efficentupup wrote a post · Nov 21, 2023 17:13

JP Morgan Expects Brent Crude to Average $83 in 2024

$JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ JP Morgan has forecast an average price for Brent crude of $83 per barrel next year amid a stable market.

- down in 2025, averaging $75 per barrel
- for this year, 2023 sees average $81
- in 2023 demand is on track to grow by 1.9 million barrels a day, with non-OPEC supply is expected to surpass this with a 2.2m b/d expansion, primarily driven by a 1.5m b/d increase in U.S. output
- sees global sustained demand of 1.6 million barrels a day in 2024
supported by robust emerging-market economies, a resilient U.S., and a weak-but-stable Europe
- supply growth in 2024 from non-OPEC producers is seen at 1.7m b/d, more than matching gains in demand
JPM says that to keep the oil market balanced, OPEC+ alliance would need to continue constraining production
- Global oil demand growth could decelerate to 1 million barrels a day in 2025, with non-OPEC+ supply potentially surging and the global market likely shifting into a surplus
could lead to OPEC+ members deepening current cuts by a million barrels per day
- expects Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend their voluntary production/export cuts through Q1 2024

West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude Oil were up $2/barrel on Monday ahead of the OPEC+ meeting this weekend, where the cartel is anticipated to add output cuts.

At the same time, the United States is increasing output, creating a hazy medium-term supply forecast in the face of dropping demand into 2024...

What is your opinion on JPMorgan's forecast that the oil prices will stabilize at $83 per barrel in 2024?

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