Key points from Musk's speech at Tesla's 2024 shareholder meeting
Summary
The author tried to sort out the key points of Musk's speech at the shareholders' meeting as follows:
1. Two shareholder resolutions were passed
2. FSD and robotaxi
3. Optimus humanoid robot
4. Cybertruck and Semi semi-trailer
5. Supercharging network
6. Energy storage
7. HW5
1. Two shareholder resolutions were passed
This shareholders' meeting passed "Re-approval of Musk's 2018 compensation plan", with a 71.8% approval rate, and "Moving Tesla's registered place from Delaware to Texas", with a 83.7% approval rate. Musk and his brother Kimbal did not participate in the two votes. $Tesla(TSLA.US$
After the vote, Tesla intends to resubmit Musk's compensation plan to the Delaware court for appeal and wait for the court's ruling. Although it cannot 100% guarantee that the 2018 compensation plan will be implemented, this vote is a strong support.
2. FSD and robotaxi
Musk mentioned that each version of FSD has a greater iteration, consumers should try the new version to experience it, and the safety of autonomous driving will exceed that of humans in the future.
Based on autonomous driving, robotaxi is like a combination of Airbnb and Uber $UBER(UBER.US)$. Tesla will own some cars, just like Uber; and Tesla's customers own fleets, just like Airbnb. Customers can let their cars join or leave the fleet at any time, Tesla will take a commission, and most of the robotaxi revenue will be given to customers.
Musk is optimistic about the above happening, and believes that this will eventually be realized, and believes that autonomous driving can increase Tesla's value by 10 times. Regarding this part, the author knows that there is a lot of controversy, but things are very controversial before they can finally be done, such as the launch of Starship. At present, FSD has indeed made great progress, and autonomous driving does represent a trend, which is the right direction.
3. Optimus humanoid robot
Musk believes that in the future the ratio of humans to humanoid robots may be 1:2, or at least 1:1. Assuming the scale of 1 billion humanoid robots per year, even if Tesla only accounts for 10% of them, it means that 100 million Optimus humanoid robots are produced every year. If the production cost is $10,000 and the selling price is $20,000, then this can bring a profit of $1 trillion. If the price-earnings ratio is 20 or 25 times, Optimus alone can bring a market value of $20 trillion.
The above paragraph is equivalent to Musk's valuation of Tesla Optimus with "end game thinking". Of course, this is a very distant thing. The current situation is that Tesla has deployed a small number of humanoid robots in the factory for testing. Musk speculates that there may be a breakthrough in generalization capabilities in 2026, and there may be more than 1,000 humanoid robots working in Tesla next year.
4. Cybertruck and Semi semi-trailer
Cybertruck is currently being delivered in large quantities, setting a record of 1,300 vehicles per week. This year, Cybertruck will only be available in the North American market. What is important now is mass production. If a version suitable for other countries is launched now, it will increase the complexity, which is meaningless before mass production. But there may be versions in other countries later.
Last week, Musk approved the mass production plan of Tesla Semi, which is also a cool car.
At the same time, Tesla is also developing some new models, but has not yet announced them.
5. Supercharger network
For the rest of the year, Tesla expects to spend about $500 million on supercharger deployment. This year or next, Tesla will also open up some new markets and open superchargers to other companies.
6. Energy storage
Musk said that energy storage seems to be expected to achieve an annual year-on-year growth of 200% to 300%. Musk believes that Megapack 2 is an outstanding product. Megapack 3 will not be launched for the time being, and the production capacity of Powerwall 3 is being stepped up.
7. HW5
Tesla has just completed the design of HW5, which will be launched in about 18 months and will have 10 times the performance of HW4. HW5 will be included in Optimus and all cars in about 18 months.
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