Look out for me on SBS World News Tonight after 7pm
Look out for me on SBS World News Tonight 7pm ish. Here are some rought points which may be mentioned FYI
The Aussie share market has slumped today, following a weak lead from overseas. Can you talk us through those drivers?
In two words: ‘Growth Concerns’. The Aussie market followed the US market lower because, firstly, US construction data was weaker than expected. Secondly, manufacturing didn’t grow as quickly as anticipated. Thirdly, Nvidia's growth is being questioned again after it was hit by a subpoena from the US DOJ on antitrust allegations for being the dominant AI computing provider. It seems everything happens in threes.
With that in mind, September is historically the worst month of the year for US shares, and its a bad month for Aussie shares too. But the good news is that the following three months—October, November, and December—are traditionally the best time of year for share market returns.
GDP came in today, largely in line with expectations, though those annual figures are a bit higher. What was your take?
Yes, the Australian economy grew stronger than expected, and the prior GDP was revised up to 1.3% YoY. We’ve seen 11 quarters of growth, but growth is slowing. If you take out CPI of 3.8%, you're left with no growth. We also had weaker-than-expected data from China today, so investors will be playing defense.
The RBA is concerned about CPI. Cash rate futures have not fully priced in a single cut at an RBA meeting, but the market sees a probability of the RBA cutting rates by 1% over the next 11 months.
Any corporate news piquing your interest?
The benchmark or indices creators, S&P Dow Jones Indices, are due to release their rebalance of who will be in or out of the ASX200 and the ASX300.
Where are the opportunities for investors?
Firstly, there are dip-buying opportunities ahead for patient, long-term investors. September is historically the worst month of the year for US shares, and it's a bad month for Aussie shares too. But the good news is that the following three months—October, November, December—are traditionally the best time of year for share market returns.
Secondly, with slower GDP and rising prices, it's time to play defense. Consider utilities, staples, and healthcare. Price pressures are starting to creep up in soft commodities too, showing that staples can present investment opportunities. For example, wheat is up 4.5% in five days—meaning we can expect higher chicken prices since wheat accounts for 60% of the cost of raising a chicken. Live cattle prices are also on the rise, up almost 2% in five days. For investors, this means keeping an eye on companies like Elders, Australian Agricultural Co., and Inghams.
WATCH here
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