Kamala vs Trump Election – Who Will Win?
Besides loving Kamala’s public rally speeches, I do my best to stay objective and unbiased with my political view as a non-US resident on who will potentially win the market election based on quantitative and qualitative ‘market signals’:
Quantitative Signals
1. Betting sites - Trump wins (as Polymarket/Betfair/Kalshi/Smarket/Election Betting Odds have more bets for a Trump win)
1. US stock market vs European stock market - Trump wins (with policy that promotes higher market inflation as European stocks lagged against a rising US stock market) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-already-priced-trump-010400215.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALopZH9kujMxYuOAO4_qhbUhW7Z_YonbVNXt-MIH_S5T8gwdlU7nwzjPws6Yr0a9IN4M1zvh1rKxXvZ_9x9t666q5JP7Uq0913a9LmLJ4MjXo-1GdklpYv4akaWL5GGGVKQyg57_Uhks73dzy6ixkaTm4t8yMRqHnCyv3QOgbYnY –
2. 2/10/30 years treasury bond yields are up, TLT bond is down (despite interest rates cut) and US dollar is up to price in inflation - Trump wins (with his policy on potential higher levy against Chinese/European imported goods tax & crackdown on illegal immigration): https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/us-treasury-yields-soar-fed-caution-us-presidential-elections-uncertainty-among-key-reasons-analysts-expect-reversal-11729755750177.html
3. S&P index - Kamala wins (as market is up BEFORE election indicating a DEMOCRAT win with data collected by LPL shows the index has gotten the election right in 20 of the last 24 presidential contests, including in 2016, when Trump’s win shocked the world. The index, according to LPL, fell 2.3 percent leading up to Election Day — indicating that a change in the White House was looming) https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/31/stock-market-betting-kamala-harris-win-00185818
4. Billionaire index: Billionaire backing: 83 (Kamala) vs 52 (Trump) – Kamala wins (with a bigger money machine backing her campaign) - https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/10/30/kamala-harris-has-more-billionaires-prominently-backing-her-than-trump-bezos-and-griffin-weigh-in-updated/
5. Banking/crypto market sectors and US dollars – mixed (not a strong predictor) https://www.ig.com/en-ch/news-and-trade-ideas/Trump-vs-Harris-election-effects-on-currency-and-crypto-241014
Qualitative Signals
a. Top down analyst (President Election Nostradamus): Professor Allan Lightman - he was right 9 out of 11 times (with his 13 keys) – he predicted ‘Kamala wins’ with a right prediction for Donald Trump win previously when nobody believes in him: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTVAyBICoYA
b. Bottom up analyst: Liberal filmmaker Michael Moore Predicts Kamala Harris Will DEFEAT Trump—Possibly in a Landslide: https://www.michaelmoore.com/p/do-the-math-trump-is-toast
1. Well known American political analyst
a. Stanley Drunkenmiller (Trump wins) - https://fortune.com/2024/10/17/billionaire-investor-stanley-druckenmiller-trump-win-kamala-harris-election/
d. DJT stock lost $2.4b (41% value in 3 days) as stock price fell (Kamala wins) - https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/01/investing/trump-stock-net-worth/index.html and https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-DJT/
2. Wall Street billionaire:
Election Outcome – Sectors to Watch
– Kamala (crowdist/popular candidate): tech, AI, healthcare, sustainability (green), crypto (Stocks with shareholders in particular democrate friendly sectors like green companies demonstrated dominant support for her and she is very much likeable like the next Obama)
– Trump (soloist candidate): DJT, TSLA, Interactive Broker or energy, bank and crypto sector companies (Stock shareholers that support him seem to be from a single business of a sector like TSLA from green sector which can posed business or non-diversified risk)
Whoever Win, Who Cares? Most Important You Win
No matter which president wins, most importantly position yourself as an investor who can win:
SHORT TERM: First 2 months after election
1. Stock market fall before election – time to accumulate on Sept and Oct month as per chart at https://x.com/callieabost/status/1815796810838950374
2. Average next 3 month BEST returns – Democrat wins white house control and split congress control – 3.93% - https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/how-presidential-elections-affect-the-stock-market.html
LONG TERM: Next 4 years after election
1. The S&P 500 has consistently grown in value over the long term, no matter who’s in office. Best bets are to stay invested in S&P500, US growth stocks, US value stocks, US real estate, world ex-USA: https://go.ycharts.com/hubfs/How_Do_Presidential_Elections_Impact_the_Market/Election_Guide.pdf
2. Average annualized S&P performance (1950-2023) – Kamala win with divided congress can offer BEST return at 15.72% vs a Trump win with divided congress at 12.2%: https://darrowwealthmanagement.com/blog/stock-market-performance-by-president-in-charts/
a. First year: +6.7%
b. Second year: +3.3%
c. Third year: +13.5%
d. Fourth year: +7.5% (current year 2024)
3. Presidential Election Cycle Theory (1933-2015) for next 4 years:
Donald Trump’s presidency was a notable exception to the first-year stock slump that the theory predicts. The Republican actively pursued an individual and corporate income tax cut that was passed in late 2017, fueling a rally that saw the S&P 500 rise 19.4%.9 His second year in office saw the index take a 6.2% dive which is consistent with the theory. Furthermore, the third year marked an especially strong time for equities, as the S&P surged 28.9%, again consistent with the theory.8
However, the Biden administration saw returns very similar to those predicted by the election cycle model. In his first year in office, the S&P 500 gained over 26%, followed by a drop of -18%. The third year of his administration saw gains of 24%, which aligns with the theory.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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F U C K : love her speeches ? my grandpa told me years ago. don't trust some that promises you tomorrow but had the power to change it yesterday. of course u want kamala. she'll let u in for free. Trump didn't just promise. he delivered! Trump 2024!!!
Miko-san : Kamala loves telling a lot of sob stories to tug at people's heartstrings, but in reality it's all empty because she was in office for the past 3.5 years yet the blatant open border is insane and she has no remorse for those affected by illegals.
She did Nothing for those affected by the hurricane.
She does not care about anyone, she is a politician to a T, no one should trust anything that comes out of their mouth.
If 90% of media and elites are backing her and keep parroting the same words about her, that should be a crimson Red flag right there.
Ashitaba明日叶 : It doesn't matter who wins the election. They are just like robots, doing the bidding of neo cons. If they anyone disobeys, they may end up like JFK. It's just more of the same. Period.!!!!!!!!!!!
F U C K : whoever is running the country now cause it's not joe,definitely not kamala. They pulled some strings to get kamala in her position now.. Those ppl want her to win and will do anything to make it happen so they can run the country for the next 4 years