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Let's change our way of thinking in order to win by investing!

“In order for investment beginners to win by investing”
This theme has been posted over and over again in seminars and videos, and now I'm going to leave it here as a text.
I'm not an investment expert, and I'm not from a financial institution. I'm just an ordinary individual investor who likes investing for over 20 years and has made numerous mistakes.
But there are things I've learned since becoming the caller myself. That's whatIn order to win by investing, you must first change your way of thinkingThat's it.
That is,
・There is no way to win by investing
・However, there are methods and experiences that always fail
It is.
It's the same at work, isn't it? There's no easy way to succeed at work. In other words, there is no repeatable method of success. Even if you take a success experience seminar with Mr. Sun and Mr. Yanai, we ordinary people cannot reproduce it, and neither luck nor bad luck are reproducible.
In other wordsIt's no use just searching for “how to succeed at work”What is it.
There is no choice but to get closer to success while repeating mistakes on your own.
However,Experiences and methods that our ancestors failed to do are reproducibleI will do it. SoLearn about failure from your ancestorsIf you build up avoiding it one by one, “you will get closer to successThat's why. It makes it easier to avoid conceding goals due to failure.
Investing is the same.
We look for “ways to win.” If you look for someone you can win, listen to that person's opinion, and invest based on that person's sense of market price, you have the illusion that you can win.
You can't win with this for the rest of your life.
Increase the accuracy of success by piling up “what to do to fail” and “what to avoid” one by oneThere is nothing but that.
Now on to the main subject (laughs)
What can I do to fail when investing? What is the easiest to understand“Proverb,” “Anomaly,” and “Seasonal.”It is.
I have repeatedly denied “proverbs,” “anomalies,” and “seasonal,” and said that if you invest with something like this, you can't win... but this is because when I was young, I loved data, and there was a time when I invested with seasonal data. Of course, the results were disastrous.
I'm writing this on 2024.4.16, but now what do people who like “sayings,” “anomalies,” and “seasonal” invest on?
・The Nikkei Average for April has a win rate of 60% in the past 50 years, 7 wins and 3 losses in the last 10 years
・Since stocks are sold in May at Cell in May, April is expensive
・Mercury is in retrograde, so stocks will fall!
・Since Mercury is in retrograde, stocks will either drop or rise a lot! (volatility jumps)
・A war in the distance is a buy!
There are “sayings,” “anomalies,” and “seasonality” in both sales and purchases.
So which one are you going to choose this time?
After all, anomalies on the side that goes up and anomalies on the side that goes down every monthDecide by “own discretion” and “atmosphere”That's why.
I can see that there's no way we can win at this point anymore.
Even with 7 wins in the last 10 years, April 2024 is currently in a position where the upper price was devalued from the 1st, high price range on the long-term chart, falling in the medium term, and falling in the short term, and stocks are high in April! If you buy it on that basis alone, it's a big unrealized loss.
Mercury Retrograde lost 5 times in a row due to stock appreciation from the latter half of 2022, and what continued to be out of place for 1 year happened to work this time.
If anyone was able to make a profit due to Mercury Retrograde this time, it is someone who kept bothering for a year and a half. Otherwise, I won't be able to get it this time. It's a story about Anomalies and Seasonals having a win rate of XX% as a result of continuing to IN according to the same rules.
The person who transmits Mercury Retrograde has been losing all this time in this astrology for the past year and a half, so I kept quiet about it and worked this time! That's why.
A war in the distance is a buy! After making a shallow long run, etc., there was a momentary repulsion on the 15th, so it would be great if they bought it at a rock bottom and made a quick profit. Otherwise, this one too would be in the process of losing. The situation is weak, and there is not much need to force yourself to buy in a position of return sales rather than backlash purchases in the first place.
What's more, in this day and age where the world is connected in units of comma seconds, there's no way “far away” has any meaning. When geopolitical risks break out, it is not an easy purchase, and it is natural to respond to falling market prices.
Incidentally, Setsubun ceiling and equinox are sayings from the US market era, but a distant war is probably a Showa adage...
As you probably already understand, if you don't win by investing, stop “anomalous investing, which is a method where you clearly can't win.”
I also became the sender and understood that words and things that everyone knows somehow are easy to use as stories. Because everyone can imagine it.
So“Cell in May,” “Setsubun ceiling equinox,” “XX month is strong/weak,” and “drop in the end.”It transmits things like that.
Moreover, this is “I'm not saying it,” “it's an old adage,” and “that's been the case with data from the past XX years,” and you can avoid your own transmission responsibility. This is very convenient for callers.
So people who disseminate “sayings,” “anomalies,” and “seasonal”
・Investment ability is not high in the first place
・Investment entertainers and entertainers
・I earn money from media appearances and book publishing
There are only people like that.
This is also good for entertainment, but many people who disseminate “proverbs,” “anomalies,” and “seasonal” aren't seriously investing. When you don't show your own originality and rely on “sayings,” “anomalies,” and “seasonality,” it can also be said that you haven't devised a successful experience yourself.
I wrote it quite exaggerated, but people who have really succeeded in investing don't invest with “sayings,” “anomalies,” “seasonal,” etc.
Investors who avoid inefficient or meaningless methods and devise their own investment tactics can winIt is.
What are “sayings,” “anomalous,” and “seasonal”
・When data is actually aggregated, there are many things where there is not much bias or trend
・There is no power that surpasses current fundamentals or supply and demand
It's something like that.
Strange biases such as anomalies are definitely “there” when asked if they “have” or “don't.” I'm not denying that.
However, when it comes to whether it's a method of becoming an investor who can win over a long period of time, it's NO. Words that are easy to understand and catchy sayings are easy for both the sender and receiver. There's no point just because it's easy (laughs)
Before studying various methods to become a winning investor, let's keep a distance from “proverbs,” “anomalies,” and “seasonal.”
If you study, you should make it more meaningful and efficient.
Therefore, I placed emphasis on studying charts. In the current 2024/4 chart analysis, I'm saying it on the video every day, and from around 4/3, it's been posted that “if it goes up, it's time to sell back, far call,” but I've been working for the time being.
Young investors coming in from now on will be a group that can obtain information even more efficiently.
People who rely on “sayings,” “anomalies,” and “seasonal” are probably endangered species...
Those of us who are working hard to invest now should first avoid “old-fashioned wrong methods” and continue taking on challenges with good investment efficiency.
If so, little by little, the probability of becoming a winning investor will increase.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only. Read more
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  • とにお : I was really convinced 😄
    I'm going to steadily build up the necessary studies without being fooled by adages or anomalies! Of course, looking at Kumagai's post is one of them!
    The sentence looked like it was a fraud, but that's the real intention 😅

  • オプション投資ラボ OP とにお : Thanks for commenting!

    I think there are many objections to this kind of communication, and I was worried about whether to write it, but I wrote it as a way of thinking for those who have just started investing.

    I'm happy that there are people who sympathize with me.

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