July 16 Market Analysis

On Tuesday, the Dow and Russell small-cap stocks rose for five consecutive days. Among them, the Dow rose more than 740 points in a single day, the best performance in more than a year and reached a new high. The S&P 500 index climbed to a new high for the third day in a row, reflecting the continued rotation of capital between various segments of the market. The small-cap stock index surged 3.5%, making it the fifth time since 1979 that it has risen more than 1% every day for five consecutive days. The cumulative increase in this round was over 11%, the best performance since April 2020. The Nasdaq 100 index closed slightly higher after falling throughout the day. The performance of small-cap stocks compared to the NASDAQ 100 index in the last four trading days was the biggest since 2011.

The US retail sales data for June exceeded market expectations, and the month-on-month increase in sales other than automobiles reached the highest level in three months. The monthly retail sales growth rate was 0%, better than the market forecast of -0.3%, and the May data was also revised up from 0.1% to 0.3%. The news had a positive impact on the market and boosted confidence that US consumer spending is still healthy.

Under the influence of macroeconomic data and Trump's remarks, the price of spot gold rose by about 2%, approaching 2,470 US dollars and reaching a new high. Meanwhile, the yield on US long-term treasury bonds reached its lowest point in four months, while oil prices fell for the third day in a row.

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