Lao Bao was interpreted as a dovish, didn't you expect
After listening to the press conference, I just thought it was a cliché. There are no hawks, and I didn't expect the market to interpret it as a big dove.
Interest rates were raised by 75 basis points just in September, which was too strong. If you wait and see this time, you would expect, ah, somewhere... However, the market is always right, just follow the trend.
I checked the bottom of last week, and I basically sold everything without waiting for the interest rate meeting because I don't want to experience this kind of uncertainty. So if you miss it, you've probably missed it. Since it went up today, I sold a little more. Mainly because SPY has now risen to the upper end of the downward channel. This is a bit beyond expectations; I think it will only rebound to around 4200-4250.
Another reason for the sale is that it will be a big African farmer in the morning. Since this year, large and small non-farmers have basically gone against each other every time, and Friday is probably no exception. However, there is no point in predicting; plans must be made:
If the number of employed people exceeds expectations, it may cause the stock price to fall. However, the economy is still strong; it is an opportunity to buy high-quality stocks on dips. Will keep an eye on TLT, but won't necessarily buy it.
If it basically meets expectations, this is the hardest to operate. There is a possibility that the stock market will continue to rebound, and it will not be fun to chase higher. I will wait and see if SPY will rebound more than the previous high. As long as S&P rises by another 2% and the band's high exceeds the previous high, this wave of bear market structure will be destroyed. It probably means the end of the three-month downward cycle.
If it falls far short of expectations, then the economy is estimated to go downhill, so I will buy TLT $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
Currently I have $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ , there are very few positions in other technology stocks, including $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ Everything was cut at the high school today. In addition, it currently mainly holds:
$UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$ , but the position was reduced a bit
$The Health Care Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLV.US)$ , added some positions
The position was reduced $Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$ 。 It has already increased positions in military stocks to hedge against the risk of war. If the economy faces a recession and there is no war, oil prices will drop drastically, so I chose to leave the market and wait and see.
Opened a position and bought $T-Mobile US (TMUS.US)$ with $The Travelers Companies (TRV.US)$ 。 I think telecom operators should be considered public utilities, and the insurance industry will benefit from an environment of high interest rates and high inflation.
As for UNH, although it is also insurance, there is actually a potential risk: much of this kind of health insurance is based on employment relationships. If the unemployment rate soars sharply, companies have fewer employees, or companies go out of business one after another, then health insurance expenses will be drastically reduced. So if the unemployment rate continues to rise, then I will be cautious about UNH.
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本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。此账号为本人唯一社媒平台。
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Tesla 1st :
Thank you
defishu : It's not a market interpretation, is Wall Street going too far ahead of schedule, no matter what he says
高贵的阿德莱德 OP defishu : Yes, Wall Street forcibly interprets