Key Data Influencing Stock Market Volatility
let's take a look at the key economic data that we should focus on next week (as illustrated in the table below). These statistics have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's plans for interest rate adjustments and market expectations.
Interest rates are the most important factor affecting valuations. As rates change, the value of all financial assets—houses, stocks, bonds—shifts, making the Fed’s rate moves crucial for valuations.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are primarily guided by two indicators: employment and inflation. In terms of employment, the key figures to watch are the unemployment rate and the labor force participation rate. For inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is the primary focus.
The main difference between Core PCE and PCE lies in the exclusion of food and energy prices in the Core PCE to provide a more accurate reflection of price changes driven by consumers' substitution of products. Additionally, the weights in the Core PCE Price Index are adjusted quarterly, unlike the CPI, which has fixed weights. The breakdown and weighting of the Core PCE Price Index show that services have a much larger weight than goods, with housing and utilities as well as healthcare services having the highest weights.
$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield(US10Y.BD$ $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ $E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(SEP4)(NQmain.US$ $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ $Microsoft(MSFT.US$ $Apple(AAPL.US$ $Amazon(AMZN.US$
$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield(US10Y.BD$ $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ $E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(SEP4)(NQmain.US$ $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ $Microsoft(MSFT.US$ $Apple(AAPL.US$ $Amazon(AMZN.US$
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