Is there room for the new energy sector in the second half?
Today's selectionnew energyLet's talk about this section with everyone. After all, these are all things that everyone knows, but some novice Xiaobai just entered the market. They actually don't know how the stock price performance was during the development of new energy in previous years, and even less aware of whether the market will continue to have room in the future. Also, some friends in Hong Kong may not be that careful about the current situation of new energy vehicles in mainland China, so let's just talk about some of my opinions
When it comes to new energy, the two giants are undoubtedly Tesla ( $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ ) and BYD shares ( $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ ). With its forward-looking technology and excellent brand influence, Tesla has taken the lead in the field of new energy; while BYD, as a leader in new energy vehicles, now has an astonishing monthly sales volume, with tens of thousands of units sold.
Going back in time, the stock prices of Tesla and BYD have also soared, becoming a favorite in the hearts of many investors. After that, three new-power car companies, NIO, Xiaopeng, and Ideal, called “Wei Xiaoli” for short, and we also dubbed “3 idiots,” began to rise to prominence. Why is it called “3 idiots”? In fact, this is our ridicule of the phenomenon that their stock prices could soar regardless of their performance at the time. They only delivered a few thousand units, but their stock prices could soar by tens of millions, once surpassing the stock prices of oil truck companies that had been selling for decades.
Therefore, in the beginning, the stock market had technical aspects and market expectations, including policy support. The target penetration rate was 30% +, the purchase tax was reduced, and the market environment was not bad. Everyone still had money. Naturally, valuations were not low. Including high-ranking financing and allotments, investors all paid for it, up from the brink of bankruptcy at the time $NIO Inc (NIO.US)$ Rescued by the Hefei government, it doubled by a factor of N, and then to Xiaopeng $XPeng (XPEV.US)$ All kinds of big sales, and the ideal $Li Auto (LI.US) $, which was being boosted, started the L7 color TV sofa refrigerator. It once dominated the market for half a year. The 3 idiots basically took turns, and everyone went up quite a bit, including every time the 3 new models were released, all of which became the focus of various media.
However, as the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has become higher and higher in the past two years, the downgrade news has become more and more obvious. Although delivery data is getting higher and higher, the stock prices of these car companies are getting lower and lower. This is also a characteristic of the stock market. They speculate on expectations, draw big cakes and tell stories, and there is no technical support later. As soon as the position is broken, the target price for valuation will drop completely different.
So before I wrote this article, I was worried about whether there wasn't much room for ETFs. After all, the new force now isn't just Wei Xiaoli. Even though Xiaopeng recently brought back some space with MONA3 but still got a lot of noise overall. Ideal Nio's voice is getting quieter and quieter. Major rivals include Huawei to enjoy high-end intelligent driving and user experience, and others specialize in cost performance $LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK)$ , Nana, Deep Blue, etc., Zero Run has also been steadily taking 2nd place among the new forces in the past few months. Before Xiaopeng came out with MONA3, it was all outside of the top 10.In an environment with various stack configurations, there are multiple links at the front fork and back, chip 8295, 0 gravity seat, color TV refrigerator, and large sofa at a roll price of only 0.15 million, what path is there??Many of the prices have already been fixed. Even if they continue to fight the price war and roll them all together, they will only letCorporate gross profit is getting lowerOf course, it benefits riders and stimulates consumption. After all, cars can be sold for several trillion dollars a year, and the GDP target can be achieved.But we are shareholders; if we want to invest, we need to invest if we can continue to make money/stock prices rise.
Faced with attacks from up and down, there are also new car companies that are constantly cutting prices and stealing the cake. Can the new forces that have already gone public work? Before I wrote this article, I was really afraid it wouldn't work, but I read it $Global X China Electric Vehicle and Battery ETF (02845.HK)$ I'm not that afraid of this ETF anymore.
why?? To put it another way of thinking, we all know that the most profitable ones in the gold rush are those that sell water, and this ETF happens to be a leading car company. It has advantages in all aspects. At the same time, it doesn't have any other weight in the face of price wars, such as Ning Wang, who makes batteries $Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750.SZ)$, 100 million weft lithium energy $Eve Energy Co.,Ltd. (300014.SZ)$, $Tianqi Lithium Corporation (002466.SZ)$ , and those made of glass $FUYAO GLASS (03606.HK)$ , make automated Huichuan technology $Shenzhen Inovance Technology (300124.SZ)$ , unlimited air conditioning for trains, Sanhua Intelligent Control for intelligent control of heating and cooling $Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (002050.SZ)$ This is also a car company that benefits from the second half of NEVs and even the entire road. Although they are driving smart cars more later, such as NOA now, only reached the L2 and L3 levels, TSLA released L4 or 5 at the end of '23.No, it wasn't until today until today that robotaxi hemp will be releasedSo there's still some fun in terms of time. At least it's better than the price of the roll, and I'm not in a hurry to get to the stage where smart driving, smart storage, and charging system software fees.
Therefore, if there is a real bull market in Hong Kong stocks in 2025, including A-shares that can rise (Hong Kong stocks have actually been converted to A-shares a long time ago, because Chinese securities have already accounted for 80% + of the market value and are tied together), I'm afraid to talk about a big bull market too soon.However, the path back to value is still not short; there is still room. Then, from an ETF perspective, choosing a new energy source would have an advantage over the 3 idiots. After all, while asking for a price, it also has to test the market's level of approval for new car models.For example, the previous ideal mega, the p7+ that was released yesterday, may have quite a bit of room for volatility in the short term, butFriends who buy ETFs are usually far-sighted and have a long cycle. They want certainty and stability.Although the content just analyzed isn't in-depth, the logic believes that Xiaobai can understand it. If you have the ability and conditions to go 5 times 10 times deeper, you can come by yourself. If you're just an outsider, want to simply choose an ETF, and want to understand the current environment in general, this alone is enough! Everyone is welcome to like, leave a comment and retweet.
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lucaspan : yes
先定1个小目标 OP lucaspan :
每天都在學習中 : Is there a war now... Will petroleum stocks rise in the short term?