ISM non-manufacturing business index declined

Announced at 0:00 on 2024/3/6ISM Non-Manufacturing Business IndexIs the result52.6It was.

What is this indexBusiness ConfidenceAs you can see, below 50 is a recessionary trend, and above 50 is a booming trend.

This time it was above 50, but it was below the previous 53.4.

If you look at it from a macro perspective, the decline that began at the end of 2021 has come to an end,stoveWhat it has become is now.

What is the lower value

Announced on 2023/1/649.2

Announced on 2023/6/550.3

Announced on 2024/1/550.5

The lower price is gradually being rounded up.

Upward pressure is strong, and US service industry personnel are dealing with the economysanguineI can say that.

The main reason for the current decline in figuresEmployment IndexThis is a decrease. The pressure to raise wages that has continued until now is being mitigated (softened). The number of jobs is declining.

Overall, the majority of people in charge of companies respond to the economysanguineIt is.

It was announced on 2024/3/6Number of ADP employees (month-on-month)Is the result140,000 peopleIt was.

From the previous 111,000 peopleASCENSIONI did.

If you take a look at the breakdown of the data

Leisure and Hospitality:41,000 people

construction:28,000 people

Trade/Transportation/Public Utilities:24,000 people

These 3 industries are mainly doing well.

Of the 140,000 employed, 110,000Non-manufacturing and service sectorIt is.

Annual wages will increase by 5.1%. This is the smallest width since August 2021. Inflationary pressures are receding.

ThisInterest rate reduction factorsIt is.

stillThe US economy is doing wellThat's it. Average wages are outperforming inflation.

US 10-year bond yieldIt fell from the closing price of 4.331% on 2/22, and the current value is falling steadily to 4.111%. ThisStock price factorsIt is.

contraryCrude oil futures WTIcontinues to rise. 2023/12/12 from closing price of $68.61 to current price$80.41The price has gone up to

Since rising crude oil prices encourage higher costs, it is an unsettling factor for the economy,Stock depreciationIt is the cause of

Palladium futuresCompared to the previous day12.29% plusThere is a strong backlash.

Is palladium strongdownward trendIt's in. While gold, silver, and copper are moving in the high price range, palladium futures prices have dropped to the same level as around 2018/9.

When the price of palladium fallsInflation has subsidedIt is encouraging, but I believe that if a rebound increase starts after bottoming out, it will have an impact on stock prices.