Key Events to Watch This Week: CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, and Powell’s Speech

While markets are open today (Veterans Day), U.S. bond markets are closed, but this week still holds crucial economic events. Here’s a quick overview of key events and data releases, with a particular focus on investor-related insights:

CPI (Wednesday): Headline CPI is forecast at +0.20%, slightly softer due to lower energy prices. This will be closely watched for signs of inflationary pressure.
PPI (Thursday): Offers further insight into inflationary trends within production costs.
Retail Sales (Friday): Signals consumer strength heading into Q4, a critical factor in assessing the Fed’s rate strategy.
Fed Speakers: Chair Powell speaks Thursday, and investors will listen closely for any policy updates post-election.

UK Employment Data & German ZEW Survey (Tuesday)
Eurozone GDP & ECB Meeting Minutes (Thursday)
China’s Monthly Data Release (Friday): Includes industrial production, retail sales, and property investment. These will be essential for evaluating China’s economic resilience amid ongoing U.S.-China tensions.

DB economists expect core inflation to rise modestly, potentially causing the Fed to hold rates higher for longer, with rates unlikely to fall below 4% despite market expectations.

In summary, this week’s CPI and retail sales data, along with Fed comments, could affect market sentiment. Inflation data will shape Fed expectations, while retail sales provide a snapshot of consumer spending—a central concern for sustained economic growth.