Japanese stocks are not rising at all...
Despite the progress of yen depreciation, only dark candlesticks have been appearing recently...
Things that could be considered as reasons are,
It is difficult to predict a rate hike.
If the yen depreciation further intensifies, there is a possibility of intervention.
・Potential risk of the ruling party splitting the majority in the House of Representatives election, becoming a political situation. Additionally, Prime Minister Ishiba's economic policies are too opaque in terms of finance and finance collectively (defense tax increase? Early normalization of monetary policy?). Furthermore, if the Constitutional Democratic Party significantly increases its seats, there is a possibility of discussing the nightmare policy of 25% financial income tax.
・Stocks that have been leading the market, especially large cap stocks, have already reached their year-to-date highs, and it is necessary to confirm the full-year outlook in the interim results.
・The impact of slowing economic growth in China and Europe, particularly the slowdown in consumption and capital investment, is uncertain.
・Risk aversion ahead of the U.S. presidential election.
After writing it down, it seems that there will be a big market after November. Considering next year's House of Councillors election under the Ishiba administration, it is unlikely that there will be talk of increasing the burden on the people recklessly.
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証券会社に勤めていました。
けど、トレーダーでも個人営業でもないので、株を短期で売買するのはまだまだ初心者です。
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ペイちゃん : It must be the Ishiba shock after all.
白ネコ : Isn't it because of poor supply and demand?
なかとみのかたまり : Well, as of January this year, the Bank of Japan has already come out saying, 'If we don't stop the policy of doing nothing and raise interest rates, we've reached our limit.' So unless we end up with an economically illiterate cabinet that says 'I don't really understand but we will continue to promote monetary easing!' after the election, the stock prices are likely to fall due to the shift towards a rate hike.
えいきちちゃん : I completely agree with your analysis on why Japanese stocks are not rising. On the other hand, I think the analysis that a major market rally will come after November is a bit simplistic.