JPM: Taobao's Optimized 'Refund Only' Strategy Positive for Alibaba

Taobao's new "refund-only" policy optimization is seen as a positive move for Alibaba's stock price and earnings outlook, according to JPMorgan. This policy change highlights Taobao's increasing value to merchants and is expected to apply to 40-45% of domestic e-commerce GMV, boosting revenue by RMB 21.7 billion and profit by RMB 13 billion next year.

JPMorgan anticipates a rise in Alibaba's customer management revenue (CMR) in the coming quarters. Besides the additional commission-based earnings, platform-wide promotions are expected to enhance profitability. The new advertising system, fully implemented in 2H25, could further accelerate CMR growth.

JPMorgan set a US$100 target price for Alibaba's US shares and a HK$95 target price for its H-shares, both rated Overweight.