Jobs data chill boosts rate cut bets, raises recession fears.[Premium Learn weekly review]
Market overview: Jobs data coming in colder than expected has stoked the flames for rate but hopes.
This week's employment data came in under the wire, signaling a further cooldown in the job market.
➤ On December 5th, the US JOLTs job openings dropped to 8.733 million in October after two months of climbing, way below the expected 9.3 million, and hitting a new low since March 2021.
➤ Come December 6th, the ADP employment data for November didn't hit its mark either, with only 103,000 jobs added against the forecasted 130,000, missing expectations for the fourth month straight. Plus, wage growth sank to a more than two-year low.
When job numbers dip more than folks think they will, especially with buzz about interest rate cuts, it gets people second-guessing a smooth economic landing. And tech and growth companies, they're always on their toes about economic shifts.
In the stock market, tech took a tumble the first three days this week. Heavy hitters like Nvidia and Microsoft saw their shares dip, putting the brakes on the broader market's growth.
Heads up for December 8th, Friday—that's when the Fed's favorite, the non-farm payroll numbers, drop. The street's betting on the US jobless rate holding steady at 3.9% for November, with a slight step up in new jobs from 150,000 in October to 175,000. If those numbers play out, they probably won't jolt next week's Fed meeting or the chatter about interest rate drops next year.
Week's buzz: "AI fever" powerfully reverses the stock market's slump
After a dip for the first three days this week, Thursday brought two big headlines in the tech world that swung the momentum back.
➤ Google $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$dropped its most powerful model yet, Gemini, throwing down the gauntlet at OpenAI's GPT-4! Google is hyping up Gemini's top-notch performance and versatility compared to the rest. Okay, their ad business was killing it in Q3, but with cloudy skies over their cloud biz, folks started side-eyeing their AI edge. Gemini looks like their clap back at all that market side-eye.
➤ AMD's $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$got these new MI300 series AI chips, claiming to thrash Nvidia's old-school H100 by 60%—that's the word on the street, at least. People are betting these bad boys could snatch Nvidia's AI chip crown. AMD's stock? Zoomed up nearly 10% on Thursday.
Fresh news always pumps some juice into the market scene, but only time will tell if the hype's got legs or if it's just all talk. As for the latest scoop on Gemini, some users are saying, "Eh, not that great," so there's that.
Google or AMD, though, their price tags look pretty grounded, especially next to the other players—no crazy markups. But this round's like turning up the heat on Nasdaq's already cooking valuations. We're still looking at a pressure cooker with those numbers.
Week's Premium Learn: Trading tutorials—Trend lines
The concept of a trend is perhaps the most important aspect of technical analysis. Many tools used by technical traders, such as price patterns, support and resistance, and moving averages, focus on the purpose of helping identify market trends.
How to use trend lines to trade. Here are three methods that are widely used by traders
1. Trend line bounce. The goal of trend line bounce is to trade with the trend that is perhaps supported by the major trend line.
2. Trend line break. The trend line break can be considered a countertrend line trading strategy because it might signal a possible price reversal.
3. Trend line retest. A trend line retest occurs when the price breaks a trend line and then trades back into the line before moving in the direction of the new trend.
Week's Premium Learn: opportunity Mining—Santa Claus Rally
During Christmas time, people eagerly anticipate the arrival of Santa Claus and the gifts he brings.
Similarly, in the capital market, there is a similar excitement known as the Santa Claus rally - where the stock market tends to increase during the holiday season.
1. The Santa Claus rally refers to the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of the following year, during which the US stock market usually experiences a wave of gains.
2. Common reasons for the Santa Claus rally include the absence of institutional investors, year-end tax strategies, the January effect, and additional available funds.
3. Over the past seven years, Almanac Trader reports a consistent occurrence of the Santa Claus rally in the US stock market.
4. There is no guarantee that the Santa Claus rally will occur, so if investors or traders wish to participate in it, they should develop an effective trading plan and risk management strategy.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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Joy Boy or Bringer : thank you, Cici.
Invest With Cici OP : Feel free leave a comment here to share your takeaways from this week.