will this be a sign that large US tech stocks will plateau?
According to the research firm Washington Services, business owners and executivesProceed with stock buybacks in NovemberIt's done,The ratio of buyers to sellers reached a high level for the first time in 6 monthsIt's there. Over the past month, Goldman Sachs has seen a “significant increase” in stock buybacks by corporate customers. The Bank of America (BofA) stock buyback platform is similar, according to the company's past dataRecord the week with the most ordersI did. US companies that had refrained from buying back shares at the beginning of this year have now begun implementing share buybacks. According to BofA data, share buybacks by fellow bank customersIt has been above the seasonal level for 3 consecutive weeksThere was also a week where a record high of 4.8 billion dollars was recorded.
On the other hand, NVIDIA, Meta, etc.Large US tech companies that have skyrocketed this year have sold their shares。
$Meta Platforms(META.US$Mr. Zuckerberg, the founder and CEO of, has sold company shares at a high frequency over the past month. In November about682,000 shares (equivalent to approximately $185 million)I sold it. His group has sold meta shares since November '21.
It is the biggest beneficiary of the AI boom $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$Executives and directors of last month aboutCompany stock worth 180 million dollars is approximately 370,000 sharesDocuments showing sale or intention to sell were submitted. If all of that were carried out, the monthly sale amount would be at leastThe biggest in the past 6 yearsIt becomes. After surging more than 3 times this year, NVIDIA's growth is currently sluggish. After such a sharp rise in stock prices, it is understandable that management would like to determine profits. However,They didn't buy when the stock price fell。 Probably,They probably thought it would be difficult for stock prices to reproduce past surges。 According to the data, NVIDIA insiders have hardly bought company shares since 2020.
At the rate of increase since the beginning of the year, as of the end of November, the meta is about172%It soared, and among the 7 major US high-tech companies,The rate of increase second only to NVIDIA's sharp rise of 212%It is.
On the other hand, $Apple(AAPL.US$Chris Condor, the chief accounting officer of, also said last weekClose to 1 million dollarsApple shares were sold and announced on Form 144.
The fact that a handful of large US high-tech stocks led the rise in US stocks was a major characteristic of US stocks this year. According to the “2024 US Stock Market Outlook” recently announced by Goldman Sachs, what is the ratio of 7 large US high-tech companies to the total market value of the S&P 500 stock price indexThis is the first time it has grown this big (29%)。
However, last month, observations that the Fed would move towards monetary easing spread, and US stocks rose rapidly,Doubts about the sustainability of stock prices are growing。 While the top prices of the seven US high-tech companies are getting heavier, the cycle for economy-sensitive stocks, including small and medium-sized stocks, is progressing. Also, a dash continued among stock speculators into suspicious corners involving “meme stocks,” crypto assets (virtual currencies), and unprofitable tech company stocks. At your feet,Tech company stocks that are not making profits are outperforming large US tech stocks。
Goldman Sachs is based on high growth rates, high profit margins and a strong balance sheet7 large US high-tech companies will lead 493 other companies in the S&P 500 index next yearIt is expected, but what is the return gap between the 7 large US high-tech stock companies and other companiesNot as big as this yearI anticipate that.
“In addition to heightened growth expectations, the ownership ratio of hedge funds to high-tech stocks is higher than usual, and investors' enthusiasm for AI is gradually cooling down, so the risk-return ratio of large tech stocks is not particularly attractive.”
There is a possibility that generative AI will boost corporate profit growth more than expected, but in most cases,AI's impact on profitability next year is limitedIt is expected. According to data compiled by Goldman Sachs, the percentage that S&P 500 companies mentioned AI at financial results briefings for the 3rd quarter of 2023 was in the previous quarterDecreased from 34.5% to 29.5%I did it.
Even so, David Kostin has not lost his optimistic view. According to Goldman Sachs's standard forecast, large tech stocks will continue to outperform the remaining S&P 500 stocks in 2024. He saidThe reason for this increase in salesThat's the explanation. From 2023 to 2025, the average annual growth rate of sales of the top 7 US high-tech companies11%On the other hand, what are the other constituent stocks3%It is expected that it will stay at this time. Also, the net profit margins of the top 7 high-tech companies are other2 timesIt is,Will this difference continue until 2025Expected.
Meanwhile, according to a report recently released by Wall Street investment company Wedbush, even after this year's “dramatic backlash,”US high-tech as a whole will rise at least 20% in 2024It is expected to do so. The agencyThe application scene of artificial intelligence (AI) is expanding, next yearSpending on artificial intelligence and cloud computing has increased significantlyThen, the global IT industryEmbarking on a rich growth trajectoryExpected.
“Many Wall Street analysts are still underestimating the scale of AI spending over the next 10 years, and we expect that scale to reach $1 trillion. This was an era of great prosperity for AI chips and AI applications, especially the software application industry, and leading high-tech companies $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$with $Microsoft(MSFT.US$It will lead this historic trend.”
“According to recent survey data, the fundamental outlook for growing tech companies is extremely sound. Corporate IT budgets are expected to grow moderately until 2024, but with the rapid increase in use cases for companies and individuals, we expect that the spending scale of companies utilizing cloud and AI will grow 20 to 25% next year.”
Wedbush's analysts include Amazon's AWS, Google Cloud Platform, etc.Cloud services departments will be the first to benefit from AIIt was pointed out that it was one of the business divisions.
This article uses automatic translation for some of its parts
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, Goldman Sachs, BofA, Wedbush
ー MooMoo News Sherry
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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181338057犬心久美子 : Tech stocks must drive America
economy
️ to the world 
️ Magnificent Seven grew will come to life again![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
Which department will do it? It certainly feels like there will be some phases, but the prospects are immeasurable.
Half a century ago, the middle class was responsible for mid-tier enterprises
Detroit, for example, produces American cars
They have supported the American economy with pride and confidence in manual labor that is intense by human hands.
It was swallowed up by the trend of the times, and citizens were replaced with old and new, and eventually they went from typewriters to computers
Now it's evolved and shifted to AI, and tech companies
It has led to the next generation. And everything
From America
Of course, Europe has evolved too, and the Higgs run in a single circle through Europe? The study on the speed of particle light is also amazing. Develop seeds that stand out if you plant them in soil even after hundreds of years and thousands of years have passed, and absolutely block radiation in Scandinavia
Thick concrete shelters to protect people, etc. America also achieved great feats in space development after Russia. The story skipped until the day after tomorrow
After all, the roots of the big big tree that
I can't stop believing
181301798 : If employees of high-tech companies continue to sell company shares, will corporate performance and evaluations plateau
I think there are high technical capabilities and fields that only high-tech companies can do in the coming era