It's a lie that prices go up or down because there are many single option positions!

Today, on 11/22 (Fri), Takebe-san from Okasan Securities was on Radio NIKKEI

"PUT36000 has a volume of 12,000 contracts loaded! Furthermore, PUT35000 has exceeded 9,000 contracts!"stated with a sense of superiority, mentioning that the market is currently declining, and it might continue to drop in the future.

For those involved in options trading"This is absurd." "Why are you talking like an amateur?"This is the discussion, and I will touch upon this point a little here.

Please start by looking here.
I usually check, so I was able to immediately X-post such stupid remarks.

As I wrote here, 12,000 sheets are in the major SQ major exercise price range.Very common levelIt is.
Rather, P35,000Has not even exceeded 0.01 million sheets yet.It is.

Although the impact of exercising one single option has diminished compared to the past due to the increase in stock price levels, it would not be strange to have around 15,000 contracts at a level 3,000 to 4,000 yen lower from the November SQ value of 39,901 yen, which is 8% to 10% lower.

There were YouTubers who raised concerns about a market crash as P33,000 and P32,000 exceeded one million contracts! However, this has been consistently over one million contracts for the past six months, including rollovers. Rather, from November 8 onwards, it seems to be stabilizing or decreasing before the near-term.

Furthermore, since the premium itself is low, simply looking at the number of contracts does not make sense.

As mentioned in X, it is important to focus on the trend after getting close to the expiration, in other words,You must follow the trend rather than getting caught up in individual points. 。

For the December expiration, as P36,000 and P35,000 continue to rise even at a high premium stage, it is without a doubt that market participants are looking at them with a downward perspective. However, the number of 12,000 contracts does not carry significant meaning, as it is neither high nor low.

What you should pay more attention to is The ratio of CALL and PUT options among overseas investors.It is.

In my daily videos, I watch this every day.
In December futures, PUT options have been 1.8 times more than CALL options from the start, and yesterday it widened further to 2.2 times. This is clearly an abnormal value.
Overseas investors overwhelmingly have more PUT options in the current month.

This is the combined graph of CALL and PUT positions of overseas investors, explained in the daily videos.
In December futures, PUT options have been dominant since 11/8, and have widened to 2.2 times this week. This is the most biased situation this year.

During the stock price increases in January-March and in October when the SQ value rose by 3,000 yen from ¥36,909 to ¥39,701, CALL options were more than 1.8 times stronger every time.

The PUT option with a ratio of up to 2.2 times in the December contract is a strong anomaly. That's why I explained that it will move below 39,901 yen and put in a PUT debit.
Already, the futures base has dropped by about 2,200 yen from the SQ value of 39,901 yen to 37,710 yen in the November contract.

I'm not sure if this will stop the decline or if we will see another drop, but the fact remains that it has already dropped by 2,200 yen.
Even with the start of this week, overseas traders are overwhelmingly trading PUT options, so I wonder if it won't stop at 38,000?

By studying a bit about options, you can see how superficial and vague Takebe's explanations are.

Takebe is a foreign exchange professional, so I think it would be better if he didn't talk about options due to his lack of knowledge. It just shows that even experts have limits. It's a shame because foreign exchange discussions are very informative.

The opinion of experts should be kept strictly within their own field of expertise, their specialty.

Just like not being infatuated with specific stocks, do not get infatuated with experts... do not believe everything.
In order to do that,you need to study a wide range of investments yourself, so that you can see through and understand, 'What is this person talking about?'That's right.