⚠️⚠️Let me briefly talk about some views and operational suggestions on the current market

25 basis points, or 50 basis points? The U.S. August retail sales report released today may determine the extent of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this Wednesday. The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode. There should not be particularly large fluctuations in the next two trading days. In fact, there is little need for these days. Pay attention to the index, because after the interest rate meeting, there will inevitably be a direction. Just follow that direction. Short-term return to focus on the underlying stocks is a better strategy.

I once said that when NVDA and AVGO rise too sharply in the short term, funds may flow out of these two chip giants and go to speculate on other super giants that are still at low prices, and then the index will fluctuate sideways.

2. Tips on holding AAPL

After the market opened yesterday, AAPL staged a big plunge. Companies such as AVGO, MU, TSM, SWKS, QRVO and NVDA were basically brought down by AAPL. The first few companies were in the AAPL supply chain.

A key factor in lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone 16 Pro series is that Apple Intelligence, a key selling point, was not synchronized with the iPhone 16 launch. Before the AAPL conference, I had predicted that this year’s iPhone 16 series would not sell particularly well. Sales of the iPhone 16 were sluggish, mainly due to a lack of innovation.

I estimate that after the official launch on September 20, after many evaluation tests are completed, AAPL may have another round of plummeting. Friends who hold it, please be cautious.

3. The amount of the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase volume fell below US$250 billion in a single day yesterday, hitting a new low since June 2021. The sharp decline in the use of reverse repurchases indicates that market liquidity has once again turned on the red light. The risk of a subsequent liquidity crisis is increasing. The liquidity of US stocks has become worse. The subsequent surges and plummets of giants may become the norm.

4. It is impossible to predict now whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points or by 50 basis points. When the interest rate cut news comes out, it is actually impossible to predict whether it will be good or bad, because the power of interpretation is completely in the hands of institutions.

A 25 basis point interest rate cut can be interpreted as "the U.S. economy is strong", which is good, or it can be interpreted as "the interest rate cut is less than expected", which is bad.

A 50 basis point interest rate cut can be interpreted as "the United States has begun to decline", which is a negative; it can also be interpreted as "releasing more liquidity", which is a positive. It all depends on how Wall Street institutions interpret it.

⚠️⚠️My thoughts on trading

Start from the index level. The strength of the three major stock indexes is different. The Dow has broken through the previous high resistance level and continues to pull upward; the S&P is oscillating near new highs, probably waiting for the results of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting; the Nasdaq has emerged from a triangle consolidation pattern, with long and short balance, and the next step should be There will be big fluctuations.

Short-term trading depends more on news, capital and technology. We use INTC as an example

①Intel manufactures customized AI chips for Amazon, and the two parties have reached a several-year cooperation framework on products and wafers; ②Intel has received government support and government grants of up to US$3 billion; ③Intel plans to convert its foundry business (IFS) from The company was separated from other businesses and became a wholly-owned subsidiary; ④ Intel further reduced its overseas expansion plans and began to reduce costs and increase efficiency and lay off employees; ⑤ Intel received a military contract of up to US$3.5 billion from the Pentagon.

So at this position, I suggest you pay appropriate attention to INTC. It is now at the bottom area and with so many good things coming. If it rebounds to $24 this time, I estimate there is still about 15% profit margin.