10baggerbamm
TechWhiz
OP
:
if you believe that Bitcoin is going to $100,000 in a year then you just buy and hold this and don't listen to the people that say it's for day trading don't hold it long-term cuz I'm telling you they don't know what the fuck they're talking about. I will tell you why they don't know what they're talking about it's very simple there's closed and mutual funds that trade everyday in virtually every category every sector and they don't trade in parity to the underlying assets and you don't see people getting their panties in a bunch because the net asset value May trade it a premium to the underlying assets and when it's Mark to Market and you figure out what they're worth you could be down 1% 5% 10% 20%. and the reason I say this is because there's been times that closed and mutual funds stop trading and they distribute the assets back to the investors so if you were to buy a mutual fund that's closed in and you bought it at a premium and for whatever the reason the managers decide to stop trading when they give you back the assets you're going to lose money because it was trading at a premium when you bought it. alternatively and I can tell you this is a matter of fact for example the Irish mutual fund it was a closed and fund it used to trade it 15 to 20% discount in that asset value all the time and this goes back 30 plus years and I remember hearing people on TV old you're buying this at a discount and all they have to do is just whole trading it and give you back the value and you're going to make 15 20 25%. not only did it never happen people still continue to buy it.
10baggerbamm
10baggerbamm
:
pt 2 so nowadays you have leveraged ETFs and they may trade It 1.75 to 400%, 4X the underlying positions. number one they can trade at a premium or a discount based off of momentum because you can have people by the ETF and it gets bit up or it drops more than the underlying portfolio. and you can see this with BITX. there are days when Bitcoin may be down a half a percent and 1% and the next day this ETF all of a sudden that I'm nowhere is it starts trading higher by over a dollar and you scratch your head and you go man fuck it this is awesome bitcoins down and now the ETF is trading up. and I've been in it where you flip the coin where bitcoins trading higher and the next day this Gap is down. and it works the same with every ETF. so that's another point that people don't ever discuss. it's no different than if you buy a stock and it's nothing but good news and all of a sudden a massive block smacks it and it starts trading down and you scratch your head like I don't get it it's all positive news there's a buy recommendation they raise their guidance and stocks trading down hey guess what that's the risk you take when you invest there's no ABSOLUTES. if you are bullish there's nothing wrong with holding it I held soxl from 20 to 70. and I bought and sold secondary positions around it the whole time and I listen to people say oh don't hold it it's got decay don't hold it. I held nvdu for 8 Plus months. what did Nvidia do? who gives a shit if I were to calculate I only made $199% not 200% and it's a leveraged ETF that was 2x I got screwed by one point. try to get that leverage any other way! what do you do you can go on margin.
10baggerbamm
10baggerbamm
:
pt 3 so what's margin interest depending upon how much you're borrowing prime plus well that's going to be a lot more than the fraction of the percent used by the ETF to garnish margin.. so if you hold margin for a year and the stock goes up and you bought twice as much you're buying power to leverage your position cuz you're bullish and I bought a leveraged ETF I'm coming out way ahead because I don't have that interest payment my cost is far less by over 8% less. so now you say well you know what I'm just going to buy the stock and I'll buy calls against it to gain leverage that's fine you could do that but you have to be right about the time and the strike and you have decay to deal with in the underlying option and you have volatility premium built into your contracts and you're going to have to keep rolling them and your cost is going to be far greater even though you have greater leverage because you're basically 10 to one with an option you have to be right about time and strike.
10baggerbamm
10baggerbamm
:
I've also bought utsl I held that for a year that's a 3X leverage ETF on utilities and my theory was you need to be ahead of the curve when interest rates come down people are going to buy higher yielding investments like utilities because the alternative sitting in a money market or a treasury is going to be reduced as a result of interest rates coming down and utso went from 18 ultimately to over $32. I bought the regional Bank leverage dpst we had silicon valley Bank blow up last year created all the problems with regional Banks a trillion dollars of commercial loans have to be refinanced I'm not going into it but they beat the shit out of the regional Banks and you need to be ahead of the curve or you're late so I started buying the regional Banks when this basket was in the low 60s it went well over $100 during the time frame that I held it. and I pounded the table back in February when I got here telling people to buy different leverage ETFs if they were bullish and I got the same response oh it's got decay..
10baggerbamm
10baggerbamm
:
what I'm telling you is if you believe the underlying stock and or sector has significant upside in a defined period so if you say within 6 months a year I believe it's going to go from the current price 20 30 40 50% more whatever you believe. and if there's a leveraged ETF that you can invest in. buy it! I will tell you this the decay is not going to be your problem you will never notice it. what you will notice and what you will experience is if there's a market sell-off you've never had pain you've never experienced stress and anxiety like a leveraged ETF will put you in. a 15% decline in a stock is a 45% decline in a 3X ETF and it's probably going to be more because when people start selling that ETF it will trade at a discount to the assets and get pushed down even further versus the underlying stocks in the portfolio. so if you're going to play a leverage ETF you need to have thick skin because it's not going to be the profits that you should be afraid of it's not the decay that you should be afraid of it's the excruciating pain and destruction to your account if that sector or one or two primary stocks in that leverage portfolio blow up.
TechWhiz OP : Don't hodl this, you will lose your underwear. This is for day trading
Brother JE TechWhiz OP : How come?
TechWhiz OP Brother JE : Read the article on decay. But then again , if mstr keeps going up, you can win big with Saylor
10baggerbamm TechWhiz OP : if you believe that Bitcoin is going to $100,000 in a year then you just buy and hold this and don't listen to the people that say it's for day trading don't hold it long-term cuz I'm telling you they don't know what the fuck they're talking about. I will tell you why they don't know what they're talking about it's very simple there's closed and mutual funds that trade everyday in virtually every category every sector and they don't trade in parity to the underlying assets and you don't see people getting their panties in a bunch because the net asset value May trade it a premium to the underlying assets and when it's Mark to Market and you figure out what they're worth you could be down 1% 5% 10% 20%. and the reason I say this is because there's been times that closed and mutual funds stop trading and they distribute the assets back to the investors so if you were to buy a mutual fund that's closed in and you bought it at a premium and for whatever the reason the managers decide to stop trading when they give you back the assets you're going to lose money because it was trading at a premium when you bought it. alternatively and I can tell you this is a matter of fact for example the Irish mutual fund it was a closed and fund it used to trade it 15 to 20% discount in that asset value all the time and this goes back 30 plus years and I remember hearing people on TV old you're buying this at a discount and all they have to do is just whole trading it and give you back the value and you're going to make 15 20 25%. not only did it never happen people still continue to buy it.
10baggerbamm 10baggerbamm : pt 2
so nowadays you have leveraged ETFs and they may trade It 1.75 to 400%, 4X the underlying positions. number one they can trade at a premium or a discount based off of momentum because you can have people by the ETF and it gets bit up or it drops more than the underlying portfolio.
and you can see this with BITX. there are days when Bitcoin may be down a half a percent and 1% and the next day this ETF all of a sudden that I'm nowhere is it starts trading higher by over a dollar and you scratch your head and you go man fuck it this is awesome bitcoins down and now the ETF is trading up. and I've been in it where you flip the coin where bitcoins trading higher and the next day this Gap is down. and it works the same with every ETF. so that's another point that people don't ever discuss.
it's no different than if you buy a stock and it's nothing but good news and all of a sudden a massive block smacks it and it starts trading down and you scratch your head like I don't get it it's all positive news there's a buy recommendation they raise their guidance and stocks trading down hey guess what that's the risk you take when you invest there's no ABSOLUTES. if you are bullish there's nothing wrong with holding it I held soxl from 20 to 70. and I bought and sold secondary positions around it the whole time and I listen to people say oh don't hold it it's got decay don't hold it. I held nvdu for 8 Plus months. what did Nvidia do? who gives a shit if I were to calculate I only made $199% not 200% and it's a leveraged ETF that was 2x I got screwed by one point. try to get that leverage any other way! what do you do you can go on margin.
10baggerbamm 10baggerbamm : pt 3
so what's margin interest depending upon how much you're borrowing prime plus well that's going to be a lot more than the fraction of the percent used by the ETF to garnish margin.. so if you hold margin for a year and the stock goes up and you bought twice as much you're buying power to leverage your position cuz you're bullish and I bought a leveraged ETF I'm coming out way ahead because I don't have that interest payment my cost is far less by over 8% less. so now you say well you know what I'm just going to buy the stock and I'll buy calls against it to gain leverage that's fine you could do that but you have to be right about the time and the strike and you have decay to deal with in the underlying option and you have volatility premium built into your contracts and you're going to have to keep rolling them and your cost is going to be far greater even though you have greater leverage because you're basically 10 to one with an option you have to be right about time and strike.
10baggerbamm 10baggerbamm : I've also bought utsl I held that for a year that's a 3X leverage ETF on utilities and my theory was you need to be ahead of the curve when interest rates come down people are going to buy higher yielding investments like utilities because the alternative sitting in a money market or a treasury is going to be reduced as a result of interest rates coming down and utso went from 18 ultimately to over $32. I bought the regional Bank leverage dpst we had silicon valley Bank blow up last year created all the problems with regional Banks a trillion dollars of commercial loans have to be refinanced I'm not going into it but they beat the shit out of the regional Banks and you need to be ahead of the curve or you're late so I started buying the regional Banks when this basket was in the low 60s it went well over $100 during the time frame that I held it.
and I pounded the table back in February when I got here telling people to buy different leverage ETFs if they were bullish and I got the same response oh it's got decay..
10baggerbamm 10baggerbamm : what I'm telling you is if you believe the underlying stock and or sector has significant upside in a defined period so if you say within 6 months a year I believe it's going to go from the current price 20 30 40 50% more whatever you believe. and if there's a leveraged ETF that you can invest in. buy it!
I will tell you this the decay is not going to be your problem you will never notice it. what you will notice and what you will experience is if there's a market sell-off you've never had pain you've never experienced stress and anxiety like a leveraged ETF will put you in. a 15% decline in a stock is a 45% decline in a 3X ETF and it's probably going to be more because when people start selling that ETF it will trade at a discount to the assets and get pushed down even further versus the underlying stocks in the portfolio. so if you're going to play a leverage ETF you need to have thick skin because it's not going to be the profits that you should be afraid of it's not the decay that you should be afraid of it's the excruciating pain and destruction to your account if that sector or one or two primary stocks in that leverage portfolio blow up.
xingzhi123668 : How much is the rate?
10baggerbamm : how's that decay working for you? still sitting on the sidelines twiddling your thumbs