ひろ0723
commented on a stock · Dec 14 13:23
It's not that the dollar is strong, but rather that America is buying something in large quantities.
$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$ If tariffs and inflation concerns become more prominent in the coming years, it is almost certain that interest rate cuts will be put on hold at some point next year. Foreign exchange reserves of various countries still primarily consist of dollars, with purchases of US bonds also being led by other countries. Given the uncertain situation in Europe, the United States remains the top choice for stock investments. To lead with a trade surplus through high tariffs, export promotion is preferred over imports. It means that everything is settled in dollars. The era when interest rate differentials determined exchange rates has passed, and even as interest rate differentials narrow, investment money inevitably continues to flow to the United States, which holds high-tech sovereignty. In fact, the logic dictates that with the current interest rate difference, the exchange rate should be in the 120-yen range, but it has diverged by more than 30 yen. This is evidence that something in the United States is being bought. The Bank of Japan welcomes a weaker yen with interest rate hikes so it remains hesitant. If you're buying US stocks, you don't need to worry excessively about exchange rates even if there is a temporary shock from a rate hike.
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ひろ0723 OP : The truth is, I want to get away from $, but I can't do that right now.