ISM non-manufacturing business index deteriorates

Announced at 23:00 on 2024/7/3ISM Non-Manufacturing IndexResults for the previous month of 53.848.8It was.

It can be said that the US service industry is in recession by breaking 50, which is the turning point between the boom and recession.

After 2020/5/6 when it dropped drastically due to the effects of the coronavirus shockThe lowest numberIt is.

It became a material for interest rate cutsStock heightIt's a factor.

It was announced on 2024/7/2Number of JOLTS job offersThe result was 8.14 million compared to 7.919 million people in the previous month.

Because the boom in the labor market will recede the period of interest rate cutsStock depreciationIt's a factor.

It was announced on 2024/7/3 at 21:15Number of ADP employees (month-on-month)Results for 0.157 million people in the previous month150,000 peopleIt was.

This is the third consecutive month of decline.

Number of JOLTS job offersOn the other hand, it was strongNumber of ADP employeesA weak number came out.

The reason why the number of employed people is declining even if the number of job offers is high is the sector where jobs are increasingbiasedIt's from there.

It was announced on 2024/7/3Number of new unemployment insurance claimsResults for 0.234 million cases the previous week0.238 million piecesIt was.　

The decline stopped for 2 consecutive weeks and rebounded.

The upward trend has been getting stronger since the beginning of May.

unemployedThe increase in interest rates became material for interest rate cutsStock heightIt's a factor.

It was announced at the same timeNumber of people who continue to receive unemployment insuranceResults for 1.832 million people the previous week1.858 million peopleIt was.

It has been rising for 4 consecutive weeks.

Until nowNumber of new unemployment insurance claimswithNumber of people who continue to receive unemployment insuranceThere were many discrepancies in their movements.

For example,Number of new unemployment insurance claimsOn the other hand, it has increased,Number of people who continue to receive unemployment insuranceThere was a downward trend.

There were a lot of situations like this, but come hereLinkageIt can be seen strongly.

The pace of increase in the number of unemployedIt can be said that it is accelerating.

The downward trend continuedcopper futuresThere has been a strong backlash since 6/28.

copper priceIt is strongly affected by the Chinese economy, but considering that Chinese stocks have not risenAICopper is being bought against the backdrop of strong sales of related companies.

If this rise in copper futures is dominated by buying due to concerns about inflation,unemployedBased on the upward trend, there is a risk that it will suddenly decline.

What is the rise in copper pricesStock heightIt's a factor.

There was a strong backlashUS 10-year bond yieldhas been on a downward trend since 7/2.

What is the decline in long-term interest ratesStock heightIt's a factor.

If you look at the US stock exchange rateNASDAQHas been rising for 3 consecutive daysNew high price updateI did it.

It was the driving force behind the marketNVDAIt has been developing softly due to a decline since 6/20.

AMZNHas risen since 6/20New high price updateWe did, but it's a development where the upper price is heavy.

There has been a sudden backlash since 6/26TSLAis boosting the market price.

Has been rising for 3 consecutive daysAAPLis also driving the market price.

It has been selling big since 6/18AVGOIt has been boosting the market price by rising for 4 consecutive days.

Strong upward trend continued from 6/4New high price updateIt continues to doMSFTIt has also been driving the market price by rising for 3 consecutive days.

MSFT (Microsoft)There is a very strong upward trend. thereinNVDA (NDIVIA)has lost momentumAMZN (Amazon)was rising and sluggishTSLA (Tesla)It is a development where the market price is boosted by a sudden rebound.

Has been rising tenaciously since March 7thGOOGL (alphabet)tooMSFT (Microsoft)Similarly, it supports the market price.