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Large stocks that led the [TOPIX highest value for the first time in 34 and a half years]! Which stocks still have a lot of room to rise?

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ビットバレー投資家 wrote a column · Jul 4 13:02
On the 4thTOPIX (TSE Stock Price Index) hits an all-time high for the first time in about 34 and a half yearsI did it. At one point, 2900.91, which is the first 2900 units, was attached, and it surpassed 2886.50 on 1989/12/18 during the peak of the bubble. The closing price was also 2898.47, breaking the highest price (2884.80) on the same day in 1989.
The Nikkei Stock Average hit a new high in February, but TOPIX was delayed by more than 4 months and exceeded the bubble period.
Compared to the Nikkei Stock Average, which is a simple average of major stocks, they are weighted based on market capitalizationWhat has a strong influence on TOPIX is large stocks with a large market capitalizationthat's it. Since the beginning of this yearTop 20 stocks with a high contribution to TOPIX's riseWe will confirm whether there is still room for improvement based on analyst evaluations.
Large stocks overwhelm the year-to-date gain/fall rate
Whereas TOPIX's year-to-date gain/fall rate until 7/3 is 21.4%, it consists of the top 30 stocks with high market capitalization and liquidityTopixCore30's year-to-date gain/fall rate is 28.5%It greatly exceeds that. Meanwhile, the year-to-date gain/fall rate of TopixSmall, which consists of small-cap stocks excluding the top 500 stocks, remains at 13.0%, and there is a gap of more than 2 times.
What are the companies and industries that have contributed a lot to TOPIX's rise?
▲The top 20 stocks that contributed to TOPIX increase since the beginning of the year and the year-to-date gain/fall rate (from Bloomberg)
▲The top 20 stocks that contributed to TOPIX increase since the beginning of the year and the year-to-date gain/fall rate (from Bloomberg)
The one that has contributed the most to TOPIX's rise since the beginning of this year has the highest weight in TOPIX, in other words, the largest market capitalization $Toyota Motor (7203.JP)$. However, only one automobile manufacturer ranked Toyota, second only to this $Honda Motor (7267.JP)$It is ranked 22nd (1.07% increase contribution).
Industries with many stocks in the top 20 are finance with 3 megabanks and 3 insurance companies, and trading companies with 4 of the 5 major trading companies listed. Also, $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$Ya $Disco (6146.JP)$There are also many semiconductor-related things, such as $SoftBank Group (9984.JP)$Including, it accounts for the majority of the top 20 companies in finance (banking/insurance), trading companies, and semiconductor-related matters.
What is the room for growth based on analyst ratings?
▲Room for growth based on analyst evaluations of the top 20 stocks contributing to TOPIX increase since the beginning of the year
▲Room for growth based on analyst evaluations of the top 20 stocks contributing to TOPIX increase since the beginning of the year
Toyota Motor Corporation, which has the highest contribution, has a year-to-date gain/fall rate of 30% until 7/3, and there is room for an 11% rise until the average target stock price by 18 analysts. The RSI (14th) as of the 3rd has also not reached “overbought.”
Banks and insurance are currently buying strongly in response to interest rate increases, and there is little room for growth based on analyst evaluations. Even at RSI, stocks with an “overbought” sign stand out.
Also, the year-to-date gain/fall rate has risen to 140% $Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011.JP)$RSI has become “overbought.” $Hitachi (6501.JP)$Ya $Recruit Holdings (6098.JP)$The RSI has also risen to the point where it is “slightly overbought.”
Meanwhile, trading companies and semiconductor-related businesses have relatively large room for improvement based on analyst evaluations. With Tokyo Electron $Mitsui (8031.JP)$The 3-day closing price has a divergence rate of over 10% from the average target price according to analysts, and Mitsui & Co.'s RSI is below 50. $Daiichi Sankyo (4568.JP)$There is also room for growth of 9% based on analyst evaluations, and there is room for RSI to be “overbought.”
ー MooMoo News Mark
Source: Bloomberg, Moomoo
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only. Read more
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