Jackson Hole May be the Main Event...

However, something potentially more dnagerous this week, lurkis in the shadows For how long have I been beating up on the financial media for covering GDP over GDI or for reporting only the strongest labor market "guesstimates" and barely covering the BLS quarterly BED reports that have warned us that employment data had been grossly overstated since the start of 2023?

The media wanted no part of these less optimistic numbers that suggested the economy might not really be humming right along after all.

I hate being right on these matters all the time while economists with more impressive academic backgrounds stumble and bumble around. No, I don't. I actually love being more accurate than those clowns.

Such is life.

This Wednesday, at 10am ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has announced that they will be releasing a preliminary estimate for the upcoming annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey data for the period covering April 2023 to March 2024. It is anticipated by many that as many as, or maybe more than one million fewer jobs were actually created during that period than were reported in the monthly non-farm payrolls numbers.

Are we in the US already in, or are we close to recession? On Wednesday, you may find out more than you will on Friday. If so, then how far back do they backdate the onset of this economic contraction? Maybe I'll be wrong, and we'll find out the Establishment Survey numbers were correct all along? Or even close to correct. As an American, I have to root for that outcome. As a realist, I think that not too likely.