Lily's New Alzheimer's Drug Could Sell $7.1 Billion: Analysts

According to BMO, Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) has newly approvedKisunla as a remedy for Alzheimer's diseaseis a peak time for the companyUp to $7.1 billion in salesThere is a possibility that it will be created, and it will contribute to diversification of profit sources for pharmaceutical manufacturers.

According to Lilly, the drug price of Kisunla, also known as donanemab, is $32,000 per year and $695.65 per vial. This drug is expected to compete with Eisai (OTCPK: ESAIY) and Biogen (BIIB) Rekenbi, and Rekenbi has obtained FDA approval in 2023. According to reports, Rekembi costs around $26,500 per year.

Both drugs are given by intravenous injection. Lily'sKisunla is infused every 4 weeksIt should be done, but since Leqembi is administered every 2 weeks, Lily is advantageous in terms of convenience. Both drugs are in the brainReduces levels of amyloid plaquesThe purpose is to cause it, and it is thought that amyloid plaques play a major role in the onset and progression of this disease.

“BMO anticipates that Kisunla's listing will not proceed as slowly as Leqembi, but approval represents a meaningful expansion opportunity in the neuroscience field for the company,” BMO said in a Wednesday memo.

Currently, Lilly's source of revenue is diabetes medications. The top sales in 2023 was the diabetes drug Trulicity with 7.1 billion dollars, followed by the GLP-1 diabetes remedy Maunjaro at 5.1 billion dollars. Mounjaro is also sold as a weight loss drug under the name Zepbound. Lily's breast cancer drug Belzenio became the third best seller with sales of 3.9 billion dollars. Lily's total sales in 2023 are $34 billion.

BMO also believes that it is advantageous for not only 1 but 2 major pharmaceutical companies to enter the Alzheimer's disease market “considering the critical infrastructure necessary to establish anti-amyloid therapy in the Alzheimer's disease treatment paradigm.”

“Kisunra's approval will be positive for sales of both products,” BMO added.

Meanwhile, SA analyst Steven Ayers estimates Kisunra's peak annual sales to be between $2 billion and $5 billion. Also, there are times when the administration schedule is more convenient, and it is expected that Kisonra will have an advantage over Leckenbi. Also, Lilly pointed out that it is possible to learn from problems when Biogen lists Leqembi, and that it may be possible to gain a second-place advantage.

“Medications like Kisunla and leqembi are highly uncertain in the AD market, but I think Eli Lilly's Kisunla is the better choice. “Kisunla is likely to add a new blockbuster to Eli Lilly's arsenal, and investors should evaluate the diversity of treatment indications.