Let’s try to think strategically
This is the second time I wrote something in here,
Firstly is when I call for $Sea (SE.US)$ when it was 40 USD, I wrote down about some security analysis of what you would do when you have a cash.
Now, lets talk about $MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$
Fred Thiel I personally feel is really reasonable figure on doing corporate finance,
on 2020 ish he also issued a convertibe notes that will be due on 2026, he expected that the BTC drop will not be as dramatic as what we saw on 2022-2023. However, what you would do on 2023 when the BTC price clearly under value ( mining price I rmb was 30k usd during that time but btc price nuking to 15k) , How can you repay your convertible notes ?
you got several options here
1. sell your btc at low ball price
2. issue more notes with high interest rate during that time ??
3. or dilute your shareholder by converting the notes as common stock
what you would do as CEO?
if you were asking me, the less risky move surely is number 3.
Moving forward on 2025,
mining price is in the range of 60-80k usd, you can issue as much as convertible note as possible due to its greedy nature like 2020.
As a CEO what would you do
1. Sell your btc at 100k and save that 20k usd profit margin, then you might be able to buy back your share or re invest. and that’s that 😬
2. or keep your btc till it is fairly over price, and keeps issuing convertible notes with 0% interest too buy back the remaining convertible stock that due 2026. furthermore use fresh cash from convertible note as well to cover the cost of operation to get BTC, while the rest of cash keeps accumulating BTC.
if you were asking me,
definitely I will take number 2, because as a miner you 100%%% know that BTC 100k is still fairly valued and still have a lot of room to grow. You will only choose number 1 when you know BTC price is at the ceiling.
now you might ask what is the ceiling price of BTC then, I would say is when the price is at 2x of mining price, then I will start trimming my load as a miner.
I am honestly not too sure why so many people dislike his corporate strategy, he just made the best out of a bad or good condition.
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